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The Ill Informed Is Learning: The Recession Will Be Bad
USA Today tells us that: "It's been almost an article of faith: Any recession this year will be mild and brief."
That may have been an article of faith from those who get their economic outlook from tea leaves and other mystical processes, but those of us who rely on economic data knew that a downturn was likely to be very bad and said this quite clearly.
It is unfortunate that reporters relied almost exclusively on ill-informed economists as their sources during the run-up to the recession. Remarkably most articles on the economy, including this one, continue to rely almost exclusively on economists who were surprised by the economy. While their statements of surprise can make interesting reading, it would also be useful to include the views of economists who were not surprised by the economy.
--Dean Baker
COMMENTS (8)
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Posted by: Dean Baker | March 23, 2008 4:51 PM
dean how bad will the recession be?
Posted by: ash | March 23, 2008 6:29 PM
Shouldn't it be "the ill-informed are learning?"
Posted by: BC | March 23, 2008 6:43 PM
I think he's making a reference to Bush's "The Children is Learning" gaffe.
Posted by: Mr Duncan | March 23, 2008 6:57 PM
Yep, Mr. Duncan gets it right. I was referring to our president.
Posted by: Dean Baker | March 23, 2008 10:28 PM
I found it interesting that when talking about the economy, news organizations do not want to listen to pessimistic views. But, when we hear about national security, the pessimistic view is always prevalent. Mr Baker, why do you think news organizations avoid to publish opinions like yours?
Posted by: thomas | March 24, 2008 9:15 AM
I have stopped listening to The Ill Informed about economics.
Isn't there a snappily-named index out there which numerically shows the rise of TV ads for pawn shops, credit counseling, debt restructuring, and secondary mortgages?
Cos it seems all that's been increasing steadily for over a year now. Not that I expect USA Today to know.
Posted by: ThresherK | March 24, 2008 12:33 PM
We now fall into recession. Almost all of us feel the devastating effect of recession. The state budget of California needs some serious help; perhaps they should get payday loans. The state is already running a budget deficit of a few billion, is poised to hit over $11 billion very soon, and if left unchecked, could hit $25 billion or more by next summer. According to a recent article in the San Francisco Gate, governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has called legislators into session for an emergency budget overhaul. He has called for slashed spending and increases in taxes in order to combat the budget shortfall. The state budget has had severe negative impacts this year, by Southern California's wildfires that destroyed thousands of homes, layoffs and a shrinking housing market. The housing market hits especially hard in a state that derives so much income from the one of the most expensive housing markets in the nation, and a decrease in the amount of homes purchased coupled with less property tax revenue makes for a near crippling blow to the state's income. The Governator has decried the lack of action all year, and calls for quick action, which is exactly what you should do if you find yourself in a budget crisis. Remember that you have options, and one of them is payday loans. Click to read more on Installment Loans.
Posted by: Lisa P | December 6, 2008 5:42 AM