In the next two weeks there will be both a Keystone primary and a touchstone contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And one may affect the other.
After stalling for three long, post-Ohio, Jeremiah Wright-filled weeks during which Obama made no movement on his deficit margin of about three dozen superdelegates, in the past week Obama narrowed Clinton’s superdelegate lead to an estimated two dozen. I remain convinced that Obama’s ability to hit for the cycle by adding an outright lead (or at least tie) among superdelegates to his lead in popular votes, states won and pledged delegates won is as important if not more important than how he performs in Pennsylvania two weeks from today.
In fact, it would be interesting, albeit difficult, if Obama were to pull even before Pennsylvania. On the one hand, catching Hillary among superdelegates could reinforce the notion of Obama's inevitability, thereby helping him on April 22; on the other, it could create yet another rally-round-Hillary moment, helping her that day. If he fails to close the gap before Pennsylvania, it will likewise be interesting to see if his superdelegate progress stalls after (and presuming) she wins Pennsylvania, or if he can still overtake her among superdelegates and use that momentous tipping point as a way to shift the narrative if she in fact wins the Keystone State.
--Tom Schaller
