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DEBATE LIVEBLOGGING.
10:37: Final statements. McCain says Obama is unready. Obama says his father came from Kenya and loved America and its values. That basically encapsulates the debate.
10:34: More Bill Schneider: "McCain almost certainly misspoke when he said he wouldn't speak with Spain…I am not sure that's a fair thing for Obama to call him on." Here's McCain's foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann: "The questioner asked several times about Senator McCain's willingness to meet Zapatero (and id'd him in the question so there is no doubt Senator McCain knew exactly to whom the question referred). Senator McCain refused to commit to a White House meeting with President Zapatero in this interview." I agree that McCain misspoke. But then his adviser turned his verbal slip into official policy. That's actually worse.
10:28: "McCain is saying that if you meet without preconditions you are legitimizing them. Obama, on the other hand, said he would not impose preconditions, but he would insist on preparation. It's a very complicated argument." That's some crack political analysis from Bill Schneider. You know he gets paid a lot of money to write things like that.
10:20: This is a pretty traditional debate performance for Obama. Strong on substance. Few mistakes. Little in the way of killer instinct or decapitating lines. McCain, by contrast, is offering an uncommonly strong performance powered, as far as I can tell, by his raging contempt for Obama. He won't look at him. He's using "what Senator Obama doesn't understand" the way Joe Biden uses "ladies and gentlemen." His constant refrain is the places he's visited, leaders he's befriended, aging advisers and presidents he's known. Obama is conveying the fact that he thinks McCain wrong. But McCain is conveying the fact that he thinks Obama an unprepared lightweight. One of these is a stronger claim than the other.
10:19: Rather than snarkliveblogging, or metaliveblogging, Think Progress is doing some real time fact-checking.
10:15: Obama is answering too many of McCain's charges. McCain is smirking too much. He looks a bit like Bush in 2004. But McCain just went frontally at Obama, calling his approach "dangerous" and mocking what negotiations with Iran would look like. Obama didn't even answer the assault. And his answer on this next question seems more halting and unsure. It's a tougher question -- Eastern Bloc -- but it looks to me like Obama just got thrown off his game.
10:00: Bracelet wars. McCain tells a story about his bracelet, from the mother of a soldier who said "don't let my son's death be in vain." Obama tells of his bracelet, from a mother of a soldier who said "don't let other mothers go through what I'm going through." Maybe jewelry is not the right way to understand geopolitics?
9:59: I'm finding this hard to evaluate. In 2004, Kerry smoked Bush. This year, they're pretty evenly matched. McCain is more mawkish and somber. Obama is more commanding and informed. But these aren't speeches, where there are running themes or interlaced talking points. It's actually a discussion. An exchange. If you wanted to vote for either guy, you're probably confirmed in your opinion. If you're undecided, both seem fairly convincing.
9:58: Long exchange on Pakistan, where McCain accuses Obama of recklessly threatening attack. Obama responds: "Coming from you John, who threatened North Korea with extinction and sings songs about bombing Iran..." Nicely done.
9:50: McCain just compared Petraeus to Bin Laden. Man. Even MoveOn doesn't go that far.
9:44: After a back-and-forth on whether the question with Iraq is whether we should have gone in or whether we should have surged, Obama hits it on the head: "John likes to pretend the war began in 2007." Interestingly, Obama is MUCH more compelling on national security and foreign policy than he was in the domestic portion. McCain is agitated and shifting and giving awkward, digressive, angry answers. Obama seems confident and fluent and in control of this part of the discussion.
9:37: Obama gets in a clean shot here. McCain voted for most all Bush's budgets. How can he say he's spent his career fighting to cut spending? McCain returns with a monologue about how the American people know him, and he's not understood to be "Mr. Congeniality" in the Senate. All fair enough. But how does the combination of his colleagues thinking him a jerk and his press person being good at booking him on tv change those budget votes? Sadly, Obama doesn't press the point.
9:35: Health care debate! Also: Obama has to stop letting McCain say he's "cutting spending." When you're cutting tax revenues by hundreds of billions and cutting spending, in theory, by a few billion, you're not doing the thing you're supposed to be doing when you "cut spending," which is bringing the budget into balance. Rather you worsening the budget. It's the same as increasing spending.
9:34: Obama is wearing a flag pin. McCain is not. WHY DOES JOHN MCCAIN HATE AMERICA?
9:21: Pretty substantive exchange on tax cuts, earmark spending, and social policy. Not sure either of them particularly broke through, but the basic shape of the argument is McCain is hitting his reformist credentials and Obama is saying that McCain gives tax cuts and credits to corporations. McCain, incidentally, is doing well, at least thus far. He's calm and controlled and sounds knowledgeable.
9:12: Obama mentions that McCain said "the fundamentals of the economy are strong." Lehrer admonishes: "Say it to him." Apparently all attacks must be phrased in the form of the second person. "I'm determined to get you two to talk to each other," says Lehrer. "It's like a junior high dance," mutters my friend.
9:08: Obama opens on the financial crisis. "I can't think of a more important moment for us to be addressing the nation." Offers his five principles for the bailout. Goes directly at McCain, calling this the result of eight years of Republican policies supported by George Bush and John McCain. Hard shot so early in the debate. McCain, for his part, emphasizes the bipartisanship of the moment and the gravity of the occasion. "We're not at the beginning of the end. We're at the end of the beginning." Leaves Obama out of it.
9:00: Watching this on HD. Can't really bear seeing Brian Williams this defined. Why didn't McCain's people bar HD cameras from the event? He's going to look undead.
8:55: Chris Matthews suggests that it would be hard for Obama to capture "the racist vote." Yep.
8:48: The "reporting" of "pre-debate spin" is an odd concept. Reporting is supposed to uncover true statements of fact. This sort of reporting asks people in the campaign to tell the "reporter" something that isn't true, so they can then tell the audience. But they all seem so excited about it! "Here's ace reporter Howard Fineman to repeat some lies he was told by people in the campaign. Lay them on us, Howard!"
COMMENTS (24)
He IS sick! OMG, President Palin, here we come...
Posted by: scythia | September 26, 2008 9:08 PM
McCain is feeding a cherished bit of conservative magical thinking: if only the waste could be cut out of the budget, we could still have all the important stuff without paying hardly any taxes. This is for his base and economics-ignorant leaners.
I really wish Obama had a way to smack him back more directly about the earmark stuff. McCain got away with calling him a tax & spend liberal, and more importantly, one of those non-mavericky, Washington-insider senators, with no consequence.
Posted by: piminnowcheez | September 26, 2008 9:29 PM
The "reporting" of "pre-debate spin" is an odd concept.
No odder than the unironic use of the spin room.
Posted by: Aaron S. Veenstra | September 26, 2008 9:33 PM
Um, did John McCain just say that he opposed Bush about torture? Is that really what he just said?
Posted by: piminnowcheez | September 26, 2008 9:41 PM
Um, did John McCain just say that he opposed Bush about torture? Is that really what he just said?
McCain is stealing left-wing talking points and crafting them into his own.
And Obama is letting him get away with. He's getting baited into bad arguments, floundering, then letting McCain change the topic.
What the fuck is going on???
Posted by: scythia | September 26, 2008 9:45 PM
McCain is winning.
Fuck.
Posted by: sangfroid826 | September 26, 2008 10:03 PM
McCain is winning because he's lying, and people don't seem to mind being lied to, or they're too ignorant and ill-informed to recognize a bald-faced lie. Something.
It's making my stomach churn, though. I realize Obama can't be seen as beating up on McCain, but hell, I wish he would call McCain out on all these lies. The torture one, for example. HUGE lie. The definition of wealth one. So many, I can't keep track.
Also, McCain does that smug-smiling thing when he lies--a classic tell.
Posted by: litbrit | September 26, 2008 10:16 PM
You think so? I don't know, I think Obama's held his own. He got hit with McCain mocking his meeting with Iran, but I don't see McCain as winning. It's pretty even in my opinion.
Posted by: Matt | September 26, 2008 10:20 PM
I realize Obama can't be seen as beating up on McCain
Why? I vote for HULK SMASH. Strength, son.
I don't see McCain as winning. It's pretty even in my opinion.
That is a win.
Posted by: scythia | September 26, 2008 10:26 PM
McCain is winning because this debate appears to be all about foreign issues. It is quite clear McCain has more experience. The "I know X" line seems to be working to do this. His smartest move was to quickly end any health care discussion (i.e. by not bringing up the facts) and remained uncontentious on the economy.
I can't wait to see how huffington post spins this though.
Posted by: gordon gekko | September 26, 2008 10:31 PM
Agree strongly with 10:20 btw. Obama should just stare him down. Fuck the optics; imagine the flinches! (okay, not really)
Please please please hit on the Iraqi PM support of timetables...
Posted by: scythia | September 26, 2008 10:32 PM
Liberals tend to judge political debates on 'what Joe Sixpack would think,' rather than 'what I think.' This person who liberals imagine watching the debate is David Brooks' White American Everyman. It bears repeating that this person doesn't fucking exist, and, even if he does, he is not the only fucking person voting in this election.
-- ACS
Posted by: ACS | September 26, 2008 10:40 PM
post debate: I watched on CSPAN (free from taint from 'commentators').
BTW: I'm a fervent Obama supporter.
Obama LOST hugely tonight. Defensive, halting, can't look at McCain directly, praises his opponent more than attacks him, wishy washy positions.
Obama is a great orator and a wise thinker. He's not a Oxford Union debater for sure, and he'd lose a street debate, not to mention a street thug attack.
McCain did the best I've seen from him. Attacked, attacked, attacked. Doesn't matter if he lied or told small-percentage truths. He was emotional and firm.
McCain 80%, Obama 20%.
A disgraceful performance by Obama. He didn't bleed on the floor, but his guts were left behind in the green room.
How could he not know that the Republicans will always attack with the visceral appeal?
Another one of these, and McCain wins the electoral college in a not-close election.
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | September 26, 2008 10:50 PM
If you wanted to vote for either guy, you're probably confirmed in your opinion. If you're undecided, both seem fairly convincing.
I dunno. I think Obama did the better debate job. My wife, who might be a better indicator of where swing voters will go, was much more impressed with Obama's performance, and worried that McCain wouldn't look directly at Obama, and that McCain looked old. She doesn't really like either of them (she's not big into politics), but she dislikes McCain more.
I think, on the whole, the debate should have redounded to Obama. But, and interesting thing: Ezra says Kerry smoked Bush in 2004. I didn't think so, I thought Kerry held his own but Bush did the better job. But I was excited about Bush at the time. I'm not remotely excited about McCain, and I'm feeling like Obama, on the whole, did a better job of debating. He was generally clear and coherent and seemed much less abrasive and confrontational than McCain.
Not that full on attacks are bad, but I'm not sure how good McCain does them on the delivery.
I could predict more of McCain's lines than Obama's. I knew the minute he started angling to attack Obama on meeting with Ahmadinejad. Obvious steering.
Dunno. I think Obama won this one by a nose, myself.
Posted by: Kevin S. Willis | September 26, 2008 10:50 PM
Over and over, Obama said, I agree with McCain. McCain never said, I agree with Obama. He said, Obama is a fool who can't be trusted. Obama gave undecideds permission to vote for McCain and didn't give them a reason not to. McCain didn't win this debate - Obama surrendered it. I just don't understand Democrats.
Posted by: Bloix | September 26, 2008 10:51 PM
bloix, you sound just like all the people going through paroxysms of despair just a couple of weeks ago: didn't you learn something from that?
this is who obama is: he's not a street fighter and he doesn't try to be.
he had some moments, mccain had some moments: it's hard to see why anyone changed their minds tonight, and i doubt many did.
PS. kevin s willis, by and large both the pundits and the polls showed that kerry beat bush in the debates, which suggests, to me, that "winning" the debates is overrated anyhow.
Posted by: howard | September 26, 2008 11:02 PM
Christ. All you Chicken Littles. Especially you, Portland, and your hypothetical low-information David Brooks Joe Sixpack.
First, McCain's dishonesty has hurt him in the polls. His favorables, his "do you trust" numbers, and both his nationwide and statewide poll numbers all took a hit when he started lying all the time.
Second, this unexciting, low-intensity, low-negativity strategy is exactly how Obama got to where he is. Plugging away, slowly rising in the polls, never doing anything particularly game-changing or out of the ordinary. He won an election against a pre-coronated candidate this way.
Tell me: do you remember any moment where Obama just ran away with the ball and made a seventy-yard touchdown? Can anyone think of a single instance of that happening? Can we both agree that the guy has actually won elections in the past, and agree that this strategy is exactly how he won them
-- ACS
Posted by: ACS | September 26, 2008 11:22 PM
Reading through these, I think Ezra and I watched two different debates.
All this hand-wringing is beyond annoying. Obama held his own, and then some, in this debate. Yeah, McCain's people were trying to lower expectations. But once the debate started, none of that mattered.
What the nation saw was a supposedly mega-experienced 5-term Senator McCain who had trouble keeping up with a smarter, more composed Senator Obama.
This was the foreign policy debate. It was supposed to be McCain's strength. And Obama came across a the stronger of the two.
Obama doesn't need to deliver a knock-out blow in every public appearance. If he keeps up these kinds of performances, it's going to be a double-digit win in November.
Posted by: PapaJijo | September 26, 2008 11:24 PM
I thought McCain won the first half hour, only because he lied and lied and, as Dear Husband pointed out, it doesn't matter that Deborah knows they're lies--it matters that Mr. and Mrs. Joe Blow Undecided in Smalltown USA hear the bullshit and don't know enough to realize it IS bullshit, so it seems like McCain is saying all the right things.
Then Obama came back nicely, and I think it was pretty even in terms of who threw punches, if you count lying as an okay answer. If you adjust for the bullshit and outright lies and count only landed punches--i.e., truthful criticisms and points, well, Obama won this by a mile.
I think he has verbally expressed his agreement with McCain for the last time, though. His prep team are going to have a nice chat with him about that, mark my word. I know, I know, Obama cannot be seen as beating up on McCain, but hell, enough with the show of respect to a lying scumbag who won't even look you in the eye.
Next time, I want to see Obama go medieval on that lying sack of maverickiness.
Posted by: litbrit | September 26, 2008 11:37 PM
McCain came off as Grumpy Grampa. Obama came off as calm, intelligent, and organized. That's a win for Obama.
One fact often missed by partisans is that both of these men have positive favorability ratings from the American public. Most people like both of them. McCain's disdain toward Obama -- refusing to even look at him, smiling angrily while listening to his answers -- is distancing from many voters, because they don't share that disdain for Obama. Obama, meanwhile, treated McCain with personal respect, while disagreeing with him crisply and clearly on the issues. That's much closer to where most voters live.
Posted by: TKD | September 26, 2008 11:45 PM
I think people are expecting it to be more Bush style debates where you wind up completely hating one of the participants. McCain isn't like that. He's going to come off more favorably than Bush did, because Bush was the epitome of all that is evil in this world. McCain is a well-meaning person who is just completely off-base about completely everything because of some weird personality quirks of his.
Obama definitely held his own. McCain got some good shots, Obama got some good shots. This debate won't move the polls at all on its own.
One line I wish Obama had said: When McCain was talking about "accountability in government", I really wish Obama had said "I want accountability in government, too. We had some accountability in 2006 when the Republicans lost the house. In the wake of the financial crisis caused by Republican policies, I think it's time for some more accountability, when the Republicans lose the White House."
Posted by: spike | September 26, 2008 11:55 PM
McCain's disdain toward Obama -- refusing to even look at him, smiling angrily while listening to his answers -- is distancing from many voters, because they don't share that disdain for Obama. Obama, meanwhile, treated McCain with personal respect, while disagreeing with him crisply and clearly on the issues. That's much closer to where most voters live.
I think that's exactly right. I don't have the sort of disdain for Obama that most of my fellow right-wingers have, and it gets old from the right-wing pundits, and it makes Obama appear to be the better person in forums like these. One of the reasons I think McCain came across better than Obama at Saddleback (although I have great respect Obama for going there, and that wins him points with me right there) is that there wasn't that immediate contrast between McCain's contempt for Obama, and Obama's effort to engage in a productive debate.
Here, it was clear. Obama came across better.
He's going to come off more favorably than Bush did, because Bush was the epitome of all that is evil in this world.
Maybe that's why I felt like Bush really won the debates with Kerry (punditry aside). My lifelong affinity for evil. ;)
Posted by: Kevin S. Willis | September 27, 2008 12:28 AM
Obama could rip out McCain's heart and eat it in front of him and Ezra would wish he was attacking him more. When Obama wins with more than 300 EVs, Ezra will complain that, if only Obama had listened to him, he could have won all of them.
Posted by: tomemos | September 27, 2008 12:30 AM
I agree that it's a stronger claim to make that someone is a lightweight.
It's also an easier claim for viewers to measure.
Did Obama come across as a lightweight tonight? I didn't think so. Admittedly I'm a supporter. But I doubt many viewers came away with that idea either.
Posted by: ryan | September 27, 2008 1:52 AM