It's still unclear whether there are second-choice directives from other second-tier candidacies beyond that of It's still unclear whether there are second-choice directives from other second-tier candidacies beyond that of Dennis Kucinich to caucus with Barack Obama, and maybe Obama won't need such green lights because the caucus-goers will make that decision themselves. (I asked David Plouffe about this last night and his stock answer was basically that it matters which county and precinct, which is obviously true but not very helpful.) But the second-choicers will only matter if Obama really has his newbie and indies out. And, though Dana Milbank's survey of the Obama audience last night is entirely anecdotal, and though I do not think Obama's non-resident issue is anywhere near as problematic as Howard Dean's inorganic campaign was four years ago, some of the folks cheering Obama just aren't eligible. At every event, as Milbank points out, Obama asks how many people have never caucused before. Somewhere between 30 percent and 40 percent raise their hands. (This was also true at the Southside Des Moines event both Dana Goldstein I attended on Sunday night.) This showing of hands can be interpreted one of two ways: (1) "Wow, look at all these new people Obama has brought into the process...he's gonna win"; or (2) "Wow, Obama has a serious problem because all these new people have proven time and again that they don't show up to caucus as reliably as they do for rallies and in polls." If it's more #1, he wins...but if it's more #2, he will disappoint. In other words, the degree to which Obama is different from Dean, on this score, is critical. He's different in so many other ways, so those "hoping" for an Obama win can be comforted by that. And historical patterns must end some time, don't they? --Tom Schaller
