Remember the "jobless recovery" of 1992 and 93? Well, this recovery is
worse.
The only reason the official unemployment rate hasn't risen above 6 percent is
because a lot of people have stopped looking for work, and if you're no longer
looking, you're no longer counted among the unemployed.
In the past 22 months, since the recession officially began, American employers
have eliminated a total of 1 and three-quarter million jobs. That's more jobs
than were lost in the last recession. In fact, by 1993, employment had already
picked up again. Not this time. Manufacturers have been cutting jobs now for 29
straight months -- the longest period of manufacturing cutbacks since the Great
Depression.
You see the vicious cycle, here: More job cuts means more people afraid of
losing their jobs. So they tighten their belts and cut back spending. They cut
back spending and companies sell less. Companies that sell less have to cut
costs, including jobs. And down it goes. This jobless recovery -- worse than
the last jobless recovery -- could dip right back into recession, or worse.
The White House is using these worrisome job numbers to push its new economic
plan. But just about everyone -- including White House officials, including
card-carrying Supply-Side economists -- agrees that whatever this plan is, its
primary effect won't be to stimulate the current economy.
Look, three things have to happen, and they have to happen soon. First, the Fed
has to cut interest rates again. I realize rates are already so low the Fed has
almost run out of running room, but another cut is essential.
Second, Congress has to pass and the President has to sign a tax cut that puts
money directly into the pockets of people who will spend it, and spend it soon.
Now, I've been pushing a payroll tax holiday -- exempt the first 15 to 20
thousand dollars of income from payroll taxes for a year. Maybe there's a
better idea out there. Whatever it is, do it. We're running out of time.
Finally, because this isn't just an American problem -- the slowdown is
worldwide -- we've got to signal to the European Central Bank, the Bank of
Japan, the Bank of England, and the International Monetary Fund that this is
the time to put more money into circulation. The danger of global deflation is
larger than the threat of global inflation. Having a coordinated response is
better than placing the entire burden on the United States.
This economy is hurting, and so are a lot of people. Enough political
posturing.