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THE RULES OF CLOTURE.
Brian Beutler takes a look at the ins-and-outs of cloture rules and reports that if there are 99 seated senators, then the number for cloture -- which is to say, the number to prevent a filibuster -- drops from 60 to 59. If there are 98 seated senators, it stays at 59. In other words, if Franken's election gets tied up in litigation but Burris is appointed to Obama's Senate seat and serves, then there is no effective difference for the Democrats. If Franken gets tied up in litigation and the Illinois seat gets tied up in rules, then the Democrats have to find an additional Republican vote on most major piece of legislation. "If you don't think that's a big deal, writes Beutler, "go back and look at the cloture votes in the 110th Congress, and count up the times 41 or more Republicans voted to obstruct."
COMMENTS (6)
Nate Silver says the opposite, that the number needed for cloture remains at 60 when there are 99 senators and only drops to 59 when there are 98.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/can-franken-give-burris-his-daily.html
Who's right? I suspect Nate is, because three-fifths of 99 is 59.4, and cloture should require at least 59.4 votes (in effect, 60).
Posted by: Dan K | January 5, 2009 11:39 AM
Yeah, I think Beutler is wrong. If there are 99 senators, then having 59 isn't enough to reach three fifths.
Posted by: KCinDC | January 5, 2009 11:59 AM
"If you don't think that's a big deal, writes Beutler, "go back and look at the cloture votes in the 110th Congress, and count up the times 41 or more Republicans voted to obstruct."
This rhetorical question is based upon a straw man, because the 110th Congress had a Republican caucus with more than the 41 or 42 votes being discussed in the post. It's like asking "Count the number of times in the 110th Congress that 1 or more Democratic presidents signed federal legislation."
Posted by: SB | January 5, 2009 12:04 PM
Yeah, this isn't quite right. 3/5 of 99 is 59.4. You have round up, because you need at least 59.4 votes. 59 isn't enough.
Best I know that means:
If neither gets seated: 57 democrats, 59 votes needed for cloture (ie 2 GOP votes needed)
If one gets seated: 58 dems, 60 votes needed (same situation as before)
If both get seated: 59 dems, 60 votes needed, now they need only 1 GOP cross over
Posted by: KR | January 5, 2009 12:27 PM
Ezra (or anyone at the AP, for that matter):
Can you explain why the cloture rule has become so important? Is there an actual parlimentary rule that was put in place that did away with actual filibusters, or is there some misplaced sense of "decency" that the majority party won't sink to the level of making somebody debase him/herself into reading out a phone book in the senate chambers for 12+ hours while live on CNN?
Posted by: marceaumarceau | January 5, 2009 2:14 PM
Have to agree with the other commenters. Having 98 Senators or 99 Senators is effectively the same amount for Democrats at this point in time.
Posted by: Chris O. | January 6, 2009 2:28 PM