THE STRANGE CASE OF EVAN BAYH.
Ben Nelson genuinely is a conservative Democrat. The Poole-Rosenthal rankings -- which most consider the leading measure of a congressman's relative ideology -- have, for years, ranked Nelson as the most conservative Democrats in the Senate. Call him Democrat #1. Evan Bayh, however, has not traditionally been number two. I went back in the rankings through the 107th Congress -- which began in 2001 -- to compare Bayh and Nelson's ideological consistency. The numbers on the Y axis represent how conservative of a Democrat each senator was. So #1 would be the most conservative Senate Democrat and #5 the fifth most conservative Senate Democrat and so on. The blue line is Bayh. The red line is Nelson.
To say Bayh lacks Nelson's steady hand on the wheel is a bit of an understatement. The two really interesting data points, however, are the 109th Congress, which stretched from 2005 to 2007, and the 110th Congress, which ended in January of this year. In the 109th Congress, Bayh's voting pattern suddenly develops an uncharacteristic liberalism. He becomes the 19th most conservative member, with a record more liberal than, among others, Joe Biden. As context, these were also the years when Bayh was preparing for the presidential run that he eventually aborted.
In the 110th Congress, however, that flash of liberalism gives way to a career-high conservatism: He actually displaces Nelson as the Caucus's most conservative member. He's running for reelection in Indiana this year, but this is also the year that Indiana's tectonic plates shift and the state chooses that Obama guy. So I'm not going to pretend that I fully understand the motivations behind the sharp swings in Bayh's voting record.Bbut they're undeniably present, and seem to be keyed to political campaigns. Bayh is much steadier during the 107th and 108th Congresses, when no elections loom.
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COMMENTS (67)
Can't blame him. It isn't like Indiana just went blue for the first time in about half a century.
Posted by: Obama / Steelers / etc | April 3, 2009 11:44 AM
Maybe we can say bye, bye to Bayh after the next election to his seat.
His principal interest is not principle, but being on the limelight express.
My opinion is that he was pissed that Biden was chosen and not him.
I've got some benjamins set aside to send to a viable progressive that might be ready to contest him in the next Dem. Senatorial primary.
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | April 3, 2009 11:52 AM
First he thought that he had a shot at becoming the Democratic presidential nominee..no go.
Then he thought that maybe he had a shot at becoming the Vice President...no go.
Now, being the embittered slug that he is, he is going to make the Obama administration pay for that slight every chance that he gets.
He knows that he has no shot at being the nominee for at least eight more years. Being Mr. Also Ran honks. He was sooo outclassed.
I see that JimPortlandOR got there first, but I totally agree.
What a jerk.
Posted by: lilysmom | April 3, 2009 12:02 PM
Given this statement from the previous post:
This was, in a strange sense, the safe play. Because the budget only requires 50 votes, their opposition didn't seriously imperil the President's budget. If eight more Democrats had signed on, it would have, and there would have been consequences. But the consequences of ineffectual opposition are all positive. Bayh and Nelson have elevated their status as the Democrats willing to imperil the President's priorities. They've assured that the media will say the names "Bayh and Nelson" a lot.
And the graph showing that Bayh tends to be reasonably "moderate" but then when push comes to shove he does tow the party line (especially when looking to get votes from that party), isn't Bayh our Democratic version of Specter? Making sure to be on the news in terms of "see ... the Democrats include moderate and reasonably folks" but never doing anything to actually undermine us (unlike, e.g. Holy Joe who's voting record was, at one time, relatively liberal, but who very much undermined the Democratic party).
Posted by: DAS | April 3, 2009 12:04 PM
Bayh's an opportunist who's looking to maximize his position. He had to get closer to the Democratic median as he considered running for President/campaigning for the VP slot, but now that the government is a unified Democratic one his ticket to exposure is being the go to anti-Obama Democratic Senator.
Posted by: Brien Jackson | April 3, 2009 12:04 PM
The only redeeming quality about Evan Bayh is the infinite opportunities for punning.
Posted by: StephanieInCA | April 3, 2009 12:05 PM
Whose pocket is he in?
Posted by: par4 | April 3, 2009 12:10 PM
Evan Bayh is a dick. He is trying to give LIEbemran a run for his money as the worst person that caucuses with the Democrats. He loves the attention he gets from being opposed to his own President in the President's own party.
Again, DICK.
Posted by: Shaun | April 3, 2009 12:24 PM
The Poole-Rosenthal rankings ... have, for years, ranked Nelson as the most conservative member of the Congress.
You do mean "most conservative Democratic member of the Senate", no? (I don't think that the Poole-Rosenthal method can even compare Senators with Representatives, as it is based on comparing responses to a set of roll-call votes.)
Posted by: Alex R | April 3, 2009 12:49 PM
I am deeply repulsed by this article.
The cynicism behind this whole way of thinking about democracy is absolutely breathtaking. The idea that a senator's opinion ranks him or her on a scale of 1 to 100 trivializes the entire world to your stupid football game.
The world, in case you missed it, is in a sorry state and old ideas from either established camp will prove worthless. We have important decisions to make! The whole idea of a liberal/conservative score implies that no actual thought is or ever has been necessary.
Posted by: Michael Tobis | April 3, 2009 1:15 PM
I think you mean that Ben Nelson is the most conservative Democrat in Congress, not the most conservative member of Congress.
Posted by: Brainster | April 3, 2009 1:17 PM
Lieberman is a fairly reliable vote on domestic policy, so there's a gap in the market.
Posted by: pseudonymous in nc | April 3, 2009 1:25 PM
Is there anyone set to primary Bayh?
Posted by: Connor | April 3, 2009 1:32 PM
Nearly everyone in DC is motivated by self-interest, but there are a few that are so selfish they are on self-interest steriods and they are also consumed by the camera. These people have little, if any qualities to admire. Lieberman, Spectar, McConnell, Boehner, and others. Bayh is someone I put on this list.
Posted by: xargaw | April 3, 2009 1:38 PM
Bayh felt the budget too expensive (his wife is raking in mega money from health insurers) so as a matter of principal he did not vote for it - but wait, why did he vote yes for a big break for multi millionaires on the estate tax?
Posted by: JS | April 3, 2009 1:43 PM
You couldn't have gone with "Curious Case"?
Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | April 3, 2009 2:00 PM
It only takes one word to explain it -- "Bi-polar". D
Posted by: David G. | April 3, 2009 2:10 PM
Note that the Poole rankings are ordinal and, if you look across several congresses, Bayh's misclassification rate often runs high. What this means is that the 109th congress was the aberrant case, not the 110th.
Posted by: Robert | April 3, 2009 2:19 PM
Sen Bayh is a finger to the wind type of guy. Clearly he is now the ranking opportunist among Sen Democrats.
Posted by: alan | April 3, 2009 2:21 PM
As a friend of mine from Indiana said about what he might add as a VP nominee. "Well, he's cute." That's all. He's photogenic so they like to put him on TV a lot.
So glad Obama knew better.
Posted by: kajey | April 3, 2009 2:22 PM
People misunderstand Bayh. He's very conservative on budgetary but liberal on labor issues. He has a strong record on women and minority issues. Hoping for a liberal primary in Indiana would be terrible. Bayh wins Indiana, others don't. It always seems that people get swept away by Obama's historic win. But as they say lightning never strikes twice.
Posted by: chris | April 3, 2009 2:30 PM
I've always hated Bayh, and was glad that he never got anywhere close to the vice presidency, as people were chatting about when Clinton was still running.
Posted by: J Q Public | April 3, 2009 2:30 PM
Hoping for a liberal primary in Indiana would be terrible. Bayh wins Indiana, others don't. It always seems that people get swept away by Obama's historic win. But as they say lightning never strikes twice.
Sometimes it does. If enough people enough time on a hilltop in stormy weather surrounded by metal objects while making a theologically dubious movie (not that I think that had anything to do with it, but you never know), then sooner or later some assistant director will probably get struck twice. Likewise, if enough smart liberal politicians run against moronic conservatives in places that have been driven deeply enough into the ground by conservative leadership, sooner or later more than one liberal will win.
Posted by: Cyrus | April 3, 2009 2:59 PM
Bayh should talk to his Father or should I say his Father should have heart to heart talk with his. Birch Bayh was one of the best Progressive Senators we have ever.
Posted by: phastphil | April 3, 2009 3:00 PM
Nicholas... You must know what the reference is to?
It's an article about a guy who jerks wildly between two positions...One in which we consider to be, roughly, good. The other which we decide is, roughly, bad. In that context, 'The strange case of...' is a more pertinent reference.
Posted by: soullite | April 3, 2009 3:02 PM
To those who says we can never, ever, ever primary Democrats: Why not?
We have 58 seats. We're not getting anything we want. Why would it matter if we lost the seat? Our majority isn't getting us anything we want, and on the issues that are most important to some of us, these guys are the enemy every bit as much as Republicans. Why should we make our isses subordinate to your issues? Why is it preferable to have a 58-person caucus that can't get it's shit together rather than a highly disciplines 54-person caucus?
Until any of you can answer that, spare us your BS.
Posted by: soullite | April 3, 2009 3:05 PM
Evan Bayh is a tool! That merkin on top of his head makes him look like a serial killer. I'm a resident of New Jersey but I can tell you that the blogs all over are flowing with people ready to line up and fund anyone who runs against him. I'm glad Obama didn't select this dork. He has the personality of lint. Let's all band together to deplete his fund raising abilities. Once we've picked of several other Republican seats in the next term, Bayh will become even more impotent than he is now.
Posted by: roxanne | April 3, 2009 3:19 PM
Alas, the pup is indeed half the dog as his pa (Birch Bayh). I guess he learned the wrong lesson from his dad's defeat in 1980 by the likes of Danforth Quayle: A Hoosier politician with principles had better cover his progressive tracks or risk defeat at the hands of a shallow (conservative) glamourpuss. Moral=run as a shallow glamourpuss without progressive principles.
Posted by: xpatriate | April 3, 2009 3:49 PM
I think it's better to assume the guy really believes the way he votes. Nobody runs for office without the supreme confidence that they're the best person for the job. Nobody runs thinking they're going to get rich being someone else's tool.
Posted by: Aatos | April 3, 2009 4:01 PM
Then he thought that maybe he had a shot at becoming the Vice President...no go.
Yes, but Obama shouldn't have toyed with him as he revealed his VP choice saying he is looking forward to working with "Vice-president Bayh...
[pause]
den."
Then he added, "Psych!"
Posted by: MarkC | April 3, 2009 4:10 PM
Mr. Bayh deserves the Lieberman treatment. We need to run a progressive against him if for no other reason that to scare the crap out of him.
Posted by: yellowduc | April 3, 2009 4:51 PM
Nobody is going to challenge Bayh in a primary here - no way. And even if he did somehow lose I don't see anyone that could win in the general.
Senator Lugar will be retiring soon and there are a number of Republicans angling for the seat. Mike Pence and Governor Daniels would both be formidable candidates for any Democrat.
I threw in the towel on Bayh after he supported the bankruptcy bill and the flag-burning amendment which is the single most worthless piece of legislation around.
However, I wouldn't take the conclusions from Obama's narrow victory too far. This is Indiana and it's still a fairly conservative state.
Posted by: Pruitt | April 3, 2009 5:38 PM
You need look no further for Bayh's motivation than his list of campaign contributors - heavy on insurance companies and law firms which support / defend big insurance companies.
Funny how a campaign contribution works *exactly* like a bribe, isn't it?
This is not what the nation voted for when we chose Obama to lead us to health care. Bayh may regret his Republican leanings eventually, but we're *all* going to regret them right now, if he succeeds in killing national health care.
Posted by: Ankhorite | April 3, 2009 7:28 PM
Bull's-eye.
Great post Ezra. Thanks.
Posted by: Gary Sugar | April 3, 2009 8:36 PM
Have there been any credible Better Democrats that have spoken about a primary run against Even Bayh?
2010 won't have Obama's coattails to help.
Indiana's been conservative for a long time. 2010 may have economic circumstances that break the simplistic guns, gays, and God voter patterns but the right will still be shrilly using those red herrings to to distract voters.
Also, who are the potential Republican senatorial candidates? Anyone know?
Posted by: News Reference | April 3, 2009 8:51 PM
I wonder how much of a political swing it takes to make someone move from 8th most conservative to 19th and back to 1st. That is, how many actual votes on issues that were politically polarized would it take. Unfortunately, Poole and Rosenthal don't provide us with that information, only a ranking of liberality or conservatism, as you choose to view it. Their methodology also doesn't discriminate between major issues and minor issues, only whether their ranking system creates a minimum of 'errors' when it is compared to the actual voting record. It's interesting, to be sure, but it's not the whole story.
Maybe the better question is "What is your beef with Evan Bayh?" It seems better to have a left-leaning moderate in his seat than the conservative Republicans he's run against. If you look at what the guy votes on, he's mostly pro-choice (except partial birth), he's pro-gay, he has not completely sold out to business, he's pro-environment, and pro-gun control.
Posted by: JasonPatterson | April 3, 2009 10:06 PM
Jason Patterson i disagree, i think its pretty clear bayh has sold out completely, to business
Posted by: solerso | April 3, 2009 10:46 PM
To paraphrase what I said in another post:
Evan Bayh of 2009 wants to be John McCain of 2001, with the hopes of one day becoming the John McCain of 2008.
He wants to be President. Until now he's wanted to get there by latching onto a presidential nominee as veep. But after FOUR nominees in a row have spurned his advances, it's no more Mister Nice Guy.
Posted by: BlackMage | April 3, 2009 11:02 PM
Three thoughts from a Hoosier:
1.Bayh has no character at all, none, and is not very bright either.
2. The Republican who runs against him will be so awful, that we Dems will have to vote for him anyway.
3. He will win re-election.
Posted by: Lindiana | April 4, 2009 10:09 AM
Interesting, the number of so-called "progressive" sock puppets on this string having a hissy fit because Blue Dogs even DARE to exist.
IMO we're going to see a huge shift of swing voters move back to the Center in 2010 as a repudiation of Obama's grossly irresponsible plan to triple the national debt...in return for grandiose big govt programs of questionable value. The Reps have nothing to offer...but a harmless nothing is a hell of a lot better than Obama's disasterous "something".
Posted by: JohnR | April 4, 2009 12:47 PM
Interesting, the number of so-called "progressive" sock puppets on this string having a hissy fit because Blue Dogs even DARE to exist.
IMO we're going to see a huge shift of swing voters move back to the Center in 2010 as a repudiation of Obama's grossly irresponsible plan to triple the national debt...in return for grandiose big govt programs of questionable value. The Reps have nothing to offer...but a harmless nothing is a hell of a lot better than Obama's disasterous "something".
Posted by: JohnR | April 4, 2009 12:48 PM
The only reason obama won Indiana is that the criminals in ACORN invaded Gary.
Posted by: Reilly | April 4, 2009 1:26 PM
I'm thinking here that even Sen Lugar is more progressive than Bayh. Which is just strange, considering that Bayh is still hated by Indiana Republicans.
Posted by: MarkusR | April 4, 2009 3:06 PM
I've been a liberal (oops, I mean progressive) longer than most of you have been alive and.....I admire Evan Bayh. This sham of a budget will be the demise of our great nation and we need more Democrats to boldly acknowledge and state how our increased debt burden is unsustainable. Most Americans and the media will see this in about a year or two and Bayh will be well-positioned politically for his foresight.
Posted by: Citizen70 | April 4, 2009 4:31 PM
Bayh came to Iowa in '06, where he found a bunch of quality operatives to train for his Presidential run. I bet NONE of them would support him now. We see 'em all here in the Hawkeye State, and I would classify Bayh as Gephardt without the intellectual heft. He's a legacy, like our governor now. Both will be beaten by Republicans in 2010.
Posted by: Ahmed | April 4, 2009 6:19 PM
Evan Bayh won re-election in 2004 with 2.5 million MORE votes than Bush, who easily beat Kerry.
Citizen70 is absolutely correct - this budget is worse than a sham, and I admire Evan Bayh for having the backbone to vote no. There is no way the US can sucker investors to buy that much debt, so the Fed will inflate our way until the dollar collapses.
Most registered Democrats like me are NOT liberal. Alas, I shall have to vote for a dead cat before I ever vote again for the Senator FOR Wall Street Chuck Schumer. The only way I can protest the hijacking of the Democratic Party by the intolerant left, actually worse than the intolerant right because the left is scarier.
John R says it very well - driving fiscal conservatives out of the Democratic Party will drive millions of us to vote GOP, regardless of who it is, in order to try to put a brake on this insanity.
Posted by: K2K | April 4, 2009 9:01 PM
Evan Bayh won re-election in 2004 with 2.5 million MORE votes than Bush, who easily beat Kerry.
Citizen70 is absolutely correct - this budget is worse than a sham, and I admire Evan Bayh for having the backbone to vote no. There is no way the US can sucker investors to buy that much debt, so the Fed will inflate our way until the dollar collapses.
Most registered Democrats like me are NOT liberal. Alas, I shall have to vote for a dead cat before I ever vote again for the Senator FOR Wall Street Chuck Schumer. The only way I can protest the hijacking of the Democratic Party by the intolerant left, actually worse than the intolerant right because the left is scarier.
John R says it very well - driving fiscal conservatives out of the Democratic Party will drive millions of us to vote GOP, regardless of who it is, in order to try to put a brake on this insanity.
Posted by: K2K | April 4, 2009 9:05 PM
Fact one - Evan Bayh is actually Birch Bayh III, his father Birch Bayh II, was a three term senator who lost his seat (to Dan Quayle) in 1980. Backlash from Carter's unpopularity. This is a family that can't help but be a little paranoid about what the failings of a Democratic President can do to their career(s).
Fact two - Bayh has been able to talk a nice moderate game in his home state, while being a reliable democrat in DC, nobody really paid attention to how he voted, just his rhetoric. The balance of power in the senate has made every vote important, and he's naked in public now.
fact three - While the polls show that (for the time being)President Obama still remains personally popular, his policies are not at all popular here in Indiana, and it's the policies that Bayh has to vote for.
Bayh is on the bubble, and he knows it. He is trying to play a delicate balancing act.
Posted by: HoosierHawk | April 5, 2009 1:16 AM
Bayh may be toast if the the GOP puts up Governor Daniels, Mike Pence, or Bobby Knight (I kid you not!). Obama, Pelosi and Reid using the recession to cram big government socialism down our throats will lead to a very bad 2010 & 2012 for the Dems.
Posted by: Felix335 | April 5, 2009 9:19 AM
I like many of the reasons listed here here regarding why Bayh voted the way he did. Still, no one is talking about the political climate that is Indiana.
Democrats won 5 of the 9 House races in the state in 2008, and those 5 were all expected wins. We got our clocks cleaned in the other 4, and had a 15 point loss in one that the DCCC started throwing money at toward the end (Souder v. Montagano)
Furthermore, Governor Daniels (R) won by 18 points whilst distancing himself from the Republicans (wouldn't be part of any Palin photo-ops). Also note that Obama only won Indiana by 1%.
While Bayh won in 2004 with 61% of the vote, he still is in a red state. I don't know if he is concerned that someone will use his voting record against him in 2010, but frankly that only hurts Democrats. A liberal Democrat may be able to primary Bayh, but that sort of candidate may not fair as well in a general.
Regardless, I've never been a big fan of Bayh. Too bad his father Birch won't primary him....
Posted by: ChicagoHoosier | April 5, 2009 6:39 PM
This is in response to K2K and JohnR, the gentlemen who are complianing about the budget:
If you voted for Obama, then I am not sure what it is about the budget that you do not like, as there is nothing contained in it that was not discussed during the campaign. If you did not vote for Obama, but are legitimately angry w/ the budget because you feel it spends to much, then that is fine. I assume that you must have seen the GOP's "budget" earlier this week, you know, the one that promised tax cuts for everyone, freeze in non-defense spending at today's levels for 10 years, yet still had deficits of $500 billion dollars as far as the eye can see! That same budget also included means testing of Medicare, eliminating it for everyone under 55; some sort of dual tax system, thus adding more confusion to an already confused system (and I should know, I am a tax lawyer!), and in general is irresponsible and unrealistic. Even the AEI, which is not a liberal institution, called it silly. Are you saying that is preferable to what was passed!
But, of course the American people would choose $500 billion dollar deficits w/ no health care, a damaged environment, a disabled financial system, and a regressive tax code over a $600 billion dollar deficit w/ universal health care, a more energy efficient economy, better schools, roads, and a more progressive tax code.
Or, I could choose to believe that the American people are not as stupid as either K2K or JohnR look. I would suggest these two stick to what they do best, such as playing Dungeons and Dragons, or searching internet personal adds!
"Never argue w/ a fool, because you will soon take his place!"
An old African-American Proverb.
Posted by: TheHamiltonian | April 5, 2009 9:19 PM
Jill Long Thompson, the liberal Democrat who ran against Mitch for governor in 2008, wants to challenge Bayh in the primary. Those of you who are itching to help fund a serious progressive primary challenger against him should email her and let her know that, or maybe even set up a website devoted to drafting her to do it. I think she will if she sees that the support is there.
Posted by: Eric | April 7, 2009 7:27 AM
While I don't like Bayh's votes, I don't think that he's really that much of a troublemaker. He might be the only Democrat not understanding the massive ideological shift occurring right now, but so far, he hasn't derailed any legislation. His vote didn't threaten the budget, he voted FOR the stimulus bill, and Democrats achieved everything they wanted so far (Stimulus, Schip, Ledbetter, Obama budget). In my opinion, Bayh is just collecting some conservative credentials to avoid a republican challenge - and it's working!
Let's see how he votes on EFCA. I am quite sure that he wouldn't vote against it, if his vote made it fail. After all, Indiana is a rust-belt state and the state with the highest share of manufacturing jobs.
Posted by: Ambergris | April 11, 2009 5:57 AM
I live in Indiana, and this isn't strange to me at all. It's Indiana! Although we voted blue in the Presidential election, Governor Daniels (R) still won in a landslide. Bayh's seat is up for grabs in 2010, and if he doesn't vote conservative here lately, he'll lose it in the general election. The reason he wins the orimary is because he's a conservative Dem. A Progressive candidate would get shellacked here. After 2010 he'll go back to his moderate/progressive self, until his seat comes back up again. It's nothing against Obama, but Bayh can't exactly help him if he loses his seat.
Posted by: MikeMan | April 11, 2009 1:46 PM
The reason for this seems obvious. The presidential primaries happened during the 109th Congress, and Bayh was often seen as a potential VP. Even at his most liberal, he's still on the conservative half of the Dem spectrum, so he would've been good for the general, but he had to shift left so the base wouldn't be upset if he were picked.
Ever since Obama won, part of him is going back to his old ideological stance. You also can't rule out the notion that he is miffed at losing the VP slot to Biden. He's trying to gain power and influence by starting the Senate Blue Dogs, and getting to be a thorn to Obama is just an added bonus.
Posted by: BearDown85 | April 11, 2009 2:27 PM
Sounds like Bayh is correct to me.
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Bayh's votes are up for the highest bidder. He is the epitome of what is wrong with congress. A career politician with a lawyer wife employed by lobbyists. I'm a liberal and I want to take this opportunity to apologize to America for Evan Bayh-D Indiana.
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