VOTE SHIFTING.
On the one hand, I can't, and won't, generalize out from such a small sample size. On the other, it seems weird not to mention this. In the past week or two, I've had three Hillary Clinton supporters in California tell me they're changing their vote. Reasons ranged from distaste at Bill Clinton's involvement in the campaign to a feeling that voting for Hillary would make them feel like "a curmudgeon." I don't know of anyone switching in the other direction.
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COMMENTS (20)
Forget where I heard this, but on of the talking heads this weekend said the Clintons are great by themselves, but together they're a train wreck. I wouldn't put it such harsh terms, but I largely agree, by themselves I'd be plenty happy with either one, it's combination I don't much care for.
Posted by: tom.a | February 4, 2008 11:38 AM
I've been experiencing the same thing. All of the Edwards folks have switched to Obama, and the Clinton people I know have either defected or are now unsure. One stated concern is that Clinton would be a weaker candidate against McCain. It's just anecdotal evidence, but the trend has been pretty steady.
Posted by: arbistrista | February 4, 2008 11:39 AM
"And even so, I wouldn't really care, as it's still a pretty good plan, except that he's decided to respond to the inadequacies of his own policy by fear-mongering against not only better policy, but the type of policy he's probably going to have to eventually adopt. It's very, very short-sighted."
Ezra, did I miss the post where you reconciled yourself to the damage Obama did to universal health care as you described in his H&L ad above? Your last few posts of cheerleading (and nothing else) his campaign would seem to suggest a step you took that I missed.
Thanks.
Posted by: anon7 | February 4, 2008 11:50 AM
UHC ain't everything, anon. But I'll have a fuller piece on my election thoughts later today. Stay tuned.
Posted by: Ezra | February 4, 2008 11:51 AM
yesterday, out in the rain with my obama sign, so many sympathetic and curious republicans came to talk to me, expressing interest and approval of barack obama.
usually, doing this work, as people walk by, they often cast a disdainful look if they of another party, but i have been generally surprised by the good will and interest on the part of republican passersby.
Posted by: jacqueline | February 4, 2008 12:09 PM
I was on the fence until recently myself. I liked the way Obama talked, but I felt I needed to base my descision on something more substantive. The more homework I did on Obama's advisors (economic and foreign policy alike), the more they seemed like original thinkers whose ideas aren't *primarily* conditioned by political expediency. My biggest hesitation was about Obama's healthcare plan, but I've even come around to finding it a pretty good solution. This AFTER reading and investigating the posts on this site. So now I am a firm supporter, and as such, I managed to convince my mother in California to switch from Hillary to Obama. For my mom, though, it was Hillary's equivocating about the war in Iraq that was decisive in Obama's favor.
Posted by: alex | February 4, 2008 12:09 PM
A contrary data point - all of my democratic friends who were either undecided or supporting a third candidate have broken for Hillary in the last week.
Posted by: Matilde | February 4, 2008 12:17 PM
My brother-- who never voted in his life until 2004, and then only in the general-- says he's taking time off work today to register in Texas so he can vote for Obama next month. My Edwards-supporting aunt & uncle shifted to Obama, and I've heard that my erstwhile Republican BIL likes him a lot. A New Jersey museum curator, an IRS-agent feminist in Mississippi, a Kentucky retail manager, etc., all are people I know (and haven't actually lobbied) voting for Obama. It's almost scary, how this is converging.
I will say that my GOP family back in Mississippi will all line up for McCain, because his statements on torture-- it's not like they're going to pay attention to his votes, after all-- soothe their consciences & keep them in the Republican fold.
Posted by: latts | February 4, 2008 12:32 PM
My Edwards supporting parents have switched to Obama. It's an Obama landslide among anecdotal friends and relatives!
Posted by: John | February 4, 2008 12:50 PM
And now you can add Kevin Drum to your list of Californians who have changed their vote.
Posted by: br | February 4, 2008 12:54 PM
Conversely, I think my parents in WA are voting Hilary based on experience.
Posted by: MosBen | February 4, 2008 1:52 PM
I switched to Obama about the same time my spouse switched to Hillary. My parents are holding firm at cancelling out each other's vote for the first time in 50 years.
I was eavesdropping on some social con Republicans talking. They are low information voters with family members in the military. It was fascinating because they were talking as if the election was between Hillary and Barack and the Republicans were non-entities. They were all leaning toward Hillary because they felt that she had a "plan to bring the troops home" whereas they felt the general Democratic plan was willy-nilly departure from Iraq.
Posted by: J Bean | February 4, 2008 2:57 PM
for what it's worth, I've two repub acquaintances in the same situation (they like Clinton better than their own candidates, but fear Obama as too liberal)
Posted by: anon7 | February 4, 2008 3:14 PM
I went from Edwards to Clinton despite Obama being my second choice before Iowa. I lost interest in Obama when I realized his campaigning from the right was a feature not a bug but mostly I just wanted Krugman to stop calling me.
Posted by: Gore to Edwards to Clinton | February 4, 2008 3:29 PM
You can add me to the list. I was defiantly for Clinton until this weekend.
Tomorrow I'm voting for 'magical ponies'.
Tipping points for me: watching the shambling mess of Mark Penn post-debate last week and michelle Obama's speech at UCLA yesterday.
Posted by: lovedog | February 4, 2008 4:37 PM
"I don't know of anyone switching in the other direction."
I was for Obama until this past weekend.
I'm voting Clinton tomorrow.
UHC.
Posted by: Petey | February 4, 2008 4:43 PM
So Petey was for Obama for what, three days?
Posted by: John | February 4, 2008 6:08 PM
I've gone from Edwards to Clinton. Obama is the next Jimmy Carter...soaring rhetoric, heal the political divide, yada, yada... with no ability to actual govern and lead to lasting change. I've lived through this movie. I don't need to see it twice.
Posted by: Mike | February 4, 2008 7:23 PM
I might add that the reason that I kept flip-flopping on my choice was because I like both of them. It was like trying to decide between a chocolate chip walnut cookie and a chocolate chip oatmeal cookie. In most primaries you are asked to choose between unbuttered grits and plain cream of wheat.
I think it may be time for dinner.
Posted by: J Bean | February 4, 2008 8:50 PM
"So Petey was for Obama for what, three days?"
He was my number 2 choice behind Edwards for a year.
Posted by: Petey | February 5, 2008 9:41 AM