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Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting

NYT Drags German Miracle Through the Mud

Okay, I'm not on vacation, but this is a BTP flashback. My original write-up of this NYT news article was way too positive. This article was essentially a diatribe against Germany's welfare state. To make its case, it turned an incredible success story -- Germany's relatively low unemployment rate -- into a failure.

The basic deal is that Germany adopted an explicit policy of encouraging employers to shorten work hours rather than lay off workers. The government allows unemployment benefits to be used to pay workers to cover most of the loss in wages due to the shorter workweek.

As a result, Germany's unemployment rate has barely changed in the downturn. Its unemployment rate at present is 7.7 percent. This is down from 7.8 percent earlier in the year. Germany's unemployment rate in 2007 was 8.4 percent, 0.7 percentage points higher than the current level.

This is an incredible success story. Imagine Barack Obama's approval rating if the unemployment rate today was anywhere close to its 4.7 percent average for 2007. Think of the millions of unemployed workers who would not be struggling to pay their rent or mortgages or meet other bills if only our leaders were as smart as Germany's leaders. We could do something along the same lines in the U.S.

But NYT readers will be spared such thoughts because the article described the policy as a complete failure. To make its case, the NYT even used the German government's measurement of unemployment (which counts part-time workers as being unemployed) rather than the harmonized OECD measure that is directly comparable to the unemployment data in the United States.

This was not news reporting.

--Dean Baker



COMMENTS

This is nothing unusual. It's Prawda style journalism and NYT economic journalists don't know how else to write. Have some sympathy. Do you expect these guys to unlearn everything they have learnt, to throw everything they have ever held to be true over board just because it contradicts empirical reality? Too bad for reality. This isn't how economic reasoning is supposed to work in the homeland of capitalism.

It is obvious that Dean Baker is on a mission -- the one policy that resolves all social ills. As such, he cannot listen to reason. Fine. Good luck, Dean. Work week reduction (or "work sharing") has never, anywhere, eliminated involuntary unemployment and underemployment; indeed, it has never had a significant effect. These schemes have not increased employment... This WILL NOT create many more jobs. If Dean's trying to engage in a dialogue with the New York Times, it might help if the tone of his blog entry was somewhat less snarky. Perhaps snark attracts more internet traffic, but it doesn't encourage dialogue.

oops, the "satire" HTML tags disappeared on the previous post.

Look at the pathetic state of job training for unemployed people in the U.S., as well.

It shows there is really no seriousness when it comes to producing a technically skilled population.

Well, the NYT's problem here is really simple: German unemployment is below US unemployment.

As this can not and must not happen, the NYT uses noncomparable measures of unemployment. Doesn't suffice? Well, let's say that it's bad. Just because it is so. And has to be.

"Germany's unemployment rate in 2007 was 8.4 percent, 0.7 percentage points higher than the current level.

This is an incredible success story."

Err, you're saying that an unemployment rate of 8.4% at the end of the world's longest boom is a success? How do you define failure?

Tim:
Go back to Dr. Baker's post and read the last paragraph -- carefully this time.

"you're saying that an unemployment rate of 8.4% at the end of the world's longest boom is a success?"

No, but that's not what he said. Besides, Germany didn't have a "boom" in the first place, and certainly not one fueled by asset bubbles and loose regulation

Ethan, I think Tim must have lost the HTML satire tags Herr Sandwichman referred to.
Surely, anyone with an once of factual brain, knows that the "boom" through 2007, was the worst real GDP performance in the US since the Great depression.

Oops, strike that comment. I've seen so much misinformation about the Bush boom, I wrote before my gram of brain thought.

But doesn't Tim have a point? We would not be happy (normally) with 7.7-8.4% unemployment. Isn't Germany's higher unemployment a valid criticism of its policies? I don't mean a criticism of Dean's point in his post, which is specific to the current crisis, but of Germany's approach in general? ("Sure, Germany weathered the global recession better than us, but look at their generally high unemployment rate--even when you use the harmonized measure.")

"But doesn't Tim have a point? We would not be happy (normally) with 7.7-8.4% unemployment".

That might be a valid point of US unemployment statistics were reliable at all. They are not and if they used the method that the EU does, US unemployment would be even higher. It's a joke to the point that economists used to predict a rising unemployment rate during boom times because more people will be looking for jobs and therefore be counted as unemployed, whereas in a slow labor market more people will give up looking for a job, resulting in a lower unemployment rate. Of course a recession will still dominate the trend but the fact is that few economists take US unemployment data at face value.

More meaningful, and to the point in response to Mr. Worst-of-all, is the total employment rate among the active population, and here the trend has been unambiguous: the rate has been falling in the US while in Germany, *it reached an all time high in 2008*.

There are a lot of factors that need to be considered in this area. The structure of the economy is different, so the natural rate of unemployment is likely to be different, and this takes into account many factors, cultural, economic and legal alike.

Another issue is hysteresis and path dependency. This may be a problem in the US given the damage unemployment is doing to already stressed individuals. Low income can reduce the capacity to earn in the future, changing feedbacks and creating structural traps. In a country which has long had higher unemployment overcoming that is arguably a huge sign of success.

It's all very relative.

First you have to realize that the worktime reduction is only for the time of the crisis and is a flexible tool to deal with it. But the more important think you have to reconsider is the fact that Germany is still a Country that is PRODUCING something. It is exporting high-tech products and so it has suffered on a very high level. With this tool Germany has find a way to soften the burden on his workforce. It is financed by a dept but all Nations that face this crisis have to go south with their budget and so this dept is at least going where it helps the most.

Well, coming from Germany I can assure you that we don't view our economical satus as a success. For many years America has had a much lower unemployment rate than we did, but our poverty rates were much lower, we've had a functioning social net, our health care system as well as our educational system and public services were well financed and working. For ten years now, Germany is being restructured according to neoliberal principles, our new government is planing to reform our health care system according to the American system. The low unemployment rate does not include many people who are unemployed, because of the short work many people have less and less money, the rich become richer, the poor become poorer. Our domestic market has suffered severely for many years now. We have a social climate we could have never dreamed of ever getting. The unemployed are simply lazy, all of them.
But all this will have immense negative consequences as soon as next years. And still we have elected a Republican-like government, which is totally incognizable to many of us here.
Don't look to Germany as an example: We are imitating what you have done for 30 years!

Err, may I just add, because of my rage I forgot to comment, that the unemployed being lazy is the common propaganda by the right-wing parties and lobbies that are very powerful over here.

Thanks Greg, for correcting. Without the correction you appeared to be a right wingers wet dream. Yep your right wingers are very similar to ours. Scapegoat a weaker segment of the population and then push through giveaways for the rich all the while convincing ignorant bigots that things are better under them.

Look at this headline of the renowned weekly newspaper "Die Zeit" and see for yourselves which kind of policy steps are being taken over here (no knowledge of the German language needed):
http://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2009-10/angela-keynesianismus-bush

So, the New York Times analyst was mostly right in his criticism.

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