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Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting

Senator McCain Calls Social Security a "Disgrace:" Media Don't Notice

For folks not familiar with Social Security, it is the country's biggest social program. It costs over $600 billion a year (20 percent of the federal budget) and has 50 million beneficiaries.

At a forum on Monday, after wrongly claiming that Social Security won't be there when young workers retire, McCain went on to say:

"Americans have got to understand that we are paying present-day retirees with the taxes paid by young workers in America today. And that's a disgrace. It's an absolute disgrace, and it's got to be fixed." [Transcript available from Congressional Quarterly]

Of course present-day retirees have always been paid their benefits from the taxes paid by current workers. That has been true from Social Security's inception.

Some folks might have thought Senator McCain's description of Social Security as a "disgrace" was worth a mention somewhere in the media, but the NYT, Washington Post, WSJ, and USA Today don't seem to have noticed. It's not like he said "bitter."

--Dean Baker



COMMENTS

Does not fit the narrative, and besides, all their editors and network executives share McCain's opinion. They just did not recognize it as "news." It will be up to Obama's people to catch this and amplify it in their conference calls with the media.

I doubt if most people understand some of the most basic facts about Social Security, such as:

1) Most of the tax money collected goes directly to present retirees and disabled persons - none of it goes to "the government" for spending on welfare or any other programs.

2) The rest of the SS tax money goes into the Trust Fund, and will eventually be paid back to those being taxed now, with interest, unless the law is changed.

If the public, many members of the commentariat and politicians were aware of these basic facts the situation could be quite different. That is, it may not be much use to talk about projections and advantages/disadvantages of specific privatization plans etc., because many people oppose SS, or are doubtful about it, under the impression that their SS tax money is being taken by the government and spent on things of which they disapprove such as welfare or earmarks.

People should just talk to their parents and grandparents about what percentage of their retirement incomes come from Social Security and then figure out how much of their own incomes they'd have to pay their relatives to provide that income. Then they'd think of it as an insurance system that enables younger workers to buy houses, put their own children through college and take vacations.

we are paying present-day Senators, Presidents, farmers soldiers etc with the taxes paid by young workers in America today. So what?

By the way, I understand why you have to have the code to enter but I think you could make it a bit clearer.

Dean:

Since you are always pounding the media for not providing enough numbers for readers to have proper context, you should include the number on the falling ratio of workers to recipients.

(this is not an endorsement of McCain or his ideas)

Well, this is just another instance of McCain being protected by a spellbound media.

Why isn't McCain worried that our children and grandchildren will be taxed to pay for the deficits run up to support the Iraq war and the Bush tax cuts?

Actually, McCain didn't "wrongly claim that Social Security won't be there."

He merely refused to disabuse his questioner of that premise.

He's one slick SOB that McCain! He's even got Paul Krugman writing that maybe he doesn't understand SS. Oh, he understands alright!

Q: Many of the proposals that are being created for people of my generation no longer include Social Security because of the belief it will not be there. Tell me how you plan to fix it.

MCCAIN: Thank you very much. I’d like to start out by giving you a little straight talk. Under the present set-up, because we've mortgaged our children's futures, you will not have Social Security benefits that present-day retirees have unless we fix it.

You don't give a technically-correct answer like that by mistake.

Save the Rustbelt,

I made this point over on economists view, but maybe it got lost in the shuffle.

Everybody, Dean most certainly included, is well aware of the changing worker to retiree ratio. However, obviously you have been taken in by those who make a big deal about it. In fact, the US is in the best shape on this one of any of the high income countries. Many countries right now have the ratio (2 to 1) that all the hysterics freak out over the US having some decades from now. All of these countries are paying their old folks pensions just fine, some of them (such as Germany) substantially more generously than we are, and without massively borrowing from foreign countries to do so.

Don't be such a sucker for stupid propaganda, STR. This remark was way beneath you.

I am not surprised by Senator McCain's comments. This has been a Republican mantra for many years. They all hate Social Security as one of the last vestiges of FDR's New Deal. Sadly, it is not McCain I am afraid of. It is the millions of Americans who don't understand how Social Security works and will vote for this man because what he says sounds somehow logical to them. I am weary of Americans who continue to vote against their own interest either because they are uninformed or because they vote for single issue agendas. I am weary to the point of exhaustion with politics and politicians generally. Very few of them, Democrat or Republican, is actually in Congress as the representative of their constituents or "We the People" of this country. They are all (except for a tiny minority) beholden to big money – Obama is no exception, though he pretends to be. I do not see much difference between the two parties – at least in the way they operate in the Congress and Senate. I am a liberal Democrat from Cincinnati, Ohio (yes, there are a few of us), but I have lost faith in my own party and am considering sitting this race out altogether. The only thing that will bring me to the poles in November is the fear of who might be nominating the next Supreme Court Justice. PS, just heard the Senate passed the telecom immunity bill 69-28. R.I.P. 4th Ammendment.

Robin L.,

I like Dean would prefer that Obama advocate leaving social security entirely alone. However, I do not see your comments about Obama as making any sense. His proposal has its problems, but it is about the least damaging one that has been put up. I certainly do not see how a fica increase on high income people plays into the hands of the insurance industry. It also avoids the benefit cuts of various sorts, and certainly is not the privatization, that we see coming out of McCain and some of the Dem candidates.

Robin L. wrote,
I am a liberal Democrat from Cincinnati, Ohio (yes, there are a few of us), but I have lost faith in my own party and am considering sitting this race out altogether.

Remember, the perfect is the enemy of the good.

I don't much like the Democratic Congress, either. Many are too far to the right for me, and the leadership is a bunch of cowards.

But because of our stupid "first past the post" voting system, there's no room for third parties in America. (I guess an individual state could change how it votes, but I'm not sure.)

Anyhow, I agree the FISA vote is a disgrace. It was 68-29-3 (Y/N/not voting). But look at the votes: every single no vote was a Democrat, except for Sanders, an independent.

Thus, while the Democratic Party is pretty pathetic in many ways, the Republican thugs must be stopped before they destroy this country.

Skeptonomist avers: "2) The rest of the SS tax money goes into the Trust Fund, and will eventually be paid back to those being taxed now, with interest, unless the law is changed."

Well, yeah. But the Trust fund gives that extra dough to the Treasury for those bonds in the Trust Fund. What do you think the Treasury does with the cash? Hide it in the basement?

You can do better than this, sceptoguy.

Robin, if there is anybody who doesn't understand how Social Security works, send them to look at:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Tts2uTWt6e8

"But the Trust fund gives that extra dough to the Treasury for those bonds in the Trust Fund."

As I said, those were basic facts. Of course the government uses the money it borrows from the Trust Fund (ultimately, from future SS recipients), just as it uses the money it borrows from anyone else. The point is that the money belongs to those who pay into SS, and under present law they will get it back, unless they succomb to the propaganda and allow the law to be changed.

The Trust Fund also serves the nefarious purpose of temporarily concealing the real size of deficits, since politicians include the payments into it as income (not borrowing) and nobody calls them on it. But this is just dishonesty in characterizing the budget, not a real transfer of money.

When it comes time to start using the Trust Fund to pay retirees, that debt will most likely be replaced by borrowing from other people, such as the Chinese, or whoever else we are running a trade deficit with at that time.

There is no social security crisis, only a crisis in fact checking the fear mongers.

Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs
A SUMMARY OF THE 2008 ANNUAL REPORTS
March 26, 2008
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/trsummary.html

The Social Security Program at Present is comprised of these entities:
* The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund
* The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund
* The Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund
* The Medicare Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund

Highlights:
1) The total net revenues for 2007 yielded a surplus of $220.8 billion. [Social Security made a profit of $220.8 billion last year]

2) There is now $2.6074 trillion dollars in surplus revenue that has accumulated over the past 24 years. Every one of those years ran a surplus. That surplus reserve of money earned $128.9 billion in government bond investment interest income during 2007.

3) In 2007, those combined trust fund assets earned interest at an effective annual rate of 5.3 percent.

4) $29.2 billion in income taxes were paid by individuals on various social security incomes during 2007.

5) The yearly interest income on the accumulated surplus will help pay for benefits until 2028. After that, the accumulated surplus itself will be drawn down until only the yearly payroll tax revenue is left sometime in 2041. At that point the continuing payroll tax revenue stream will be able to provide an estimated 78% of expected payments in 2041 dollars.

6) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate is that the above date of 2041 for the accumulated surplus exhaustion will not occur until 2052. At that point the payroll tax revenue stream will provide 81% of expected payments in 2052 dollars.

7) The combined assets of just the OASI and DI Trust Funds are projected to increase to $4.273 trillion at the beginning of 2017.

From the Admitting-I-Was-Wrong Department:

McCain has now (yesterday) "clarified" his earlier response in that Denver Q&A.

And he made it worse, of course:

"I don't think it's fair, and I think it's terrible to ask people to pay into a system that they won't receive benefits from. That's why we have to fix it."

"that they won't receive benefits from"

OK, before I thought he was being sharp. Now he can only be called an ignoramus or a liar -- I am myself inclined quite strongly to the latter view, but whatever...

At any rate, McCain's clearly relying on our ignorance of the facts of the SS system.

And that's probably a safe bet for McCain -- in our ludicrous press there's next to no appetite, willingness or, seemingly, ability to present the facts.

Senator McCain was correct. It is a disgrace. Period. He turned to one of his friends who had been in the Congress back in President Reagan's time and bragged that they had leadership which passed legislation and 'fixed' social security. It was not 'fixed'. It had a band-aid applied. That's all.

I'm 59 and had an accounting firm for over 20 years from the early 70's to the early 90s. I saw the direct effect of social security on people from all economic levels and it wasn't pretty back then and it still looks ugly now.

Recently, I did an elderly woman's tax return which she had to file to get another government handout, the Tax Stimulus payment. This elderly woman's only income was a little over $6,000 per year with no other income at all, even food stamps which I told her she would qualify but she didn't want a handout. How someone can live on $6,000 a year is beyond me. If that isn't a disgrace for the worlds 'richest' nation, I don't know what is but, after all, we spend more on pets than we do on the homeless.

In 1976, I presented my opinion to then Congressman Bill Dickinson on why Social Security needed to be abolished and replaced with an actuarial based plan. He said I didn't care anything about old people yet I was working for dozens of old people in my town and social security was no 'real' security.

Listen, the current system was fine when you had dozens of people working for each person drawing benefits which was decades ago. But now you have less than 3 people working for each person drawing some type of government benefits and that is a problem. It is projected that by the mid 2000's, that number will drop to less than 2 people working. Look at your social security statement and you will see they that they project that only about 80% of benefits can be paid by 2041 unless changes are made.

What changes? Basically there are only three. You can extend the retirement age WHICH Congress does not want to do. You can reduce benefits WHICH Congress does not want to do. You can increase taxes WHICH Congress does not want to do. Why? Because the one rule for any politician is GET RE-ELECTED. So they continue to issue bonds to the Social Security fund, take that money and spend for yearly general fund expenses (like a credit card) and then brag to their constituents how much they are doing for them. It's a downright shame because one day, there won't be enough funds to 'legally steal' and then the 'crap' will hit the fan. At that time, our children and grandchildren will have to live with the failures of their parents and grandparents. We have mortgaged their future.

The only feasible solution that I can see is the same plan I offered to Congressman Dickinson in 1976. A 25 year phase out of social security with a phase in of a completely new retirement system which is actuarially based meaning that your retirement is based on what you have paid into the plan. That way, you give it time for the current social security recipients to die out (I'll probably be one of them) and still not have their benefits affected.

Our country didn't get into this mess in just a few years. It has been decades in the making and will take leadership as well as decades to resolve.

Luke: "Look at your social security statement and you will see they that they project that only about 80% of benefits can be paid by 2041 unless changes are made." That's 80% of scheduled benefits, which is 120% of today's benefits, inflation adjusted. But the bigger way they are misleading us is that they are talking about the Middle-Cost Scenario, which is neither a projection nor a prediction. Indeed every year there are three scenarios mandated by law: and the real economy has been headed toward the Low-Cost Scenario -- which would mean no shortfall, ever. If you want to complain about an actual mess, look at medical spending. Social Security is least of our problems, and John McCain should be ashamed of himself. A war hero has decided to act dishonorably to try to be President.

dean

i wish you hadn't said that Social Security is 20% of the federal budget. Social Security is not part of the federal budget and that is an important distinction.

otherwise you get the "money is fungible" embezzlers, or the other guys who want to turn Soc Sec into a welfare system so they can destroy it more easily.

the more i look at the social security issue the more i am convinced that the real tragedy is that so many many people can be so wrong and so sure of themselves. and of course completely immune to any form of "let us reason together" that i can come up with.

lets see yeah SSA is a disgrace alright but not for the reasons said here.Lets See we have a right to see the funds from SSA spent on wars. You have a right to be so crippled you have no quility of life left to you to get SSDI benefits. You have a right to die of your disability before SSA will pay you your benefts, with lawyers report one client dead per month per lawyer. You have a right to loose and be stripped of all property before you are determined to be under disability which one must ask how many of these folks are dead to by the time they get it. Life ending illness is well documented yet many are turned down first try, second try till they are dead. when these case should be approved first time which would cut the overlaod of cases by HOW MUCH. Seems like SSA is MUCH like DCF they moans and groan for hours while the stack of work is pileing up had they shut up done their job the pile would be cut in half. Then if they approved the cases know to be expected to result in death wow that would cut the pile down how much more and wow don't ya think its the right thing to do, And not expect a dying person to be forced to be out here working, but rather doing a total new job of trying to stay alive even maybe reverse or cure their illness so others may have a easier go if and when they face that same illness. The disgrace is how SSA and law makers force people to die to get their claims or expect the dying people to have to work when they should be trying to heal. And why in these cases they are not charged with abuse of disabled persons and murder from 3rd degree to 1st depending on how well documented the life ending illness was that person died while waiting. You have a Right to be stressed known to cause current illness to get worse and create new illness. And last of all you got a right to a Lawyer and be delayed months or years lawyer or not. SO Yeah I'd say the Social Security System is a Big Disgrace in more ways than just one.

Unless retirees plan to consume dried fruit and beef jerky and use medicines that were made and stored up while they were still working, and not consume any services during their retirement, then OF COURSE retirement consumption comes from work done by those who are not retired. Forget money for a moment: look at it in real terms. Unless retirees stockpile the things they plan to consume, retirement consumption comes at the cost of present time period consumption from those who are not retired. It has to. No matter what financing scheme you set up, work done by those who are currently working is what enables the consumption of those who are retired. That isn't a disgrace; it's a necessary feature of retirement. There is a legitimate and reasonable question that a society has to answer somehow about just how much of current production should go to support retirement as opposed to current workers or future workers or those unable to work, but there's no disgrace in the fact that current production is taxed to support retirement. It's just one of several possible ways to finance a retirement system.

i am going to tell you people in dc just where the voting american people are today...we do not $600 billion removed from medicare to make things worse for our elderly who paid into that all of their hard working lives; we do not want the health reform bills passed; we do not the energy bill passed; we do not want to see obama back on television for a year; we do not want to hear another obama speech for a year; we want obama to get rid of his czars...obama does not think americans are paying attention to his sneaky moves but we are! WE WANT OBAMA IMPEACHED! WE WANT ANY CONGRESSMEN OR SENATOR WHO VOTED OR WHO IS GOING TO VOTE FOR THE HEALTH REFORM AND ENERGY BILLS IMPEACHED! you see, when obama jammed that stimulus bill down our throats without any of our representatives reading it we realized the people in dc have totally forgotten who put them there..and we are ready to get them removed!

Good post,thanks a lot.There is not a question of whether there are enough people to possibly be trained to practice medicine. There is only the question of whether you want one more doctor or one more derivatives trader.

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