Thomas Schaller

Thomas F. Schaller is an associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and author of Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South.

Recent Articles


...Obama is going to beat Hillary. The Obama people seem very bouyant, the Clintons not. David Axelrod, Obama campaign chair says he stopped trying to figure out if Clinton is doing down-in-the-mouth routine to lower expectations because they think she's gonna win or because she's going to lose. "I'm over-spun," he said. "Let's just put our cards on the table now." --Tom Schaller


Had a chance to corner, first, Gov. Bill Richardson , and then Sen. Joe Biden , at the Polk County Convention Center, which is ground zero tonight for the caucus results porting. I asked them both about how they felt their campaigns had finished, but also about any deal-making between the campaigns and what they thought might happen among the three top-tier candidates. Richardson, on him making deals, his goal for tonight, and the finish among the Top Three: “There’s no deal. This is typical last-minute rumors. Iowans will make up their own minds. My supporters are going out to support me.” “I’m aiming for final four, which is a good showing. A lot of the undecided are I think breaking our way. We’ve got momentum. I’m feeling good. We’ve got a good organization and I think we will be viable in most precincts.” “I don’t know. Any of the top three in the polls, we detect strength for them, but we detect strength for us, too.” Biden’s answers to same three questions: “There are deals...


Just a stray thought: John Edwards has that great line about the Democratic field being an “embarrassment of riches” and the GOP field just plain being an embarrassment. Though bearing no ill will to Republican spouses as people, isn’t that even more true of the major candidates’ wives and a certain notable husband? Michele Obama was very compelling the other day at an event in Grinnell. Elizabeth Edwards is bold and appealing, and keeps plugging away despite her health situation. And, of course, though Mr. Clinton has his detractors, his political abilities and stardom are not in question. A pack of Teresa Kerry’s this is not. Look: Ann Romney has a compelling health story of her own in battling multiple sclerosis, and I wouldn’t mess with Janet Huckabee because she might could have Cheney -like aim , but, at least among the top Iowa competitors, the Democrats have an undeniable spousal edge. --Tom Schaller


Can we glean anything from the late Democratic polls? Maybe we can. Consider that, absent ties, there are but six possible permutations for the order in a three-way race among Hillary Clinton , Barack Obama and John Edwards : CEO , COE , OCE , OEC , EOC , and ECO . (Some of which make for nice acronyms!) Of these, I can find polls that account for the first four of the possible six orderings. With a hat-tip to today’s Polltrack feature at the National Journal (subscription req.), complemented by the new Reuters/C-Span/Zogby results, here they are: COE : American Research Group CEO : LA Times/Bloomberg OEC : Reuters/C-Span/Zogby OCE : Des Moines Register Maybe this just means the race is too damn close to call. But notice that the only two combinations missing are those with Edwards at the top . He’s consistently second or third...sometimes by a lot, sometimes by a little, but always out of first. It’s difficult not to conclude, even from this jumble and with all the arguments about...


It's still unclear whether there are second-choice directives from other second-tier candidacies beyond that of Dennis Kucinich to caucus with Barack Obama , and maybe Obama won't need such green lights because the caucus-goers will make that decision themselves. (I asked David Plouffe about this last night and his stock answer was basically that it matters which county and precinct, which is obviously true but not very helpful.) But the second-choicers will only matter if Obama really has his newbie and indies out. And, though Dana Milbank's survey of the Obama audience last night is entirely anecdotal, and though I do not think Obama's non-resident issue is anywhere near as problematic as Howard Dean's inorganic campaign was four years ago, some of the folks cheering Obama just aren't eligible. At every event, as Milbank points out, Obama asks how many people have never caucused before. Somewhere between 30 percent and 40 percent raise their hands. (This was also true at the...