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Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting

November Jobs Report: It's Worse Than It Looks

Losing 533,000 jobs is really really awful. The economy is in a free fall. Unfortunately, the situation is probably even worse than the data now show.

The reason is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) imputes jobs into its survey for new firms that could not included in its sample. This imputation is based on its "birth/death" model which is inevitably backward looking. As a result, it misses turning points, underestimating job growth when the economy speeds up and overestimating job growth (or underestimating job loss) when the economy slows.

The BLS imputed 143,000 jobs into the establishment data over the last three months based on its birth/death model. In the three months from September to November of last year BLS imputed just 117,000 jobs into the establishment data.

It is inconceivable that job growth in new firms over the last three months was larger this year than in the same months of 2007. When BLS revises these data based next summer based on data from unemployment insurance records, it is virtually certain that November will show even more job loss than was reported today.

In short, as bad as the picture looks now, the reality is almost certainly worse. (Btw, reporters who cover the employment data should know about the birth/death imputations.)

--Dean Baker



COMMENTS

So the Government is lying to us,big news. Tell me something I already didn't know.
But while I'm here, I'll remind my fellow citizens that Congress approval rating are even lower that Bush's.
So why don't the bums get voted out? .....because ya'll think YOUR bum (with seniority) is going to send some juicy pork your way.

Term limits for Congress!
(oh, and retroactively ditch their retirement and health benefits).

Much worse indeed!
E.g.
June and July (together): - 100.000, later revised to - 160.000

August: - 84.000, later revised to 127.000

September: initially published - 159.000, later revised to - 284.000 and now revised to - 403.000 !!!!

October: initially - 240.000, now revised to - 320.000, next month revised to ? !!

November: initially - 533.000, next month revised to ? and later on revised to ?

Look: the initially published September numbers were only 40% of what the Bureau of Lies and Statistics published last Friday. Surely, this can not be only due to birth/death modeling lags. I.e. is it honestly possible to publish such errors, or was it (pre-election) convenience for the bush-cheney administration to administer the numbers more to their liking. The mainstream media only headline the less shocking numbers, and never headline the hugh downwards revisions.

Also, how is it that all the stock markets in Europe nosedived after the news broke, whereas Wall Street got another end-of-the-day rally? Does it have something to do with the ¨second arrow in the Fed´s quiver: the provision of liquidity¨, i.e. is helicopter Bernanke (yes, the same man who assured us that it was only a 50 billion subprime mortgage problem, and that it was contained) buying up equities to artificially prop-up the stock market?

Dean:
Isn't it more important to know the average and median length of time the unemployed have been out of work ? If most of the unemployed are out of work for a month or two the situation is not as severe as if they could not find new jobs after their unemployment insurance runs out. A one or two month unemployment term, while painful, is not as damaging to the individuals as being out of work for a year.
I am disappointed the BLS doesn't issue more meaningful data.

Don't they just disreguard someone once off unemployment?

What I find interesting is that this is the 1st time in my memory that the NY Times has used the U6 jobless figure.

Hitherto, the NY Times (and the media in general) used U3.

Normally U6 is unmentionable.

really good post, thank you for sharing this information.

I, too, was surprised that the NYT used U-6, which shows how much worse it really is even before Dean's insight ia added on top. The loss of full-time work was especially appalling. Maybe it will come back to bite our side, and maybe that's been the quid pro quo that's kept U-6 out of the discourse, but let's hope -- let's make -- the rest of the journalistic world start giving the more complete picture.

The birth/death model is the prime example of why you can't believe government statistics. My favorite is that there are about 150,000 new jobs created in new Construction companies, net of closed Construction companies, since February.

It is amazing that they keep putting out these false numbers every month without any adjustments since last January.

Well at least we have companies out there doing their bit to help.

I mean WTF can't close the spigot down for a few years?

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Unemployment relief ? Medicare for All !

What we need now are programs that save jobs. Existing jobs are easier, faster and cheaper to save than creating new jobs. I have proposed Medicare for All. Through this I believe we can save hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs.

This saves jobs right away, especially in the public sector in states and local governments.

This re-capitalizes business especially manufacturing but also any business currently employing many people.

Strings could be attached such as a no layoff rule whereby companies would run 32 hour workweeks paying for 40 supplemented by the paid health insurance. States would be mandated to take any extra money and use it for unemployment benefits and or pension fund replenishment.

Medicare for All would also make our businesses more competitive at home and abroad. All the other G7 nations have government sponsored health insurance giving their businesses a subsidy.

We need Medicare for All ASAP ...

My Jobs Program:

Halt all job-related visas such as H-1b's and make E-Verify permanent and mandatory. What point is there to a huge expensive jobs program if it isn't reserved only for people legally able to work in the US? Re-employ some of those US workers that were pushed out for cheap foreign labor.

These BAILOUTS would be better spent BUYING AMERICAN LABOR, than bad paper or paper that's DOOMED to go bad. PAY WORKERS to work and they will have the money to buy houses, cars, etc. ALL these payments to cronies in finance are just another form of "Trickle Down". (it don't work)

I love how reporters--the protectors of our democracy--never miss a sensationalistic story, but somehow omit vital information regarding job growth and the current recession.

Wonderful.

-Jeremy
http://www.jeremyabrams.com

In looking back at that 25% unemployment figure in the mid 1930's it occurred to me that the percentage was relevent only to the total population count and number of workers in the labor force. Considering today's population is 250% of the 1930 population, comparing the hard number of today vrs than, our current 10 millions unemployed probably comes close if not equal to the actual number of folks out of work who make up the 25% figure. So do we measure the impact of an economic condition only when the percentages are equal to the Great Depression, or do we look to compare numbers of actual human beings out of work now as compared to the 1930's. If we look at real numbers, we are in another Great Depression !!!

silverfox: EXACTLY.

These figures also only include people who receive W-2 employee income. Sole proprietors and failed partnerships are not included in this figure. I don't know the percentages, but I'm sure sole proprietors make up a large part of the work force.

Take for example the construction industry, linked directly to the housing bubble. Many workers on a work site are contractors and report their income as sole proprietors and partners in a partnership. These jobs are inevitably drying up as construction grinds to a halt. Yet, these jobs are not included in employee statistics reported by the Labor Department.

really good post, thank you for sharing this information.

Thanks for an excellent post

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