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CBO Reports That If Health Care Wrecks the Economy We Will Have a Very Serious Deficit Problem
The Post (a.k.a. Fox on 15th Street) only told readers the second part of this story. CBO projected that the deficit would exceed 42 percent of GDP in 2080 under its baseline assumptions. This is like telling people what the deficit would be after a nuclear war without calling attention to the fact that the projection assumes a nuclear war. If the health care costs underlying these projections prove accurate, the economy will be so badly wrecked, no one will care about the size of the deficit.
-- Dean Baker
COMMENTS (9)
If the health care costs underlying these projections prove accurate, the economy will be so badly wrecked, no one will care about the size of the deficit.
Not necessarily so.
Posted by: Floccina | June 26, 2009 12:31 PM
In fact, this model is not impossible. If workers opt to take the benefits of higher productive growth in the form of leisure time, a continual increase in the length of retirement and shortening of normal work lives is entirely workable. Since there is a strong correlation between income and greenhouse gas emissions, this approach is extremely desirable from an environmental perspective.
In fact, this model is not impossible. If workers opt to take the benefits of higher productive growth in the form healthcare, a continual increase in healthcare spending is entirely workable.
Posted by: Floccina | June 26, 2009 12:37 PM
Er, excuse me folks, the main basis of "productivity" growth over the past 150 years was the "drawdown" (in William Catton's apt term) of exhaustible fossil fuels at ever increasing rates of use. That situation is obviously unsustainable and can only lead to a crash of the economy and population unless, at a minimum, it can be honestly faced. So an honest economist, for example, would point out that the CBO projections are absurd for that reason - or at least _discuss_ the issue at some point in his years of voluminous commentaries ("telling people ... without pointing out that the projection assumes...")
I do agree with the spirit of Dean's final comment, however. All the talk about the debt being foisted on younger generations is beside the point. In all probability, they will inherit a collapsed living arrangement, not large debt payments.
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