It's natural to assume that if you're a member of Congress, you have access to all kinds of inside information, and your job makes you deeply informed about all sorts of issues, particularly whatever is dominating the nation's debate at a particular moment. For some members, that's true. But not all, maybe not even most, and that fact is having a meaningful influence on how the debt-ceiling crisis is playing out.
A lot of the analysis of this debate has been about brinksmanship, the moves and countermoves that the administration and congressional Republicans are using in an attempt to achieve their substantive and political ends. That's important, but we can't forget that a very large group of people who have a role in this decision are operating within a completely different reality than the rest of us. There are members of Congress who genuinely believe that reaching the debt ceiling will be no big deal, and may actually be a good thing, because it will constrain government spending. When they hear Treasury officials or economists tell them that it will be catastrophic to the economy, they just don't believe it. This is in part because they think that if Barack Obama says it, it must be a lie, but also because people they trust are telling them that it's a lie. When they watch Fox News, which they do every day, they hear that the whole thing is overblown. When they listen to Rush Limbaugh, which they do, they hear that it's basically a big hoax. Political leaders they respect and admire tell them the same thing. Sarah Palin says that it's just like TARP, which in their world means crying wolf about impending disaster (that TARP, imperfect though it was, actually forestalled disaster is an idea they don't believe). Michele Bachmann tells them we should not bother to increase the ceiling, because "It's time for tough love."
The assumption for the major players in this debate -- Obama, John Boehner -- is that they realize the consequences but are also influenced by many goals and fears and incentives that make a deal acceptable to all parties difficult to find. But for this other group, a deal with Barack Obama is morally abhorrent on multiple grounds, and they see nothing but positive consequences to killing it. And this Know-Nothing Caucus isn't just a few backbench nutballs. It makes up a significant chunk of the Republican caucus. Keep in mind that 85 House Republicans, or over a third of their caucus, are freshmen. They've been in Congress for only six months. Almost half of them never held elected office before getting elected last November. Most of them are Tea Partiers to one degree or another. They have that most dangerous combination of ignorance and absolute certainty in their beliefs. And unless Boehner can find a way around them, we're pretty much doomed.
