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WALT WADES IN.
Foreign Policy has an impressive new roster of bloggers, including Thomas Ricks, Laura Rozen, Marc Lynch, and Dan Drezner. All of them are excellent reading. Indeed, they'll possibly be required reading if the Obama administration's "Fairness Doctrine Restoration and Progressive Media Mandate Act" passes. But for now, they're just good reading. Foreign Policy's most interesting and controversial pick, however, is Stephen Walt, of Walt and Mearsheimer fame. And, more impressively, Walt appears to be using the blog for its highest purpose: Saying things that few established media outlets would otherwise publish. For instance:
Here's a thought experiment:
Imagine that Egypt, Jordan, and Syria had won the Six Day War, leading to a massive exodus of Jews from the territory of Israel. Imagine that the victorious Arab states had eventually decided to permit the Palestinians to establish a state of their own on the territory of the former Jewish state. (That's unlikely, of course, but this is a thought experiment). Imagine that a million or so Jews had ended up as stateless refugees confined to that narrow enclave known as the Gaza Strip. Then imagine that a group of hardline Orthodox Jews took over control of that territory and organized a resistance movement. They also steadfastly refused to recognize the new Palestinian state, arguing that its creation was illegal and that their expulsion from Israel was unjust. Imagine that they obtained backing from sympathizers around the world and that they began to smuggle weapons into the territory. Then imagine that they started firing at Palestinian towns and villages and refused to stop despite continued reprisals and civilian casualties.
Here's the question: would the United States be denouncing those Jews in Gaza as "terrorists" and encouraging the Palestinian state to use overwhelming force against them?
There are certain problems with this analogy relating to international law. Namely, under the auspices of the institution that major world powers had recently made up, the Jewish state was a legal entity and its destruction would have been illegal, and it wouldn't have been strange for the US to intervene. But the Palestinians didn't exactly buy into the legal process that created the state of Israel. This is how the situation looks to them, and to most of the Arab world.
Moreover, as an explanation of how American interest group politics impact the conflict, Walt's point is undeniable. Imagine any situation in which the plights of an oppressed Arab and oppressed Jewish group are equal, and imagine how much coverage each would amass in America's op-ed columns and presidential campaigns. There's nothing wrong with that. The concerns of the Irish are also advantaged, as are those of sugar producers.But it's important to be aware of. And it explains why polls show that Palestinians don't trust America to act as a fair broker. They're right. Domestic politics make it impossible for America to act as a neutral broker in the conflict, and that has implications for any eventual settlement.
COMMENTS (16)
Imagine that a million or so Jews had ended up as stateless refugees confined to that narrow enclave known as the Gaza Strip.
Are these stateless refugee Jews surrounded by Jewish states that won't allow them in? Does our thought exercise involve imagining a Jewish Jordan, Jewish Egypt, and Jewish Syria that want nothing to do with these homeless Jews?
Posted by: kaybeel | January 5, 2009 1:30 PM
Then imagine that a group of hardline Orthodox Jews took over control of that territory and organized a resistance movement.
Huh?
What kind of analogy is this? Hamas didn't "take over"....they were ELECTED.
Keep the lies believable, please.
Posted by: El Viajero | January 5, 2009 1:33 PM
Right, in ElV's world, history began in 2006. Must be an interesting world, I wonder what color the sky is.
Posted by: Steve | January 5, 2009 1:35 PM
Right, in ElV's world, history began in 2006.
It's as if nobody even expected Hamas to act as a legitimate government, or to make something good of the Gaza strip when Israel pulled out.
Those were hopeful days, for me. I thought we were seeing the beginning of something big and new. I'm sorry Hamas made the choices they did.
Posted by: kaybeel | January 5, 2009 1:47 PM
Here's a further thought experiment: Imagine that the victorious Arabs/Palestinians then withdrew from Gaza, essentially taking up a model of "land-for-peace" that was clearly the only way to end the conflict. Yet, the Orthodox Jews responded with attacks, turning land-for-peace into land-for-war.
Here's another question: Would Walt completely ignore that set of developments and pose his hypothetical to narrowly avoid the attendant issues?
Posted by: Allojal | January 5, 2009 1:52 PM
I love the fact that a lot of these commentors, both here and on FP, are so blinded by their dogmatic beliefs, that they refuse to even imagine a world where the shoe is on the other foot.
Personally, I think this thought experiment is beneficial to both Israel supporters AND Palestinians. Its not as if life is easy for Israeli's and shitty for Palestinians. Both groups face numerous, but different, threats to their existence.
Its ironic that so many people have a stronger "religious" belief in their side of the Palestinian - Israeli than they do their own religion.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 5, 2009 2:08 PM
So Walt is distilling the entire issue to a question of religious bigotry. Well, analogical problems aside, I'll play ball: I would view these hypothetical orthodox militants the same way I view the existing orthodox militants. Gush Emunim, Yesha, etc. have my unreserved contempt. Only their children have my pity.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 5, 2009 3:06 PM
Furthermore, I would consider it the Jewish Gazans' responsibility to stop the rockets. Just as I view it as Israel's responsibility to stop violence emanating from the settler fringe.
In the interest of proportionality and civilian life, I would oppose an operation like the one occurring today. But I would understand its impetus.
Oh, and as a Jew, I'd be embarrassed by the Jews' pathetic inability to stop imitating Somalia and build a community worth living in. Life under the Poles was no fun either, but at least in the shtetls people weren't rapaciously doing each other in.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 5, 2009 3:23 PM
Do we not have to also include the following propositions in Walt's "thought experiment"?
1. Jewish-Gaza and Arab-Palestine are surrounded on all sides by Orthodox Jewish states.
2. There is a radical Othodox jewish state, perhaps the most powerful in the region, which has advocated the destruction of Arab-Palestine, is funneling arms to Jewish-Gaza (as well as other neighboring radical Orthodox Jewish groups on Arab-Palestine's borders, and is believed to be months away from acquiring the capability to produce nuclear weapons.
Posted by: Dagger DiGorro | January 5, 2009 3:37 PM
A) The Palestinians did not get radicalized INTERNALLY -- they have been bastardized (reduced to illegitimacy) as a people and daily humiliated and impoverished even more than they were in the first place (from the third world, you know) by Israel's "greed for land" to quote Jimmy Carter.
B) Imagine 5 million Jews had only Gaza and the West Bank left after losing the thought experiment war -- and imagine that after they had settled in and built a civilization that 5 million Palestinians would not let the 5 million Jews keep the 22% of Palestine left for them (you can even imagine this all happened AND THERE HAD BEEN NO DIASPORA if you really want to mirror the Palestinian circumstances!) and just decided to uproot the West Bank Jews from their lands and roads and schools and homes and businesses -- while keeping both West Bank and Gaza Jews in a perpetually increasing impoverishment and daily humiliation at the hands of Palestinian security forces.
Oh, and it is hard to imagine even in a thought experiment, but, imagine the Jews were a poor, third world people in the first place with absolutely no where else on earth to go.
Now, tell me how the Jews might react! Did someone say Moshe Dyan?
How do these guys get published in Foreign Policy -- really! -- do they need any high school educated cab drivers over at the magazine?
Posted by: Denis Drew | January 5, 2009 3:48 PM
Ezra, just a quick read of the comments to Walt's "thought experiment" will immediately disabuse you of the notion that it has any validity whatsover.
Posted by: Winston | January 5, 2009 3:54 PM
I think there's a huge blind spot in Walt's analogy, which is the history of suicide bombing and the intentional targeting of civilians.
That's the main difference between guerilla war and terrorism, a crucial moral distinction that Walt seems not to make in his thought experiment.
Posted by: Muzz | January 5, 2009 3:55 PM
Now that I realize who Stephen Walt is I cannot imagine how he could write anything so Magoo sighted. ???!
Posted by: Denis Drew | January 5, 2009 4:14 PM
It's time for people to drop this idea that targeting civilians is a tactic unique to Palestinians, or Arabs in general. Reading up on the practices of the Stern Gang would be a good place for Muzz and millions of others to start.
Posted by: James | January 5, 2009 5:31 PM
Those were hopeful days, for me. I thought we were seeing the beginning of something big and new.
'sfunny, kaybeel, because Dov Weisglass described the Gaza withdrawal as "formaldehyde", a way on ensuring that the peace process would be frozen for the foreseeable, kicking the can of the West Bank settlements down the road.
Then again, you do seem pretty naive.
Posted by: pseudonymous in nc | January 5, 2009 5:35 PM
A rehearsal of past offenses and what gets covered and not covered when we discuss current offenses in the Middle East is really taking us nowhere.
We really need to consider where we are going right now and what kind of future our current "peace process" will lead us to:
http://wonksanonymous.com/2009/01/03/frontiers-of-political-theory-the-three-state-solution.aspx
Posted by: Wonks Anonymous | January 7, 2009 11:28 AM