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EXTREMELY TRUE STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY.
Ryan Avent -- demonstrating once again that some enterprising publication should hire him immediately -- offers the smartest commentary you'll read on the stock market today:
Today’s conventional wisdom seems to be that the recent market rally has hit an apex. My assessment is that it has either hit an apex or hasn’t, in which case it will go up or down.
This is 100 percent true. By contrast, analyses of today's stock market drop that do not say this are not 100 percent true.
COMMENTS (25)
I'm an economist, and I get the "What's the market going to do?" or "What's real estate going to do?" or "What are interest rates going to do?" questions fairly regularly.
My response is to stroke my chin reflectively, gaze a few degrees upwards, and assert: "It will probably fluctuate."
That usually stops the discussion.
Posted by: Jesse | May 11, 2009 12:23 PM
Except its not 100% right the market could very well plateau and not move significantly in any direction.
Posted by: Rob | May 11, 2009 12:45 PM
Jesse, you have much to learn about economics. The proper answer is to list off a number of unrealistic assumptions, create a huge confidence interval for your prediction, then blame government interference when the outcome does not fall within that interval.
That is, if you're looking for a cushy job at a right wing economics think tank.
Posted by: Nylund | May 11, 2009 1:09 PM
Isn't there a famous story about J.P. Morgan being cornored by reporters during the 1929 market crash and, upon being asked what was going to happen in the stock market, he answered, "The market, sir, will fluctuate"?
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