McCain has his problems -- and many of them are severe -- but he's not a reckless nut like Giuliani

Yes he is.

Yes, I am concerned about McCain rising in Florida. However, a Rasmussen poll showed Romney ahead by 5, but it seems like the race is a toss up. I had always feared a Rudy Giuliani candidacy, but lately I loved at the polls at Real Clear Politics and seen both Hillary and Obama easily beating Rudy. As for McCain, I do fear his candidacy more than Rudy's, but what I think could hurt McCain is that some of the Republican "establishment" could have sway over him getting elected. I'm talking about Rush Limbaugh, Tom DeLay, and those guys. They may not mean much, but they could have some influence.

I just don't understand the conventional wisdom that seems to have taken hold in the liberal blogosphere which says that McCain will be the hardest to beat. I know that he runs well in head to head polls, but come on - we know those mean jack squat at this point.

His only real advantage is that the press loves him. Which is good and all, but it doesn't mean everything.

Running against McCain will permit the election to be construed as a referendum on the Bush administration. McCain wants a hundred year war in Iraq, buys into the neoconservative agenda, and is a doctrinaire conservative on economic policy.

In addition to this, he's not a very good speaker, he's visibly ancient, and is not pleasant to look at. We've been told all our lives that in the television era, an ugly person couldn't get elected president. McCain would certainly test that theory (sorry, it's rude but true - he actually appears sort of deformed).

In November the electorate will demand change. Romney, Huckabee, or Giuliani could sort of plausibly adopt this mantle, just because they are 'Washington Outsiders'. McCain cannot. He represents nothing but the same old same old.

If, on the other hand, you think John McCain is a reckless nut AND a political knave, you're screwed.

Boy, am I'm screwed.

On the "nut"-side, I see John McCain lying about his vote in favor of torture, and threatening Iran and China. As for being a "knave", I'm sure he'll be just like he is now; he'll say is going to act in a politically moderate fashion, then he'll actually act on his conservative principles. (For instance, he refuses to support environmental legislation without huge subsidies to nuclear power companies.)

With John McCain, you'll get a man who will shiv you in the back with a smile on his face, just after telling the media that he would never, ever do such a horrible thing.

If the Democrats, as a party, and the Democratic nominee in particular manage to throw off their completely ineffectual advertising consultants it shouldn't be too terribly hard to bind McCain with baling wire to every disastrous Bush policy of the last 7 years. Starting with Iraq.

(And how come, no matter how many times I click the 'remember personal info' box, I *always* have to re-enter my info?)

McCain may be somewhat of an improvement over the rest of the GOP field in terms of civil liberties and the power of the executive branch, but he definitely subscribes to the Rudy Giuliani school of foreign policy. Be afraid.

I think underestimating him is the wrong thing to do. His authenticity is going to be a stark contrast to Hillary.

"and checked by a Democratic Congress, there's the possibility that some decent, if incremental, legislation would be created and passed."

Yes, because our Democrats in Congress have proven to us that they're good at checking Republican executive power.

but he's not a reckless nut like Giuliani

others have made the point, but....

this is like saying that Bill Frist isn't an asshole like Mitch McConnell. It's a question of degree, not kind. If anything, McCain is more dangerous than Giuliani because so many people buy into the 'war-hero' myth that he would have an easier time selling/justifying bombing Iran. The man is a dangerous and lizard-brained militarist.

One thing to keep in mind is that many "establishment Republicans" - including Rush Limbaugh - hate McCain's guts.

They hate Romney, too, but unlike Romney, McCain has a mean streak and can be pretty vindictive.

McCain has a history of pandering to both the "left" and the "right", depending on whose support he needed and whose support he thought he could get.

If McCain gets the nomination and Rush and the boys don't rally behind him, McCain won't have any reason to pander to them any more and could decide to act more liberal than Edwards just to tick them off. I can't picture Romney doing that; he wants too much to be liked.

Seriously, watch McCain's behaviour after Super Tuesday if he picks up a lot of momentum. I'd be surprised if he doesn't start moving towards the Democrats on a number of issues once he thinks he's got the nomination.

I'm thinking that the Democratic nominee (assuming this person isn't too bloodied after the primary...which is indeed an assumption) will be able to plaster the airwaves with those photos of McCain hugging Bush, circa '04. Just tie those two mofos together and the Dems should be allright. I hope. I agree he's dangerous, though. As for the comment that suggests that he's too ugly to get the win, I'd say that this is probably true if Obama gets nominated, but if Clinton does, I'd have to worry that in America there are still a lot of people who would prefer an ugly male president over a moderately attractive female one. It's kind of the same phenomenon that says that male news anchors can look like Dan Rather, but females must look like Katie Couric.

According to Open Secrets, McCain has 3 million in cash, Romney about ten, and Giuliani about 16.

Edwards 12m, Obama 30m, and Clinton 50m.

Don't know how that translates into actual campaign strength, the future, etc, but the figures are pretty interesting, IMHO.

McCain inherits the mantle of this war, totally and completely. Unless Iraq breaks out in song and flowers over the next 8 months, I don't see how we can lose to him. Remember:

"Bomb, bomb, bomb. Bomb bomb Iran."

People only seem to like him now cus they've gotten a better look at the other crazies in the GOP.

I think underestimating him is the wrong thing to do. His authenticity is going to be a stark contrast to Hillary.

What authenticity are you talking about? Examples, please. I can't remember anything like that.

Taking a position and sticking with it no matter what the cost. Voting to authorize the war and stating it was not a vote to go to war is complete and utter bullshit. Everyone can see through that line. Everyone knew what that vote meant at the time. Voting for bankruptcy reform then being against it. Changing your mind on illegal immigrants and drivers licenses 4 times during the same answer are just a few examples.

I've said this previously somewhere, but what I fear is that McCain will not make it through 4 years - and the possibility that he'd choose Jeb Bush to lock up the Bush/Cheney robots.

Plus, McCain is dishonest in a honest-seeming kind of way - except on national defense, where only Ghouliani could be worse.

I wouldn't underrate the media's love for him either. The media essentially enabled the Bush 'victories' in 2000 and 2004 with their bellies-showing attitude toward Bush and relentless trivia attacks on Gore/Kerry.

Lastly, McCain will care even less than Bush about popular attitudes on issues. Romney's need to be liked opens some hope that he'd be responsive to the public will - not so for McCain.

I fear a McCain candidacy regardless of who the Dems. nominate.

"Taking a position and sticking with it no matter what the cost."

jenga, I'm not sure, but I think Cyrus was looking for examples of this "authenticity" from McCain as opposed to more examples of Clinton's inauthenticity.

Jj is right. I'm not defending Clinton — I'd rather not talk about her at all, the way people have been arguing about her and Obama has been fucking nuts — but I've never seen any actual evidence of principles from McCain.

He's disliked on the right for, among other things, calling Falwell and friends "agents of intolerance" while running in 2000; in 2006, despite them getting worse by any meaningful measure in the meantime, he decided to let bygones be bygones. And what, do you think he's taken a principled stand against torture? He made a de jure compromise and a de facto concession. He was a great ally of Kerry in the early 1990s as a fellow veteran; did McCain have anything to say about the Swift Boating? And about campaign finance, he may have backed McCain-Feingold, but that was partly just so people would forget the Keating Five.

The idea that McCain is a maverick, a moderate or unusually principled is about as realistic as "Superman Returns," and for him, it has been about as profitable.

I agree that a McCain candidacy is probably their best chance for victory, but I can't say I'm worried about it. But I wouldn't mind seeing Romney pull it out.

But my most favorite dream is a brokered GOP convention. I've set down some thoughts about how it might go down here:

http://www.theleftanchor.com/2008/01/giuliani-now-fo.html

"I'm deeply conflicted about McCain's rise."

You shouldn't be.

"and checked by a Democratic Congress, there's the possibility that some decent, if incremental, legislation would be created and passed."

?????

I thought health care and getting out of Iraq was your two core issues. If McCain is elected, neither won't happen. Lastly, when will you guys get that the "Rockefeller Republicans" are dead. There are no moderates in that party anymore. Stop drinking the kool-aid. Remember when Bush was supposed to be like his father! We keep nominating DLC figureheads (Hillary) and they keep electing Right wing wacked out presidents. Our progressive agenda is now on life-support and now you're "deeply conflicted on McCain". Thanks, Ezra.