Where did the 8 million job figure come from? The Romer/Berstein report estimated 3.7 million more jobs in 2010Q4 assuming a $775 billion package.

do the "jobs created" numbers also take into account
jobs not destroyed thanks to the stimulus?

The context of this debate is that last week there was close to 600,000 new job less claims. Perhaps when the Washington Post starts laying off reporters, then they might start getting interest in the substance of policy and not the silly games that Republicans play. he sf's and Greg Mankiw's of the world would prefer that Obama adopt a combination of Herbert and Dubya Bush economics (it has really worked great the last eight years has it not? well, just ignore the last eight years of miserable economic performance where the only growth was the result of an unsustainable historic bubble in housing). Everyday I commute through traffic to D.C., is see bottlenecks, potholes, and bridges that are actually decaying before my eyes. VDOT has a dozen major projects in the works scheduled for 2008 and 2009 that they they have had to deferred because the Republican controlled house of Delegates refuses to adjust the gas tax and vehicle fees from where they were set back in the 1980s. A lot of inflation since then, and more projects are being deferred because Virginia is losing revenue because of the recession. Stores and restaurants are closing left and right, and sf thinks a "stimulus" will destroy jobs because Mankiw and Barro and the rest of hte Chicago school care more for their precious ideology then they do for the welfare of their country.

When the stimulus will stop, its effects will surely continue for a certain time. This too should be taken into account.

Rick, I think you misread sf's comment. Perhaps it would have been clearer if he had said "jobs saved" rather than "jobs not destroyed."

Plus this Republican line of thinking discounts the economic utility of everything produced to zero.

Measuring the cost of something like the Golden Gate Bridge in terms of dollars per construction job created in 1939 does not capture the total future economic utility.

Now if the entire spending package ends up being spent on the equivalent of repainting park benches then some of this criticism would make sense. But to the extent that it jump starts the buildout of a new efficient power grid or provides enough economy of scale to permanently make solar power a default in new construction it makes little sense to reduce it simply to dollars per job created over the short run.

Bruce Webb wrote, Plus this Republican line of thinking discounts the economic utility of everything produced to zero.

Hardly. They love it when it lines the pockets of shareholders of firms that produce weapons, for example.

$272,000 IS a hell of a lot cheaper than what it cost to own a banker. Apparently it takes $25 bilion per quarter to keep one employed.

Wait. Why are you multiplying by the. Number of years? What the heck is a job-year?

I hope that Obama, his economic team, and Congress can work together to get a sensible stimulus package passed quickly. I suppose I consider the other aspects of the stimulus package even more important than the direct job-creation numbers or the cost per job created.

I recently saw articles on a few newspaper websites talking about how Obama was working with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to make sure that the stimulus package was smart and effective at fixing the economic problems, now and into the future. I take that as a very positive sign, since Democrats haven't always worked closely with the business community.

The main points of their discussions have been making sure that the stimulus package includes tax relief, infrastructure funding, housing industry tax credits to assist homeowners, and reducing borrower & lending fees through the Small Business Administration. Of course, there are other items that need to be in the stimulus package, but I agree with all four of those ideas.

I noticed that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is asking for input from the public to let them know which of those proposals they support the most. The Chamber can then use that data in their discussions with Obama and members of Congress. Make sure to vote in their poll here - http://www.friendsoftheuschamber.com/email/email4.cfm?id=196

Plus, of course, and this should always be mentioned, you get very valuable stuff, that is a great investment, like:

Roads

Rail

Electrical Grid

Schools

Tremendous Research and Advancement of Science, Technology, and Medicine

Wind Farms

Super Computers

Parks

Etc.

Etc.

Etc.

high return investments that due to well established in economics pure free market problems will be grossly underprovided by the pure free market.

That's far better than tax cuts for the rich that get us yachts, $500 meals, and $10,000 suits instead.

You need to add in the jobs SAVED through aid to the states. A job saved is at least as valuable as a job created. Preventing teacher, fire fighters, police, sanitation layoffs is easier and cheaper than starting new jobs from scratch.

Dean,

I think you are being too conservative by extrapolating the job-years over only two years.

That two-year period is merely the period of the job-creation process, but the jobs themselves (and the production they create) will last into an indefinite futre. As one poster suggested, the analogy may be to a bridge (or other capital investment) with a two year up-front cost but a long-term stream of value in return. "Human capital", as good conservative economists (think Gary Becker) ought to know, must be similarly valued.

So, the actual cost is well below $65k per year to the taxpayer, and could even be a "negative cost," i.e., a positive investment, over the period in which the jobs and the value of the production from those jobs goes forward. Econometric work would be needed to fine-tune any statistical analysis, but the theory seems sound.

What do you think?

David Strickler

4 million jobs x 2 years = 8 million job years.

Perhaps we should invest in math education as well.

A creation of 4 millions jobs each year, during 2 years, give 8 millions jobs.

(4M jobs / 1 yr) x 2 yrs= 8M jobs
or
4M jobs x (2 yrs /1 yr)=
4M jobs x 2 = 8M jobs

1st year : 4M jobs
2nd year: 4M jobs
---------- ---------
total: 8M jobs