High approval ratings ... in Virginia

Who's right?

Yeah. His approval ratings aren't that good lately and while he has been competent, he has not done anything worth remembering as Governor.

And may I add that knowing Obama and what he feels about leaks and what he expects of his team, I would suggest that the mere fact so many Kaine advisors have talked to journalists about this may put Kaine back down several notches on the list.

Kaine is pro-life. But he's not a woman, so that should make Hillary supporters happy.

I understand that he could help win Virginia, but don't you think that Kaine's pro-life stance might make former Hilary supporters even more furious with Obama?

I campaigned for and donated to Obama's campaign, and spent months hammering his NARAL rating into the heads of my pro-Hilary family, trying to convince as many of them as possible that he would be committed to maintaining some degree of choice. To see him choose Kaine would not leave me with a good feeling.

What a terrible idea. I get that he's from Virginia, but he doesn't seem like the kind of figure that can deliver a state in a presidential election. He's basically a mediocre governor, not hated but not beloved, and I just cannot imagine that an appreciable number of Virginians are going to be persuaded to vote Democratic just for the excitement of seeing a Virginian in the vice president's office. Take that away, and there is exactly zero reasons to pick Kaine.

Granted, the list of decent running mates is dwindling. This probably means we will see the most boring possible choice, a place holder who won't steal focus.

I'd much rather have Kaine than Bayh, another headline writer favorite. My understanding of his abortion views is that he's pro-life in the same way Kerry was -- that is, personally, but not politically. Am I wrong about that?

He speaks Spanish fluently and he has been mentioned on Al Giordano's blog The Field as a potential VP pick for some time.

"My understanding of his abortion views is that he's pro-life in the same way Kerry was -- that is, personally, but not politically. Am I wrong about that?"

You know, I think you are right. I must read articles more carefully in the future. Thanks!

For what it's worth, I was rather impressed by Kaine's comments on infrastructure at the Brookings Institution event last Friday. He had a very knowledgable grasp of the issues, and was sharp and articulate (not awkward at all). I don't know if he would so much complement Obama as reinforce the qualities which Obama already has--relative youth and policy competence. The only thing he really lacks which would be ideal to see on the ticket is international experience. I might still lean towards Biden at this point.

One advantage to Kaine is that the Dems don't lose much by taking him away from his office. His term expires in 2009, and he's not eligible for a second term. If you choose a senator or the governor of another state, there's the question of whether there's a risk of an R taking over that office. But Virginia will be a tossup in 2009 anyway.

Larry Sabato just posted a detailed rundown on the pros and cons of Kaine as VP, including some dark fallout for Democrats at the state level if he leaves mid-term. Worth reading.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008072901

Ok, here's Kaine on abortion:

I will reduce abortion in Virginia by enforcing current Virginia restrictions, passing an enforceable ban on partial-birth abortion, ensuring women's access to health care (including legal contraception), and promoting abstinence-focused education and adoption. We should reduce abortion in this manner, rather than by criminalizing women and doctors.

I don't particularly like the partial birth stuff or the abstinence stuff (at least he doesn't say abstinence only), but he doesn't seem to be on the side of banning abortion, anyway.

Kaine's record as VA governor has been one mainly of continuing the party-rebuilding begun by his predecessor, Mark Warner.

Warner and then-Lt. Gov. Kaine took office in 2002 facing a legislature with sizeable, predominantly hard-right GOP majorities. (Republicans controlled redistricting after 2000, and gerrymandered expertly.)
Warner and Kaine spent the decade chipping away at that majority. Last year, Democrats won control of the state Senate (21-19); Republicans still control the House of Delegates (55-45).

Warner's signal accomplishment was to persuade moderate Republicans to go along with tax increases for transportation. The GOP then ousted or forced retirements of most of the offending moderates, and have stonewalled Kaine on further transportation funding and other legislative initiatives. Transportation be the Dems' strongest issue, especially in traffic-clogged Northern VA and Hampton Roads (Norfolk area), in the 2009 election for governor and House of Delegates. (The GOP will try to make taxes the issue, with a side order of anti-immigration red meat.)

If Kaine were to be Obama's VP, he would be succeeded by current Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a very conservative Republican. VA governors appoint most state officials (only Gov., Lt. Gov. and Atty. Gen. are elected) and exercise broad control over state policy making. The governor's party also controls the election machinery.

A VP Kaine would rob his party of incumbency going into the 2009 election, although his state campaign machine presumably would remain in place. This is why VA Dems are ambivalent about his becoming Obama's running mate.

VA has a long history of electing governors of the national opposition party. During the Carter administration, it elected Republican John Dalton; under Reagan, Democrats Chuck Robb and Gerald Baliles; under Bush-41, Democrat Doug Wilder; under Clinton, Republicans George Allen and Jim Gilmore; under Bush-43, Democrats Warner and Kaine.

That historical model, however, may no longer apply because of the growth of Northern VA and the GOP's obstructionism on transportation and general lurch to the far right.

Let's hope the headline writers don't get Bayh either. Except to say "Bayh, Bayh" "Bayh out" or "Obama doesn't Bayh it."

I happily voted for Kaine, and he's pretty good for what is still a fairly conservative state. He's been less adept than Warner at getting the GOPers in the legislature on board, but they seem to be in obstructionist mode so I'm not sure what more he could do on that front.

However, one area where he has really infuriated me has been his support for building new coal plants in the state. This compares pretty poorly with Sebelius' steadfast efforts to prevent new coal plants in Kansas. So if you're going to pick a red state governor that has given an underwhelming SOTU response, I say go with Sebelius.

I have a purely linguistic objection:

"OBAMA/KAINE"

sounds like

"OBA-McCAIN".

Trivial, I know. But unfortunate nonetheless.

-- TP

Kaine is, at best, a functional speaker, not an orator for the history books. And nor is he a good looking dude who could put an attractive, fresh face on the party. He's a squat, squinty, pug-nosed fellow .....

I take my cue from raising kaine which knows the state better than any one posting here. They hate him. Thus goes my view. Incidentially, I donated to him and Webb based on RK and Not Larry Sabato mentioning both candidates. I haven't lived in Virginia in a long time, but I still care what happens there

Kaine is lame. How uninspiring, and unprogressive. Anti-choice, and an unimpressive speaker. I guess it seals Virginia, but other than that, I don't see it.

This may sound stupid, but I really appreciate that he's a guy focused on infrastructure.

I think one of the big legacies of Bush's presidency has been his disastrous lack of funding for basic infrastructure. So I'd appreciate that.

I've only seen Kaine on TV once and my gut impression was "likable, but not memorable."

I'd be fine with the choice, but I worry it'll piss off progressives and give people another excuse to claim Obama is somehow selling out the party or other such nonsense.

Let's face it, there aren't a lot of great choices, and everyone has a bug up their butts about each one of them (Sebellius is offensive to Hillary, Biden and Dodd are too old school Washington, etc)

Only makes sense if Team Obama thinks Catholics are the key to the general. Anyone know Kaine's stance on inquisitions?

...and I just cannot imagine that an appreciable number of Virginians are going to be persuaded to vote Democratic just for the excitement of seeing a Virginian in the vice president's office.

That's not the point. The point is that appreciable numbers of Virginians have already been persuaded to vote Democratic, because the state has been steadily trending blue for a long time. Hopefully all it needs is a slight nudge. Kaine may well give Obama a few extra points of the Virginia vote he wouldn't otherwise get, and hopefully, a few extra points is all he needs. I like this move a lot if indeed Kaine is Obama's choice. It tells me he's playing offense. Take away Virginia and McCain's goose really should be cooked. In this season of economic discontent, I like our chances of picking up Virginia (with Kaine on the ticket) a lot better than McCain's chances of taking Michigan (with Romney). This move also tells me Obama is continuing to run a smart campaign. He realizes, in other words, that the election will be decided, like most, on the issue of the economy, so he's wisely not overreacting to the alleged perception that he needs a foreign policy buff or war hero on the ticket. He doesn't, in my view. Also, I haven't followed the Virgina Senate race at all, but my gut instinct tells me that having the sitting governor on a national ticket should only increase the turnout of Democrats, and that will surely help Mark Warner.

Kaine isn't going to be VP.

Sebelius is Catholic too and helps the ticket a little everywhere and hurts it nowhere. A little everywhere is the smarter play then Virginia's 13 EVs. The big Fineman article on Kaine as VP cites his "outside the beltway" cred which says more about where inside the beltway types actually live (Northern Virginai) then what any reasonable person would consider distance from DC.

It's going to be Sebelius. Rock Chalk, Jayhawk!

I seem to be alone here, but I think Obama choosing, say, a Biden for VP says to America, "I'm weak on foreign policy and national security," which is not a message any smart campaign wants to produce. A Tim Kaine, or Kathleen Sebelius, or Brian Schweitzer makes more sense to me. It says that Obama is comfortable with his world-view.

Does anyone really want the president turning to the VP in times of crisis? Don't we want someone who is prepared already?

Just something to think about.

I have watched Tim carefully during his term. He has been notably unsuccessful in building the necessary coalition to pass a transportation bill. Beyond that, his insight into the unintended consequences of his actions are not particularly good. Even when he was elected he did not have enough pull to help to down ticket candidates. As mayor of the City of Richmond, he was in a weak mayor system. As a business person who must deal with the City, it retains the chaos that reigned when he was mayor. About the only thing he has going for him is that he is both a democrat and an energetic campaigner.

Sebelius is Catholic too and helps the ticket a little everywhere and hurts it nowhere. A little everywhere is the smarter play then Virginia's 13 EVs.

Don't be so sure adding a woman to the ticket of an African-American "helps the ticket a little everywhere." I wish it weren't the case, but I rather suspect the right white male (doesn't have to be Kaine, of course) is a near must for Obama.

I seem to be alone here, but I think Obama choosing, say, a Biden for VP says to America, "I'm weak on foreign policy and national security," which is not a message any smart campaign wants to produce.

Big Blue: I agree with you completely. If the ideal VP candidate happens to have substantial foreign policy expertise, then fine. But choosing a sub-optimal running mate (the human gaffe Joe Biden is about as sub-optimal as you can get in my view) solely to bolster his foreign policy bona fides would be too transparent. I honestly think Barack Obama is the most thoughtful presidential candidate when it comes to foreign policy I've witnessed in my life time. He doesn't need a Nunn or a Biden.

Ezra

I hear Kaine is travelling right now after cancelling his baseball plans.

This could be very bad.

If McCain picks Ridge I will vote for McCain after working for Obama for a year and a half now in NH.