THREE FLAVORS OF DELICIOUS RECONCILIATION.
I know that the reconciliation discussion is getting a bit hard to follow. The quick version is that reconciliation is a complicated budget process that could pass health reform with 50 votes. It short-circuits the filibuster. But to be used, reconciliation "instructions" must appear in the budget. They don't exist in the Senate budget. They do exist in the House budget. The question is what happens when the Senate and House meet to iron out their differences. After talking to various Hill sources today, there appear to be three serious possibilities:
- Straight-Up Reconciliation: Senate Democrats bow to the preferences of House Democrats and simply import the reconciliation instructions from their budget. Senate Republicans flee the process but are no longer needed anyway. The trick becomes where Harry Reid can hold his own caucus and fend off parliamentary challenges from Republicans (more on those here).
- Time Bomb Reconciliation: Senate Democrats and House Democrats agree on a new set of reconciliation instructions. Under this scenario, the budget only activates the reconciliation process in the event that there's no bill by the fall. Reconciliation then acts as an enforcer on the legislative time frame: If the two parties can't come to agreement by September or so, the reconciliation process activates and Republicans are essentially locked out.
- Back Pocket Reconciliation: Reconciliation is purged from the budget but the chairman of both budget committees essentially signal that if the normal process breaks down, they will pass budget revisions that include reconciliation instruction. Such revisions would only require 50 votes and 10 hours of floor debate.
The real action, I'm told, is between the second and third options. And it's simply a political judgment on whether Republicans are more or less likely to cooperate if they're threatened by reconciliation. The second option is more attractive if you believe that the threat of reconciliation should be omnipresent in the debate. It's the equivalent of having your mean, heavily-tattooed older brother stand quietly behind you when you ask the kids down the street if you can play ball with them. The third option is more attractive if you believe that the bipartisanship is likelier to work in an environment where Republicans don't think Democrats are willing to walk from the table at any moment.
The expectation is that the House and Senate will meet to work out their budgets after the April recess. So we should know soon enough.
Related: A reconciliation primer.
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COMMENTS (25)
If it's between two and three, then two must be used. A threat, once made, must be carried out. Everyone knows that. It's a rule somewhere, for something, and it's a good one.
Posted by: soullite | April 3, 2009 5:59 PM
If by "hard to follow" you mean "boring"... well, ya got me there.
Posted by: weboy | April 3, 2009 7:02 PM
Which approach is more attractive if the people across the table are irrational ideologues and dead-enders who would rather blow up the process than reach an agreement? By which I mean, the Republican leadership.
Posted by: biggerbox | April 3, 2009 8:23 PM
This repeated Dem. ass-kissing of the Republicans after their record of obstruction makes me SOOOO MAD. I'll just have to sit down and write them a letter telling them I may get really angry, someday.
So, the deadline is Sept, the month the budget at hand expires. (Fed fiscal year is Oct to Sep). What a farce.
I guess the Dems can't handle the charges that they are really MEAN from the GOP (and the media). They'd rather look stupid and feckless to the entire world (and the galaxy if CSPAN is watched that far away).
Best two-word description of the Democratic party: quivering jello.
I do give credit to Obama though for some Chicago-talk to the bank CEOs at the 3/27/09 meeting, as reported in Politico:
“These are complicated companies,” one CEO said. Offered another: “We’re competing for talent on an international market.”
But President Barack Obama wasn’t in a mood to hear them out. He stopped the conversation and offered a blunt reminder of the public’s reaction to such explanations. “Be careful how you make those statements, gentlemen. The public isn’t buying that.”
“My administration,” the president added, “is the only thing between you and the pitchforks.”
Now THAT's the way to run a meeting with self-centered pricks.
I'd give anything to have a video of their facial expressions and sounds when they heard that smackdown.
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | April 3, 2009 10:39 PM
whoops: forgot the linky above:
Inside Obama's bank CEOs meeting - Politico
[makes me feel dirty just pastig a link to that site]
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | April 3, 2009 10:44 PM
"And it's simply a political judgment on whether Republicans are more or less likely to cooperate if they're threatened by reconciliation."
Haven't we proven by now that there is virtually no circumstance in which Republicans in Congress will cooperate without being threatened?
Posted by: 14All | April 4, 2009 12:07 AM
Have your huge, tattooed elder brother whittle a piece of wood with a Bowie knife. Go for 2.
Posted by: James Wimberley | April 4, 2009 4:59 AM
Let me see, the Democrats who complained, gnashed teeth and flew through the roof because Bush 'overspent' in a time of war can't seem to figure out why everyone doesn't love a budget that triples the annual deficits we saw under Bush.
Some how all Republicans are just supposed to sign up to raping our grandchildren with 9 Trillion of Democrat social engineering debt.
Anyone who has any morals would have to vehemently oppose such an immoral budget as to throw a party for ourselves and put the bill on future generations.
If OBAMA AND THE LEFT ACTUALLY BELIEVE IN THEIR AGENDA, THEN SIMPLY RAISE THE TAXES TO PAY FOR IT. YOU HAVE THE VOTES, YOUR IN CHARGE, YOU WON..AS OBAMA WOULD SAY. WHY DON'T YOU SIMPLY HAVE THE MORAL COURAGE TO RAISE TAXES BY 9 TRILLION DOLLARS TO PAY FOR YOUR PARTY?
Posted by: Anonymous | April 4, 2009 7:01 AM
I see the NYT is having problems staying afloat and is looking for concessions from the union to keep the doors open.
What I don't understand is why they simply don't let Obama decide their fate. They have been his cheerleader...so how about you take your little business plan down to the White House, present it to The Dear Leader and let him decide if you should be fired, the company should go back rupt or if The Dear Leader just sicks the people with pitchforks on you.
Come on times, put your own ass on the line, put your paycheck where your mouths have been.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 4, 2009 7:14 AM
If the Dems go with reconciliation, they can bypass the obstruction of the GOPs and actually accomplish something. So it's like first and goal on the 1.
Since the GOPs don't have the numbers to obstruct, they're trying to game the Dems into obstructing themselves by committing not to use reconciliation.
Right now they're working it two ways. First, the GOPs are threatening that if the Dems do use reconciliation, they'll burn the place down.
Second, they're telling anyone who'll listen how constructive they are and will be, how we could reach bipartisan mandate nirvana if it weren't for the ugly smell of reconciliation in the air.
Of course, once Dems commit the Dems do promise to put it away, they pull the football back, stop payment on the check, come in their mouths, and filibuster everything.
It's clear what's going on - it's pretty obviously their only shot, but they're even money to pull it off, I think. The Dems fall for this kind of bullshit pretty regularly. It's unclear they want to get anything done bad enough to really consider whether the GOPs are acting in good faith. There might be discomfort; it would be a bit too much like work. Better to take everyone's word for it and keep going along. Their health care is pretty good.
Posted by: foxtrotsky | April 4, 2009 9:51 AM
Is there anyone here who thinks that 4 unelected judges imposing an agenda on an entire state is pretty fucked up? And the citizens of Iowa, majority of whom support traditional marriage, cannot act for years? How messed up is that? Repubs better to be ready to use this as an issue... otherwise this could be the domino to bring down the others. Nobody can disregard this as just a liberal blue state thing like MA, CT and CA.
We cant let millions of people's rights be violated because of a small sect of homo lovers.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 4, 2009 10:09 AM
Great post. I wonder what will happen now that the US will be printing 1 Trillion U$ to buy back debts, that is trillion with a "T". Will be be going to the grocery store with a wheel barrel full of money?
Posted by: Ned Vedo | April 4, 2009 1:41 PM
Great post. I wonder what will happen now that the US will be printing 1 Trillion U$ to buy back debts, that is trillion with a "T". Will be be going to the grocery store with a wheel barrel full of money?
Posted by: Ned Vedo | April 4, 2009 1:42 PM
Great post. I wonder what will happen now that the US will be printing 1 Trillion U$ to buy back debts, that is trillion with a "T". Will be be going to the grocery store with a wheel barrel full of money?
Posted by: Ned Vedo | April 4, 2009 1:43 PM
Great post. I wonder what will happen now that the US will be printing 1 Trillion U$ to buy back debts, that is trillion with a "T". Will be be going to the grocery store with a wheel barrel full of money?
Posted by: Anonymous | April 4, 2009 1:43 PM
We cant let millions of people's rights be violated because of a small sect of homo lovers.
Whereever a small sect of homo lovers gathers, I am with them in spirit.
Posted by: foxtrotsky | April 4, 2009 2:52 PM
We cant let millions of people's rights be violated because of a small sect of homo lovers.
Yeah, those darn Iowa courts denying the right of people to discriminate. How dare they!
Posted by: doug | April 4, 2009 4:28 PM
The real action, I'm told...
Told by whom, Ezra Klein?
Posted by: Anonymous | April 4, 2009 4:39 PM
The real action, I'm told...
Told by whom, Ezra Klein?
Posted by: Stuart Zechman | April 4, 2009 4:40 PM
Normally this kind of information would have had the liberals in an uproar about the corporate rich fat cats.... turns out most of those rich fat cats are fellow Democrats.
Lawrence Summers, a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, pulled in more than $2.7 million by firms at the heart of the financial crisis, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America Corp. and the now-defunct Lehman Brothers.
He pulled in another $5.2 million from D.E. Shaw, a hedge fund.
Thomas E. Donilon, Obama’s deputy national security adviser, was paid $3.9 million by the power law firm O’Melveny & Myers to represent clients including two firms that received federal bailout funds: Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.
And White House Counsel Greg Craig earned $1.7 million representing an exiled Bolivian president, a Panamanian lawmaker wanted by the U.S. government for allegedly murdering a U.S. soldier and a tech billionaire accused of securities fraud and various sensational drug and sex crimes.
-------------------------
Of course Obama thought these to be the most moral people to run his adminsration and tell his teleprompter what to say.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 5, 2009 7:05 AM
It is quite funny that the mainstream liberal media has remained silent on Obamas deep bow to the King of Saudi Arabia after the NYT attacked Client for slightly bowing during his administration:
So far, the media has remained entirely silent on Barack Obama’s deep-waist bow to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.
The New York Times sharply criticized Bill Clinton for a mere inclination of his shoulders towards Japanese Emperor Akihito in 1994:
""" It wasn’t a bow, exactly. But Mr. Clinton came close. He inclined his head and shoulders forward, he pressed his hands together. It lasted no longer than a snapshot, but the image on the South Lawn was indelible: an obsequent President, and the Emperor of Japan.
...........
If not to stand eye-to-eye with royalty, what else were 1776 and all that about? """"
The media took Clinton to task for even suggesting the unthinkable. Now they remain silent on Obama’s leap to the unthinkable:
As they say on Jouna-List; you have to treat Obama as the affirmative action President and cut him slack you don't give a white guy President who is expected to have character and class.
Posted by: Spunky | April 5, 2009 7:15 AM
It is quite funny that the mainstream liberal media has remained silent on Obamas deep bow to the King of Saudi Arabia after the NYT attacked Client for slightly bowing during his administration
I find it difficult to believe that the media is less willing, now, to obsess over trivialities than it used to, but we can only hope you're correct.
Is it just me, or is Anonymous becoming the "Don Williams" from MattY's blog of Ezra's comments section?
Posted by: Tyro | April 5, 2009 10:57 AM
this is so good. thanks
Posted by: run your car on water | April 6, 2009 12:34 AM
How do the House Dem's see getting the Health Care Reconciliation Bill through the Senate controlled by Robert Byrd?? As of 2 April he is now on the record saying he opposes the use of reconciliation as it dissolves the democratic process. Byrd the oldest Senator and President Pro Tempore and Chairman of the Committee on Appropriations wrote the 'Byrd Rule' and he intends enforcing this. He scuttled the Clinton reform exactly the same way. He has issued polite instructions to the House Dems on Reconciliation saying effectively...don't waste your time.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 7, 2009 6:37 PM
Do yourselves a favor and study Harold Wilson, Denis Healey and the British Leyland. Remember to leave room for a Margaret Thatcher to get elected.
If the choice is between Harold, Hugo or Hussein, at least go for Harold.
Posted by: Bob | April 8, 2009 11:43 AM