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Momma said wonk you out

WHAT THE BILL WON'T DO.

Jamie Galbraith spoke before the House Democratic Caucus yesterday, and The Prospect has published the notes from his remarks. I'd suggest reading the whole thing, but the portion I want to focus on comes near the end:

[N]either this program nor my FDIC proposal will prove sufficient to restore economic growth and high employment. For that purpose, resolution of the underlying housing problem, of the revenue problem of state and local governments, and of the wealth and income problems of retirees and other asset-dependent parts of the population are all essential. Those measures lie ahead; they will not be part of this bill.

However, the fate of this program will depend on the willingness of Congress to solve these problems at a later date. If the economy is allowed to stagnate, foreclosures will multiply and the financial system will continue to implode. Only a comprehensive approach to deal with the deeper issues of jobs, wages, pensions, and housing can generate the income streams necessary to make the mortgage burdens sustainable over time...Given the choice between approving or defeating the bill as it stands, I would urge supporting the bill. I do so without illusions. There need be no pretense that it will solve our underlying financial and economic problems. It will not. The purpose, in my view, is to get the financial system and the economy through the year, and into the hands of the next administration. That is a limited purpose, but a legitimate purpose. And it may be the most that can be accomplished for the time being.

To put it slightly differently, there are a lot of different economic problems in play right now. One is that we have a bad economy, with rising unemployment, stagnating wages, anemic demand, weak consumer confidence, and broad housing insecurity. Another is that we are having a crisis in our financial sector. If our financial sector collapses, these is some possibility (no one has been quite clear on how large this possibility is) that our credit markets will seize up and our bad economy will become a nightmare economy. That can't be allowed to happen. But even if the financial sector is saved, the economy is still weak, and will require significant attention -- probably in the form of a large and well-targeted stimulus. That will, in all likelihood, be the next president's job. Hopefully, that will be the entirety of his job. The aim for Congress right now is to increase the likelihood that the next president faces a troubled economy with traditional afflictions rather than an economic catastrophe driven by a complex collapse in credit.



COMMENTS

If the bill is only to get us through to the next administration, then there's absolutely no reason for the amount to be as high as $700 billion. Cut it down to $150 billion or whatever's needed to tide us over until a better solution can be put in place under a new president and without the intense political game playing of the pre-election period.

These problems will be exacerbated if Democrats win the election and push through steep tax increases.

I think one of the unspoken realities here is not that there isn't enough money to make houses affordable and for people to prosper. Rather, the truth is that 20 percent of the population controls 84 percent of the wealth in the country; with the top 1 percent controlling about a third. This means that 80 percent of us are struggling for the remaining 16 percent. Or to put it another way when I explain things to students:

Imagine 100 dollars in a room with 100 people. We are all there to take our share of the 100 dollars. The first person gets up and takes 33 dollars. The next nineteen people people get up and split 53 dollars. The rest of us grab for the remaining
16 dollars.
Nothing will ever change until that changes; the rest is smoke and mirrors.

Sorry, should read: the next 19 people get up to take 51 dollars. my typing blows.

bokun59,

That's only a problem if one is only measuring a society by how egalitarian it is as a socialist or communist would.

Variables that you aren't considering is how mobile is our society? Can one improve his lot through his own efforts? Compared to other societies, are our poor hungry or doing without shelter and medical attention? Is that 16 dollars split between the rest of us better than 80 dollars in Algeria?

If everyone equally controlled the wealth, where would pooled capital come from? How would this affect the economy?

El,

I don't think society has to make it so we all get the same amount; all it has to do is limit the top. Let's suppose that we had a national ceiling of 1 million dollars in income per person. Can anyone seriously argue that s/he cannot live on 1 million dollars a year anywhere in the United States?
If one does, one is arguing for greed- not need. I am no economist, but I suspect that much money would be freed up to trickle down, as the Republicans like to say, to the rest of us. Comparing our society to another society misses the point. The fact that our lifestyle is better than others does not mean it is any fairer within its own borders. If one doesn't see the economic problem inherent in one person controlling a third of the populace's wealth while the rest struggle, then we can never change.

Anyone who argues "fairness" while depriving one class of it's earnings/holdings for the explicit intent to transfer to another class scares the hell out of me. While you now say 1 million, others may decide 200,000 or even less.

Welcome, Comrade.

Yeah, sharing is scary isn't it? It is certainly immoral to share and goes against every major religion's tenets. I mean, every major religion advocates greed as the number one priority in one's life. Don't we all remember the saying of Christ that it would be easier for a rich person to go to heaven than a poor person? I really don't know of a single person who could live on a million dollars a year. Heck, I am certain that it is way more important that Carly Fiorina get over 40 million to say good-bye than some teacher gets more money. What do teacher's do anyway. And Carly EARNED her money.

I guess you changed my mind- it is scarier that all people live well than one person living beyond any concept of well.

My bad.

El V wrote, If everyone equally controlled the wealth, where would pooled capital come from? How would this affect the economy?

Marriner S. Eccles, FDR’s Fed Chairman, wrote:
As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth -- not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced -- to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nation's economic machinery.

Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.

Our economy needs capital formations to provide the kind of investments that help fuel growth. What appears to be happening now is too much capital formation. Investors had access to so much cheap money, that excessive risk was not only tolerated, but sought out. Also, if capital formation was taken to the extreme and all workers labored for free, then 70% of our economy (consumerism) would disappear. That can't be good either. It is likely that the ideal case lies somewhere between “everyone equally controlling productive wealth” and slavery. I think we are free to have our own opinions about exactly where this point lies, but the lessons from the 30's and today seem to indicate that the current distribution of wealth is not good for the economy.

oops, I messed up the italics. MSE also wrote the paragraph starting with Instead of achieving as well.

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Ezra Klein is an associate editor at The American Prospect. An archive of his articles for The American Prospect can be found here.

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