One issue that's wasn't on the agenda at this week's White House economic gabfest was China. But it should have been. Having just returned from Down Under, I can attest to China's growing power.
The giant sucking sound you hear in Southeast Asia these days is raw
materials being pulled into China from all quarters -- iron ore and
coking coal from Australia, nickel and copper from South America, food
from everywhere. The giant grinding sound you hear is Chinese factories, now consuming more than a quarter of the world's steel, producing more steel than the United States and Japan combined, manufacturing more of everything than any other nation. Indeed, China has doubled its share of world manufacturing exports in the last decade. And the giant gushing sound you hear is Chinese financial capital, buying up whatever it needs all over Southeast Asia, and even propping up the dollar.
As China's influence grows, America's wanes. Australian business
executives tell me they're more interested in their new trade pact with
China than in their new trade accord with the United States. The
exploding Chinese demand for raw materials is fueling Australia's boom.
And China's economic power translates directly into political power.
Australia's conservative government -- which had been willing to send
some 200 troops into Iraq as part of the broad "coalition of the
willing" -- now defies Washington by assuring the UN Secretary General of its full support, in the face of White House criticisms.
And, of course, China's new influence extends far beyond the Pacific.
The European Union is now eagerly responding to China's request to lift
the arms embargo imposed after the 1989 massacre in Tiananmen Square -- China's newest crackdown on political and civil rights notwithstanding.
With China holding more than a half a trillion dollars of United States
debt, it also largely determines what happens to the dollar. America's
dependence on Chinese financial capital means that China has a big
influence over American domestic policy -- for example, over whether
George W. Bush can borrow trillions more to finance his plans to privatize
Social Security and make his tax cuts permanent, without sending
long-term interest rates into the stratosphere. And also how far Alan
Greenspan has to go in raising short-term interest rates to ward off
inflation.
In short, China is now a significant player in the American economy and
in American politics, even though few American politicians actually dare admit it.
Robert B. Reich is co-founder of The American Prospect.