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Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting

Media Overlook Fed Bailout in Plain View

Can’t the media find any economists who don’t think that handing hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to the big banks and the incredibly rich people who own and manage them is a good idea? Apparently not, given the coverage so far to the Fed’s proposal to lend $200 billion to the banks using mortgage backed securities as collateral.

The workings of the Fed and the financial markets can appear complicated, so let’s simplify matters a bit to make it more clear what is going on here. Suppose that it was suddenly discovered that much of the wealth held by the country’s leading financial institutions was in fact counterfeit. Instead of having hundreds of billions of dollars of real currency in their vaults, institutions like Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, and Bears Stearns actually had hundreds of billions of dollars of counterfeit currency. Suppose further that the public did not know exactly who held what in terms of counterfeit currency, only that all of them had a lot of it. (The point here is that these banks hold mortgage backed securities, many of which are only worth a fraction of their face value, and therefore can be viewed as the equivalent of counterfeit currency.)

In such circumstances, investors would be very reluctant to accept the credit of any of the major financial institutions. They couldn’t know whether most of their assets were in fact counterfeit, and they were dealing with a bankrupt institution, or whether the counterfeit currency was only a limited share of the wealth, which would not jeopardize the institution’s ability to meet its obligations.

This is in fact the credit squeeze that we’ve have recently witnessed. The spread between the interest rates on a wide variety of assets and the interest rate on safe assets (U.S. government debt) has soared. As a result, the Fed’s effort to stimulate the economy, by lowering the federal funds rate, has been largely unsuccessful because other interest rates have remained high.

In response to this situation the Fed today announced that it would lend $200 billion to banks and other financial firms, accepting mortgage backed securities as collateral. This is effectively the same as saying that the Fed is going to lend money to banks and accept the counterfeit currency as collateral, treating it just as though it were real money.

The intended effect of this policy is to convince other investors that the counterfeit currency is in fact real currency, or at the very least that there is a really huge sucker out there (the Fed) which is prepared to treat the counterfeit currency as real currency.

So how does this story play out? Well, insofar as the Fed is successful, the counterfeit currency retains its value for a while longer. This allows Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Bears Stearns and the rest of the big boys more time to dump their counterfeit currency on suckers who haven’t figured out how the game is played.

It is possible that they won’t be able to find enough suckers, in which case these banks will end up defaulting on their loans and the Fed (i.e. the government ) has lost tens or hundreds of billions dollars paying good money for counterfeit currency. Alternatively, perhaps the big boys are successful and can offload enough of their counterfeit money to restore themselves to solvency before the music stops. Then the Fed is repaid, but the counterfeit money now sits in the hands of other, less informed, or less inside, investors.

Either way, this is a policy of dubious merit. Why wouldn’t we want the banks to be forced to come clean and eat their losses? This is always the policy that the economists advocate when the parties in question are not the big New York banks. Does anyone remember the East Asian financial crisis when the media was full of condemnations of crony capitalism and the IMF insisted imposed stringent conditions on South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia as a condition of getting bailed out? At that time, everyone insisted on transparency. Aren’t there any economists who still have this perspective? If so, why aren’t their views appearing anywhere in the news?

There is one other issue that is extremely important that has been completely omitted from the media’s discussion of the Fed’s actions. There are people who have shorted the counterfeit notes (mortgage backed securities and related assets) because they recognized that these assets were in fact going to lose much of their value. While these short sellers were trying to make money, they were actually performing a valuable public service. They were pushing down the price of these assets towards their true level. If we had many such short sellers in the market we would not have seen the housing bubble grow to such dangerous proportions. The same holds true of the stock bubble.

However, if the Fed acts to sustain bubbles even after they have started to collapse under the pressure of their own weight, it makes it far more risky for short sellers. This means that even investors who realize that Citigroup has nothing but counterfeit currency will be reluctant to short its stock or other assets supported by counterfeit currency. As a result we can expect to see even bigger more dangerous bubbles in the future.

This is not a pretty story and there are economists who can make this point. The media should be talking to them, not just the cheerleaders for the housing bubble.

--Dean Baker



COMMENTS

Although the trends have been there since 1980, the election of George W. Bush in 2000 marked the ascendancy of crony capitalism and establishment of "New South" social class of bourbons who view themselves as America's "productive class." The profits are for this class, the losses for commoners.

Dr. Ha-Joon Chang, author of Bad Samaritans (a book which questions the neoliberal consensus on such matters) might be a good one for the media to seek out... but so far, there has been an echoing silence in response to his fine book.

If we're going to be Keynsians, lets be Keynsians... rather than propping up failed institutions, we could nationalize them. We could fund public works and repair the roads, we could pay for children's health care...

But no. Instead, we'll just bail out some obscenely wealthy banks... and as if that wasn't quite bad enough, even were one of these wealthy bankers to be fired, it would be with a multi-million dollar severance package.

There are people out there buying that stuff? Please, please, tell me that's not true. Is there anyone out there who doesn't know that the mortgage paper is worth pennies on the dollar? We don't need more economists. We need to stop putting stupid pills in the water.

As one of those short the market, today I lost a third of my (unrealized) profits. I also lost on my intermediate-term bond holdings.

I am left dumbfounded by the Fed's actions.

A number of the institutions being bailed out by this continue to pay large bonuses to the incompetent managers who did the counterfeiting.

But I guess they weren't really incompetent -- if the Fed is ready to buy counterfeits with real money (but does any of it deserve to ebcalled "real" now?), counterfeiting is smart.

And saving is really dumb.

I don't see anyone buying that crap, so I don't get the Feds logic.

Isn't that $300 billion so far to loan their member institutions at below market rates, or exchange for worthless paper, to guarantee billions of profits to prevent major financial failures for the idiotic and well-heeled lenders?

And only at a cost of a very rapidly dropping dollar and inflation about to heat up like no one can believe.

How long can they keep this Rube Goldberg financial contraption spinning before it all falls apart?

I can't recall who at the Columbia School of Journalism did the study I'm thinking about but one very striking fact stuck to my memory: a majority of journalists (especially those with 10 years or less of working experience) considered that fact checking was not part of their job description!

Given this frame of mind, is it any wonder that the media keep on mindlessly typing the pablum that the PR agencies and the spokepersons for the powerful and well-connected?

Colbert's parody of the Washington press corp at the media meeting in DC was spot on.


Here's a novel question: When the financial instituions pledge these worthless assets as collateral, who will determine the value of the "pledged assets"?
Does anyone really know the "value" of these securites?

Bailouts for industries are common, and the probability of a bailout when things go bad is factored into the present value calculations of their investments (at least implicitly).

The bailouts are made by the politicos who figure that the bailouts increase their own future income stream (from grateful business leaders), and are factoring in these increases into their own present value calculations.

Dean and others:

First, the Fed isn't actually buying the bad loans, right? It still has recourse against the banks. Collateral is just collateral. In a normal transaction it would come into play only if the debtor doesn't pay.

Second, the Fed doesn't need to (and is it?) accept the bad paper at face value. The fed can say "we will let you use subprime paper as collateral but only at a percentage of the face value."

Third, isn't the most likely scenario one not mentioned by Dean: the banks and fed simply keep rolling over the 28-day loans until the loans are paid back. There's still a subsidy to the bank, in the form of the low interest rate, but not as big a subsidy as Dean's post implies. (I think.)

"It is possible that they won’t be able to find enough suckers, in which case these banks will end up defaulting on their loans and the Fed (i.e. the government ) has lost tens or hundreds of billions dollars paying good money for counterfeit currency."

Dean, two questions: is this collateral literally worthless - the fed seems to be imposing a haircut of some kind, no? and can they just walk away from these loans ("jingle mail to the fed")? I would think they'd only default if they go into bankruptcy...

Mark wrote, Third, isn't the most likely scenario one not mentioned by Dean: the banks and fed simply keep rolling over the 28-day loans until the loans are paid back.

But what if they'll never be paid back in full?

I guess the Fed could demand and perhaps is demanding that the bank take a haircut, e.g. Fed offers 90 cents on the dollar.

But I doubt the Fed will demand a haircut that reflects best estimates of the true value of the securities.

Maybe it shouldn't be news to ANYONE, since it's a loan only for 28 FRIGGING DAYS!

It doesn't make the problem go away. It only provides a little more morphine to the terminal patient.

I am not an economist, but as I see it the problem here is that the "Feds" are only federal by name. The Federal Reserve is owned by private banks. So all they do is using tax-payer money to bail them self out.
As simple as that.

The issue is that we cannot decouple the banks from the system as a whole. Thus there are two options:

1. Save everyone, including undeserving Wall St. fat cats.

2. Punish everyone, including John Q. Public.

I think most economists are completely aware of the moral hazard of bailing out people who don't deserve it, but they'd rather do that than jeapordize the whole system and put each and every American at risk to lose all their savings and investments should the market crash.

Lesser of two evils. And true, when it was East Asia, we took the "lets punish everyone path" and it was a pretty dick thing to do and we got a lot of crap for it, but if you hate that we did that to them, why would you want to do it to us? Two wrongs don't make a right.

PS. If you can figure out how to punish the bad guys without punishing the rest of us, I'm totally game. But seriously, it is NOT in the public interest whatsoever for a major institution like Citibank to go under. The damage from that would far exceed the cost of a bailout.

Unfortunately, Nylund is on to something. I really want to punish, not reward the bad actors. He also uses the term moral hazard with respect to the banks, which is appropriate. But aside from making a point about the utter faithlessness of financial institutions to the commonwealth, I'm not sure what else can be done. Letting any of these institutions fail probably means the failure of all. And that means throwing the whole family out with the bath water.

Dean,

Let's have some accurate facts: Feds currently only accepts the Fannie Mae and gov't agency type MBS as loan collaterals. They are not accepting privately-issued MBS. Second, Feds will use a collateral margin (cushion) on the MBS--not a dollar for a dollar.

The subsidy comes in the form that institutions have liquid funds on low rate.

If MBS value declines further, institutions will need to pony up more MBS to maintain that collateral margin. The MBS value is priced regularly (of course with high volatility now).

Not exactly all counterfeit.

Oh, I am more than a little stunned that none of your readers knew about this important fact and point this out.

Yes, institutions might not be able to use the same MBS to get good percentage of cash (loan to value ratio) and at such good rate.

Is this bad enough to say counterfeit money? If the MBS declines in value, write-down will be made to the collateral and more will be needed to keep a safe margin.

Nyland wrote, The issue is that we cannot decouple the banks from the system as a whole. Thus there are two options:

But it's possible yours is a false dichotomy.

If you read Dean's other posts, you'll see there's possibly a third option: if a bank is going to fail, the government seizes it and puts it in receivership, and continues operating the bank. Recapitalization occurs only after shareholder equity is wiped out, and all higher level executives are terminated without golden parachutes.

There is only one way to reflate the currency without rewarding those who drove it to ruin and punishing those who are blameless, the tax payer. The direct payment of money to the public at large, on a per capita basis, for as long as it takes. It could be done on the same authority as Lincoln's green backs. The treasury department could simply print the notes.

Liberal quoted Nyland who went on to write:


Nyland wrote, The issue is that we cannot decouple the banks from the system as a whole. Thus there are two options:

But it's possible yours is a false dichotomy.

If you read Dean's other posts, you'll see there's possibly a third option: if a bank is going to fail, the government seizes it and puts it in receivership, and continues operating the bank. Recapitalization occurs only after shareholder equity is wiped out, and all higher level executives are terminated without golden parachutes.


I would go one better Liberal.
ANY executive found to have actively pursued this fraud on the American people will be prosecuted.

Who the hell am I kidding.

One word to American's, Roubini...get to know him.

And pray

The Chrysler bailout suggests a solution less radical than nationalization. As a kicker for its loans, the government gets warrants for a substantial percent ownership. If the banks recover, their stock goes up, the government exercises and sells at a profit. Shareholders suffer dilution. Tough.

The mortgage market mess does seem to play into the hands of big banks/big buissness. I am not opposed to helping a family stay in their home, for example: If a loan was issued with a very low teaser rate and then jumps to 12%, this loan ought to be refinanced by the Fed at a reasonable rate, say 6%. This is good for everone. But if the bailout is intended to compensate banks for the unrealized profit, (the difference between 6% and 12% over 30 years) then I am definately opposed. If this is what them mean by bailout then we need to look at charging our political leaders criminally.

I would go one better Liberal.
ANY executive found to have actively pursued this fraud on the American people will be prosecuted.

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