NYT Publishes Oped by Analyst Who Doesn't Think Debt Affects Share Prices
The NYT published a column by Edward Niedermayer, the editor of the Web site The Truth About Cars, which claimed that the government was unlikely to recoup much of its investment in General Motors. The piece dismisses the idea that GM stock could ever reach the $66.9 billion level needed to recoup the government’s investment: "Sorry, but that’s a pipe dream: G.M. has never been worth more than $57 billion, and that was in the salad days of 2000."
In 2000, GM had a large debt both in the form of formal debt and more importantly in the form of liabilities for its workers pension and retiree health care benefits. It has been relieved of these liabilities by bankruptcy. This would make a huge difference in its share price given the same underlying level of profitability.
--Dean Baker
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COMMENTS (8)
Funny how GM sales during C4C declined. Maybe something to do with a incompetent and corrupt govt. owning the majority of GM and US citizens wouldn't buy pencils from a manufacturer majority owned by the US govt. Your insinuation that US taxpayer's will be paid back is naive. As naive as your's and others position that the incompetent and corrupt US govt. can/will create jobs without stealing,wasting more taxpayer's dollars than jobs created. Dean, your stock and relevance is falling as fast as Obama's.
Posted by: Mark G. | November 23, 2009 10:09 AM
Hey Mark G.
Why wouldn't "US citizens buy pencils from a manufacturer majority owned by the US govt"? They buy electricity generated by govt. owned power plants situated in govt. built dams, drive on govt. built highways (which by the way are built to higher standards than most of the crap that comes out of the private sector), send packages through the U.S. mail, take off and land in planes that operate on govt. subsidized runways, walk on govt. built sidewalks illuminated by govt. installed streetlights, live in houses built from timber logged off of govt. managed forests, graduate from govt. subsidized colleges and so on and on. Unsubscribe to this article of faith that the government can't do things as well as the private sector. Gather some empirical data and draw legitimate conclusions.
Posted by: Don | November 23, 2009 11:09 AM
They wouldn't buy pencil's for the same reason they're not buying vehicle's from Government Motors. I buy electricity from a monopoly subsidized by taxpayer dollars.The airport is the same. As for the other things you mentioned,I'm all for taking the profits from govt. subsidized enterprises. I support "Commanding Heights" ownership by the citizens. I don't support Obama's facism, a melding of corporate power with govt. power.C4C's cost per auto via pulling demand forward based on what I read over $20k. As to the FTHB,IIRC that cost was $40-60k per sale based on pulling demand forward. These programs harm the citizens and help the big banks that tote our weasel, verminlike politicians around in their pockets.
Posted by: Mark G. | November 23, 2009 11:40 AM
Mark,
I agreed. Where were you when Bush pushed for TARP? Nursing?
Posted by: Mark G's Brst Sagging M | November 23, 2009 1:36 PM
Mark put it well.
The solution isn't to join the powers of two entities that were responsible for the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression.
I think it was Moore who said to take an American made vehicle and size it next to a Japanese and if you can find just FIVE reasons to buy American over Japanese, you should be running the auto industry.
Posted by: acuvue oasys | November 23, 2009 7:34 PM
Mark, you didn't really meet my point head on but, oh well.
I'm just curious. In your estimation, is Obama's facism any different than Bush's? Are they species of the same genus? Or is Obama's some how unique? Are they the "facism" of any modern nation state that is fundamentally a joint venture between corporations and government? Or is America's uniquely military-dominated culture especially facist? Or do you refer to the "soft" facism of the patrician oligarchy that drafted the Constitution that protects their interests even to this day?
Even though I'll see your "big banks that tote our weasel verminlike politicians" and raise you a "bloodsucking parasites and their lick spittle lackeys", I don't agree that stimulus money is money thrown down a rat hole. This whole pulling demand forward argument is premised on the notion of continuous optimum output. But if we are already in a situation of high (and rising) unemployment, underutilized capacity and slackening demand how can it possibly hurt to provide incentives that keep people employed now? The alternative is to sit back and watch an unemployment-recession-deflationary positive-feedback death spiral. Who needs that?
Posted by: Don | November 23, 2009 8:41 PM
Contrary to Dean's idea that the GM workers pensions and retiree health care benefits have been relieved by bankruptcy, new GM issued a note ($2.5 billion) and preferred stock ($6.5 billion) to the VEBA. The UAW negotiated that plus $10 billion in cash, and 17.5% of new GM's equity was for the roughly 20 billion in pre-bankruptcy claims.
The unsecured bondholders had about $28 billion, and old GM gets 10% of the equity of new GM.
Of course, new GM has a shot at profitability even if they still are losing money now. But it depends more on a recovery of the North America Division's sales than it does on the bond interest levels which have only dropped 300 million a month from last year:
Worldwide payroll in $ billions
2009 2.5 Months (July 10-Sept 30) == 2.9 == 1.16 a month
2008, 3 months to Sept30 == 4.4 == 1.46 a month
A drop of .3
Interest Expense in $ billions
2009 2.5 Months (July 10-Sept 30) == .356 == .142 a month
2008, 3 months to Sept30 == .595 == .198 a month
A drop of .56
You can read these details here:
http://docs.motorsliquidationdocket.com/pdflib/uaw_1.pdf
* "The restructuring agreements provide that the new company will take over responsibility for the
GM UAW pension plan."
* in January 2010 the VEBA will receive the assets of an internal trust
fund maintained at GM (~10 billion)
"VEBA will receive a new Note, payable in cash, with a principal amount of $2.5 billion."
* "The VEBA will also receive Preferred Stock in the new company with a face value of $6.5 billion. This Preferred Stock includes a 9% cash dividend payment structure, under which $585 million is payable annually for as long as the VEBA holds this stock."
* "the VEBA will receive an initial allocation of 17.5%
of the stock in the new company"
* Added copays on prescription drugs, eliminated some coverage, and the vision and dental plans.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 23, 2009 11:53 PM
Correction to 11:53: The bond interest levels have dropped by $560 million a month. The $300 milion is the drop in payroll.
Unfortunately, GM has also lost market share:
GM Share 2009 2008
US Cars 16.5% 20.3%
US Trucks 22.8% 28.4%
(3 months until Sept 30)
http://www.gm.com/corporate/investor_information/earnings/
Posted by: AndrewDover | November 24, 2009 8:28 AM