Will Webb endorse Obama before the Virginia primary? You forgot one very important qualification about why Webb might be a good VP choice. He'd be the more manly man(by the Tweety standard). Webb was in combat on the ground. McCain wasn't. Do you really want to hear Tweety go on and on with his manly crush in McCain for the next eight months?

I just can't see why Webb would want the VP slot. He was just elected, and probably feels something of a responsibility to serve his full term. He has more power in the Senate. And being VP almost certainly would not lead to the presidency for him. By the time he would be able to run he would be 70 years old. What's in it for him?

This is a wonderful post, Ezra, that goes beyond flying in the face of the conventional wisdom to xplain why that wisdom is flawed. Thank you.

And no, that's not how I spell "explain." Nor do I dot i's with hearts. Sorry.

"Webb was in combat on the ground. McCain wasn't. Do you really want to hear Tweety go on and on with his manly crush in McCain for the next eight months?"

Yeah, I do. I love seeing his face all lit up like that. Positively sparkly.

If Hillary pulls it off, I don't know how she can not ask Obama.

The power center of Washington is in the WH, not the Senate. If Webb can help ensure that the Dems wins the presidency, then he is the right choice for VP.

This sounds totally right. Also, one of the things I fear about a Clinton nomination is that she may deprive us of an Indiana Senator who we really want to keep.

What are the rules in Virginia on appointing Senate replacements? If it's Gov. Kaine's job to do so, why wouldn't you take Webb out now?

This is an excellent post Ezra. You made me appreciate this issue in an entirely new way.

However, there's one thing missing: discussion of who you believe would be a good VP candidate. Are we supposed to assume you like Warner by inference? I sort of doubt it.

If we need to have a vet for VP, then I think Wesley Clark would be the best choice and that way we don't have to give up a seat to do it. He is a Hillary supporter and I think they would make a great team.

Webb's also on his third wife (this one's Vietnamese) and he's weirdly obsessed with the Scotch-Irish role in history. More generally, I don't think he's as ready for prime time as everyone thinks he is.

I've heard you or Yglesias (I forget which, maybe both) make this argument before, but I'm still not completely convinced. I mean you certainly do a sufficient job of arguing why Webb shouldn't be the VP candidate, but you seem to ignore the strengths that he would bring. Quickly:

he'd have to constantly watch his mouth
Perhaps. Although he seems to also bring about the sort of pugnacity that you'd want in a VP candidate--one who will go on attack for you. A Dick Cheney (not literally) who isn't necessarily concerned with whether they will always look nice. I think you want a guy who can get into the mud and keep the presidential candidate out of it.

You also mention that a vice presidential candidate shouldn't take a key vote out of the Senate and should help pull a key state. This is going to be a problem with any Senator taking the bottom of the ticket; the guy who can tip a state for the ticket will be from a red state and thus potentially giving up a safe senate seat. Maybe this means neither Obama or Clinton should choose a Senator as a running mate, but with an election that will likely focus on national security, I think most of the top choices would be Senators (with the exception of Clark for Clinton, or Richardson for either of the two). Additionally, if Kaine can appoint Webb's successor (as Edge mentioned), I think this also takes some of the bite out of your anti-Webb argument.

I also happen to think that Webb would compliment Obama in a way that you ignore. That he would seem to underline Obama's lack of national security experience seems unfounded (should Obama actively seek out a candidate with less foreign policy cred than he has? That gets rid of a number of folks). Moreover, Webb's "independent streak" seem to nicely compliment Obama's narrative of bi-partisanship and cooperation (Webb was a former Republican and Reagan's Navy Secretary, remember?). The whole buzz about "change" --however banal it may be in reality-- could also complimentWebb lack of Senate experience and ostensible annoyance with the typical way Washington politics is played. I'm not saying that Webb's the best choice for VP, I'm just saying that you seem to be dismissing him a little too eagerly. There are many worse choices out there.

But since we know pretty certainly that you don't want Webb in the role, would you mind filling us in as to who you would pick, or which potential candidates you'd consider?

I think all this about using one junior Senator's talent in the Senate or VP is beside the point of the VP nominee's number one job--helping the Presidential nominee get elected. It does no one any good to have a well qualified loser.

If the nominee thinks Webb can help in VA and fill a demographic or experience gap, nominate him. If not, don't. Whatever he can accomplish in the Senate pales in comparison to getting a Democrat in the White House.

Yes, yes a thousand times yes. Thank you.

I dunno AJ -- a popular RED STATE Democrat is a resource that the party shouldn't give up lightly. Harry Reid hasn't shown any indication that he'll force them to own up to these filibuster threats. And you KNOW the Republicans will continue to be obstructionist in order to derail the Dem President's agenda as early as possible. So President Clinton or Obama will need 60 votes to get anything done. Sacrificing a popular Red State Dem had therefore really better be worth it.

More than that, I really think a Candidate Obama will have to aggressively court Clinton's base. Poor white dudes have been leaving the party for decades now. Bush won white women in 2004. Hispanics are a pretty strong Dem block now, but they were up for grabs as recently as 2000. I'm not sure that Webb's to lock down Hillary's base voters.

Sebelius for Obama. Yes, she was boring and lamoid at the state of the union, but she's at least as competent as Hillary and far more likely to attract red state voters who will be intrigued by a Midwestern Values combo ticket of Obama/Sebelius

The Vice Presidency is an office that would suit Bill Richardson's peculiar skill-set, I think.

HEAR HEAR!! Don't take away my good Senator! We're sending him a good buddy in January to have a proud Virginia Senatorial delegation. Virginia ain't no Red state -- we're Purple!

Moreover,

Obama : Don Quixote :: Richardson : Sancho Pansa

Lampwick might be right. I haven't liked Richardson since the Wen Ho Lee prosecution, but he is, perhaps, the ideal Vice President. I don't mean that to sound as snarky as it does.

Ezra's correct: An Obama VP should not undercut his image of being in charge of foreign/military affairs, both internally or externally. There never should be doubt whose in charge (as there is with Cheney and Bush).

That said, Obama needs help to broaden the ticket, and accomplish real work as VP - without, once again, being overshadowed. Given Obama's somewhat deficit in while male appeal (as well as Hillary's similar problem). A female VP makes that problem even worse. A the VP should not be dramatically older than Obama either (no Daddy images, please).

Wes Clark seems obvious, but another well known office-holder or military figure that passes the Tweety manliness test doesn't come to mind right now. Governor Rendell? Sen. Chris Dodd? (Don't even mention Biden!)

[It STILL is very tedious having to enter ID info and captcha TWICE]

Let's also not forget his ugly history of sexist treatment of women in the military. In the 70s and 80s, he advocated keeping women out of the service academies and barring them from combat and from high-level noncombat positions in the military. He also made many sexist and degrading comments about and actions toward women he worked with and taught.

It's no secret that plenty of men in the military, then and now, are extremely sexist. Even so, he stood out, and appears to have been far worse than most.

He claims he no longer believes now what he believed then, but sorry -- I think he's a flaming a-hole, and I really don't want him holding the second highest office in the land. I can accept him as a Democrat senator from red state, but I really wouldn't want him to be on the ticket. He is valuable on the senate, and there are many other highly qualified people who would be just fine in the veep slot.

This would especially be the case if Obama is the nominee, because I worry that Obama has a much greater chance of being assassinated than your standard white guy. There's a not-inconsiderable chance that Obama's veep could actually become president, and therefore, I think he ought to choose someone the party as a whole would be comfortable with as president.

Webb ain't the guy.

The post is spot on with the rationalle why Webb - nor Warner (Mark-type) - should be considered for VP. They both will be a more significant positive contribution to the Commonwealth and the Republic by serving in the Senate.

Also just wanted to say one sorta unrelated thing re:

"Webb was in combat on the ground. McCain wasn't. Do you really want to hear Tweety go on and on with his manly crush in McCain for the next eight months?"

I have no frackin idea who Tweety is, but I think Webb and McCain have a mutual respect for each other that came out of a shared alma matter & vietnam experience and working with each other when Webb was SecNav. IIRC 'the nightengale's song' talked about it.

Webb's also on his third wife (this one's Vietnamese) and he's weirdly obsessed with the Scotch-Irish role in history. More generally, I don't think he's as ready for prime time as everyone thinks he is.

He's Andrew Jackson with out the racism(and yeah, Webb isn't the hero of the Battle of New Orleans either). Why do you think it is a weird obsession for? His lineage traces back to the Scots/Irish so why wouldn't he be interested in it?

I certainly like Webb, but VP, not so sure.

I am with you on the military thing, being in the military is nice, but as a candidate, doesn't do a thing for me. Like Wesly Clark. Was a terrible candidate.

Oh BTW. Edwards couldn't spell populism in 04.

I have no idea who Obama should choose. ABC. Anybody but Clinton.

I wonder - if Bill Richardson is Obama's VP choice, assuming Obama wins the election - does he PULL IN a lot of the Hispanic vote, that is opting for Hilary now, against McCain?

If it helps on the demographics of Hispanics, that's a very very big win, right?

Someone should run the numbers on how much it helps, via how much it hurts to have a completely "non-white" ticket.

Kolohe:
Tweety = Chris Matthews

I am sure Webb and McCain have respect for each other. That being said, I'll need a lot of hard liqour to get through listening to Tweety banter on about his revolving Aqua Velva man crush.

One point is that there's potential campaign traction to be made in reducing the power of the OVP.

If you have a Veep candidate who's happy to say 'well, it won't just be attending funerals, but it won't be running an off-the-books intelligence operation', that's a selling point. I think there's a desire for Not Dick Cheney.

Solidifying VA is more important. Two Dem senators and a Dem governor is the sort of thing that allows for many, many WaPo 'what if he'd never said "macaca"?' pieces.

I'll need a lot of hard liqour to get through listening to Tweety banter on about his revolving Aqua Velva man crush.
Joe Klein's conscience

Well I know who "Tweety" is but as to why in the world you'd want to watch him "banter on" about ANYTHING is beyond me.
My 2c. let Webb stay in the senate, find another veep. I like the idea of Richardson. I don't really have a problem with Hillary as VP candidate-or Obama depending on how the race runs out.

Webb definitely should stay in the Senate. It suits his temperament, and he could hold the seat for the Dems for many years.

Dean:
So you are okay with a gaffe prone guy like Richardson? He's okay, I am just warning you to be prepared for what he might do on the campaign trail. Also, are you okay with Richardson being the candidate 8 years hence(which is the beef with Hillary because I don't want Evan Bayh anywhere but the Senate)?

I feel bad for Ezra. Here he is, a kid, and he's neutral in his generation's 1968.
How will he feel when conversation turns, in 20 or 30 years, to the great Obama movement and poor Ezra has to say, "I sat it out."
It will be like recalling '68 and your support for LBJ. You don't know what you are missing, E. You are young only once and I doubt there will be another candidate like Obama for decades.
And you are actually undecided between him and Hubert Humphrey.
Sad.

It will be like recalling '68 and your support for LBJ. You don't know what you are missing, E. You are young only once and I doubt there will be another candidate like Obama for decades. And you are actually undecided between him and Hubert Humphrey.

If I thought seeing Obama go down would shut these bad-poetry-writing, head-in-the-clouds delusional voters and gadflies hoping to get a "do-over" of 1968, I'd be all for it. Unfortunately, the evidence we have seems to indicate that defeat would only make them more insufferable in the coming decades.

Oh, I completely misunderstood that post JKC. I thought tweety was some poster here and Webb would be some sort of way to 'swiftboat' mccain, which I wasn't quite following.
I now see your goal, as quixotic as it is. (You still don't get it, do you? He talks. That's what he does. That's all he does! You can't stop him. He'll wade through hackery, reach for pathetic segues, and talk your frackin ears off.)

I agree with you whole-heartedly, but sadly CW seems to always pick the stupidest possible vice president. Gore deprived us of a Southern Senator, Lieberman if elected VP would have caused the Senate to sway GOP with his Republican appointed replacement, and Edwards, while committed to not running again, contributes to that problem.

So yeah, I really fear another moderate from a moderate-conservative region will get VP slot, an deprive of us an important seat without really adding to the ticket.

The only really important effect of choosing a VP seems to be, that if you get elected 8 years, you GUARANTEE who the VP nominee will be (if they want it). So just choose who you personally would like to be the nominee 8 years from now.

Btw, for the record, I think HRC would pick Clark.

I had a crazy idea that I still kind of like.

Michael Bloomberg.

The advantages:

1. Then he won't run for president.
2. He'll end up in a political graveyard.
3. The Broder types in the press that want him to run will like the move, like the possibility of a Democrat/Independent ticket.
4. He's basically a liberal, had great things to say about GOP fearmongering over terrorism, socially liberal and good on domestic issues as well.
5. He really only became a Republican to be in a better position to run for mayor. In spite of that he might be able to give a "the Republican Party left me" speech at the convention.

Just think: Obama/Bloomberg 08. Loads of "bridging the partisan divide" talk from candidates advocating an essentially liberal agenda, yet a surprising number of people will believe it coming from them.

You hear about Webb a lot because he's a local Senator and people in DC are myopic.

To run against McCain, Obama really does need somebody to address the perceived gap in gravitas and the real gap in security experience, even at the risk that some will question who's really in charge on security matters. Webb fills that need. So do Wes Clark and Senator Nelson (FL, not NB). Richardson also could do so, while addressing Obama's apparent weakness with Hispanic voters. All come from swing states and could help carry a key state.

People like Sebelius who don't bring any security cred to the ticket shouldn't even be considered, although I know saying that will deeply offend Ezra.

Kathy G., those are some really good points. If the Democratic nominee wins two terms, they basically have to endorse their VP for president if they decide to run. A President Webb would just be so... blah. We really don't need a sexist guy in this day and age.

On the one hand, Senate VP's tend to take away a swing seat. Governors lack foreign policy experience. As such, Webb is out because we need his seat. Mary Landrieu could help shore up Clinton's base and help in the South potentially, but was hurt by Katrina and is a Senator. I doubt Blanche Lincoln would want to be the non-Arkansas candidate's VP and is a Senator.

We could choose a Senator from a relatively safe seat. Russ Feingold could fit the bill. Anecdotally, a lot of conservative Republicans in the Midwest like and respect him and the Midwest is somewhere that is prime for turning blue, in addition to Virginia, Florida, Nevada and Colorado. However, he might be too liberal and doesn't provide geographical balance to the ticket. A left-field choice like Inouye might be too much change too soon with having a black-Asian ticket, but it would be helpful to have a veteran as VP, but he might be too old. He also endorsed Clinton. Both Feingold and Inouye, however, would likely be replaced by Democrats.

My suggestion? Maybe Max Cleland. He's out of the Senate, is a war hero, has his scars from fighting the Republicans. The fact that the Republicans went after his patriotism can be brought up to slime them. McCain would either have to defend Bush on such slime or disavow Bush and thus give the evangelicals another reason to stay home.

The wildly popular Mark Warner is almost certainly going to be a senator (replacing the wildly dull Warner) if he and/or the candidate ignore your advice.

Also would Webb be replaced for 2 years by Caine's pick ?

Anyway you are totally right. Sen Webb does not have the soul of a vice president.

I think it would be important for Obama to select someone who is well-established, both to counteract his perceived 'newness' and to provide an extra person knowledgable in working through the Washington maze, esp. the legislative process. It should also be someone with a strong foreign policy background and who would fully accepted as a credible, capable president in the event. To me this suggest one person in particluar: Joe Biden.

I know he isn't a governor or from a swing state .. but remember how positive the reaction was to the non-traditional selection of Gore by B. Clinton. I think the voters appreciated that he was someone who would work effectively alongside the president, would be a capable president on his own, and who shared the policy and approach of the presidential candidate. I think Joe Biden would bring those same strengths - and more.

Campaign finance law question: if the Democratic ticket were Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton, could the VP candidate use cash left over from his or her primary campaign in the general?

I don't know, Elizabeth, don't you think Joe Biden is too old? By the time Barack Obama finishes his second term Biden would be ... what ... 73 years old? I like Joe Biden because he's a seasoned politican and very likeable on camera (he's good at giving memorable quotes), but he'll be a better Sec of State than VP.

After Biden's "clean and articulate" comment, the election campaign would end up being a lot of Biden having to explain that and asking Obama if he thought it was racist. If Clinton ends up with Biden or anyone with more experience than her as VP, that will just show how hollow that part of her candidacy is in a general election.

And it's a little odd the captha below for me right now starts with "KKK."

I agree that McCain's lack of combat experience is important.
Would he have supported the surge, for example?

But, it must be approached very carefully. That does not sound like Jim Webb's style.

Leave Webb where he is!

It's Jon Corzine syndrome all over again: An effective Senator who had designs on higher office (state governor, has been the clearer path to the White House, at least for the last three or four decades). As governor of NJ, Corzine is a dismal failure in his own right--and doubly so when compared to his interim predecessor, Dick Codey.

Well, I'm rather close to Biden's age myself, so of course it doesn't seem so terribly 'old' to me. And he's 6 years younger than John McCain. ----- I don't think it would make Biden too old to serve in VP capacity or as pres, if needed. He wouldn't run afterwards, I don't think, but it isn't really unhealthy to have a situation where there's no 'designated heir' for the next term. --- Agree as to Secy of State, but who would be a better VP? I think there are others who could do Secy of State maybe even better (witty candor not necessarily the best qualification) and it wouldn't be like he wouldn't have input in that area. -- Biden would be a very good 'scrapper' in the campaign, leaving Obama to the higher road. -- Plus, can you just imagine those two smiles on a campaign poster!!

Teddy K. for veep.

Jamey:
Do you know why Corzine is a failure? New Jersey is like a super-sized Chicago(meaning machine politics). Corzine doesn't want to play the machine games. Hell, the only reason the Dem establishment in Jersey was okay with Corzine running was because he'd fund it completely out of his own pocket. Corzine thought he could run bulldoze the political machine. They weren't going to let that happen.

The problem is that Webb doens´t want to be a VP. He already said that he wants to end his term, and being a VP candidate is a bad business.

If you lose your political career is damaged(Sometimes it´s over), if you win you have a tough chance of being elected successor.

And McCain was a POW. I may not like his ideas but he has a astonishing macho factor.

Kolohe:
You are the one that doesn't get it. The gaffes I am talking about are major, like when he mentioned "Whizzer" White as a hero(I think the Supreme he most indentified with or something). The problem is that White was not pro-choice. If you don't see what I am getting at now, then i can't help you.

You hear about Webb a lot because he's a local Senator and people in DC are myopic.

Maybe, but that's not all of it. Webb unexpectedly won a Senate race against an opponent who was controversial but well regarded on the right (sure, he won because Allen imploded rather than because of anything Webb did, but still.) He's a veteran, and the Democratic Party leadership has been eager to hype them every chance they get. He's an ex-Republican, and you know how the beltway media loooves bipartisanship and crossover appeal and blah blah blah. These are not necessarily virtues, but they are exactly the kind of things the national media likes and pays attention to.

Yes, leave Webb where he is. I held my nose and voted for him, and he has turned out to be doing an OK job. However, I am REALLY jazzed about the prospect of voting for M. Warner for Senate!

It would almost make up for the time when the VA electorate said to themselves, "you know who would make an AWESOME senator? Why, Ollie North, THAT'S who! He's got LOTS of experience on Capitol Hill, after all." And almost elected him.

I think Ed Rendell would be a great choice, although I wonder how his Jewishness would fly. Maybe that would dispel all the Obama-Muslim rumors once and for all?

um, JKC, my last was a joke, riffing on a quote from the 1st terminator movie. But keep on tilting those windmills if it makes you happy.

(and I think is was Richardson who gave the 'my favorite SC justice was Byron White' answer, which he later ack was the thing he most regretted saying in the past year - but I could imagine Matthews probably did so to, for the same reason a Richardson: reflexive admiration of all things JFK.

Philly:
You do know that Rendell is a DLC'er, right? And an egomaniac? Being Obama's VP won't sooth Ed's big ego.

JK's c, yes I do know that Rendell's a DLCer, and he has some positions I'm not nuts about (like casino gambling as an economic solution to urban decay). He also endorsed Hillary.

However, I think he's got substantial rust-belt appeal. The man loves his cheesesteaks, he has a great sense of humor, and he seems to genuinely enjoy politics and people. I also think he'd be a great attack dog--he has lots of Philly attytood, but not borderline scary like Webb is.

I'm certainly open to hearing more substantive criticism. I'll admit I haven't thought this through. I just find Rendell to be a refreshing personality. The Russert-Matthews types love him... oh wait a minute, I may be talking myself out of my support for him...

Hmm... placing a relatively wooden politician in a position where they'd be insulated from any major decisions, potentially swing a state that traditionally goes Republican, be assured a Democrat would replace them, broaden appeal in a growth area for Democrats...

I have to agree, Sebelius looks like the best choice for Obama if he gets the nod. For Hillary... Wes Clark is good for the isolation reason, and maybe a governor from a midwestern state other than Kansas (I think the entire electorate would have kittens if the Dems sent out Hillary-Sebelius - fair or not, an all-female ticket likely would get crushed) would work. Any idea how well a Clinton-John Ritter (current governor of Colorado) ticket would do?

32_Footsteps:
It's Bill Ritter. John Ritter was on "Threes Company" in the 1970s.

You have some points. While I think Rendell is a corrupt big city pol, I'll give him his props. He did crush Lynn Swann in 2006(While I thought Rendell would win, I thought Swann would have gotten a lot more votes from Pittsburgh, being a famous Super Bowl hero Steeler and all).

Damn... that was a stupid mistake on my part.

Anyhow, doing a little more looking at Bill Ritter, he looks like he'd be a reasonable candidate for VP. Tacks to the right enough that he could cull some moderates while still being a fairly reliable Democrat, has high appeal among rural voters, would go over great in the suddenly-in-play mountain states, wouldn't alter the balance of power on the state or federal level... maybe some Coloradans might want to correct me on this, but Ritter looks like prime Veep material.

Good post, Ezra. Webb has been a huge disappointment. He's hardly been showing Bush the way, just following in his stupidity. Like the other Dems. But Obama better pick a strong VP. Or Hillary and Wes Clark will be the ones.

Rendell as a Veep pick would kill Tweety with orgasmic joy.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) has many of the same virtues (West Point grad, former Army Ranger) as Sen. Webb minus the electoral benefit but plus being from a safe seat.

I could see Reed being a low-key VP with a ton of clout at DoD, having Obama's ear as his most trusted military advisor, and being seen by most Americans as ready to step into the office of President. That's not a bad mix for VP.

Rhode Island's electoral votes...not so much. But it shows Obama is confident about winning and that might be worth whatever benefit a VP pick is supposed to bring (see Edwards '04, North Carolina).

Webb's certainly got some problems but also more character and more cojones than all the Superdelegates put together. McCain should take him as his Veep. Together, they'd be 2 extremely tough hombres--and maybe Webb could pull in a lot of the Hillbilly and Bubba vote. To beat that macho ticket, Obama or Clinton would need the late Charles Bronson or maybe Give-em-Hell-Harry, who could at least brag about tossing nukes around (but he'd need to lower his voice by an octave).

The V.P. should probably come from a Western or Great Plains state, preferably the latter to shore up the upper midwest as well.

Would it be crazy to suggest Sarah Palin, the shockingly popular Republican governor of Alaska as an interesting Veep choice for Obama?

I've been out walking my dog.

Have the Democrats nominated Obama already? That was fast.

Hey, if Obama wins, how about Tom Daschle?

What about former Senator Sam Nunn? Senator Obama could do a lot worse.

Is Jim Webb Gay?

He looks really gay in that picture...