Is the European Union Being Too Harsh on Latvia
Latvia was one of the great bubble countries of the world, until last year, borrowing vast sums (denominated in euros) from west European banks. The country is now seeing its economy contract at close to a 20 percent annual rate. The European Union is offering to help (how else can those loans to the banks be repaid?), but is demanding that Latvia move quickly to reduce its deficit.
The NYT reported that the EU relaxed the conditions on its loans, allowing Latvia to reach a deficit target of 3.0 percent of GDP in 2012 rather than 2011. The NYT notes a controversy over whether this pace of deficit reduction is still too fast. It would have been helpful to point out that Latvia's debt to GDP ratio was just 17 percent at the end of 2008. This would suggest that it could easily support considerably higher debt levels.
Given that Latvia's economy is likely to still be far from full employment in 2012, and that it can anticipate relatively rapid growth over the longer-term as it catches up to west European living standards, the 3.0 percent deficit target for 2012 could still be overly restrictive.
--Dean Baker
Feeds: 


COMMENTS (2)
This was among the most noteworthy current economics-related stories?
Posted by: EconDumbo | July 3, 2009 9:28 AM
"Given that Latvia's economy ... can anticipate relatively rapid growth over the longer-term as it catches up to west European living standards..."
Unfortunately, there is no natural law which makes it likely that Latvia will ever attain west European living standards. The assumption that west Europe can maintain west European living standards as the fossil fuel basis of those living standards is progressively removed is equally absurdly presumptous, and coming from so thoughtful an economist as Dean, such a statement is clearly indicates the complete bankruptcy of "economic science."
A useful corrective to these absurd presumptions is provided by an article by M. King Hubbert which was published in Science in 1949 and quoted today by Richard Duncan at The Oil Drum: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5419#more
"The present state of human affairs can best be appreciated in the light of a time perspective, minus and plus, of some tens of thousands of years from the present, as depicted in Fig. 8 [frame #1]. On such a time scale the phenomena we have discussed are represented by abrupt, nearly vertical rises from zero or near zero to maximum values. The consumption of energy from fossil fuels is thus seen to be but a “pip,” rising sharply from zero to a maximum, and almost as sharply declining, and thus representing but a moment in the total human history.
"Likewise the consumption of energy per capita [Fig. 8, frame #3], after having risen very gradually from 2,000 to possibly 10,000 kilogram calories per day, is seen to increase suddenly to a maximum value of several times the highest previous value. Again it is physically possible to maintain a high value, as indicated by Curve I, on a stable basis for an indefinite period of time from current energy sources, particularly direct and indirect solar radiation. It is also possible, however, that through cultural degeneration this curve may decline, as in Curve II, to the subsistence level of our agrarian ancestors.
"Viewed on such a time scale [Fig. 8, frame #4], the curve of human population would be flat and only slightly above zero for all preceding human history, and then it too would be seen to rise abruptly and almost vertically to a maximum value of several billion. Thereafter, depending largely upon what energy supplies are available, it might stabilize at a maximum value, as in Curve I, or more probably to a lower and more nearly optimum value, as in Curve II. However, should cultural degeneration occur so that the available energy resources should not be utilized, the human population would undoubtedly be reduced to a number appropriate to an agrarian existence, as in Curve III.
"These sharp breaks in all the foregoing curves can be ascribed quite definitely, directly or indirectly, to the tapping of the large supplies of energy stored up in the fossil fuels. The release of this energy is a unidirectional and irreversible process. It can only happen once, and the historical events associated with this release are necessarily without precedent, and are intrinsically incapable of repetition.
"It is clear, therefore, that our present position on the nearly vertical front slopes of these curves is a precarious one, and that the events which we are witnessing and experiencing, far from being “normal,” are among the most abnormal and anomalous in the history of the World. Yet we cannot turn back; neither can we consolidate our gains and remain where we are. In fact, we have no choice but to proceed into a future, which we may be assured will differ markedly from anything we have experienced thus far."
M. King Hubbert, Science, 1949, p. 103-109
Posted by: Steve Athearn | July 3, 2009 1:41 PM