ASSUME.
As a follow-up to the post below, I want to hold this claim of Doug Holtz-Eakin's up for a bit of scrutiny:
Mr. Holtz-Eakin said the plan is accurately described as budget neutral because it assumes enough savings in Medicare and Medicaid spending to make up the difference. He said the savings would come from eliminating Medicare fraud and by reforming payment policies to lower the overall cost of care.Italics mine. There's an old joke about the nasty tendency of economists to float off into realms totally divorced from the constraints of the real world. The joke has a lot of versions, but it goes something like this:
A physicist, a chemist and an economist are stranded on an island, with nothing to eat. A can of soup washes ashore. The physicist says, "Lets smash the can open with a rock." The chemist says, "Lets build a fire and heat the can first." The economist says, "Lets assume that we have a can-opener..."Holtz-Eakin is assuming more than a can opener. He is assuming a different political system, 75 Republican votes in the US Senate, 300 in the House, and an electorate with entirely different demographics and political opinions than the one we have. Indeed, the McCain campaign knows this full well, because their hope for victory is reliant on an electorate where seniors are wildly overrepresented and uniquely well-organized. If their vision of the electorate is sound, Medicare is untouchable. If it's not sound, McCain loses by 15 points. If it's not quite sound enough, McCain loses by four points and Medicare is still untouchable (which is probably what we'll see).
I'd like to say Doug Holtz-Eakin, an economist who used to have a very good reputation, is being good-natured and silly about the oddities of his profession here, but actually he's probably just lying about what McCain plans to do because he's scared of being called out on the huge tax hikes that are built into the proposal.
Image used under a CC license from Papalars..
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COMMENTS (17)
This sentence is a bit confusing, "Indeed, one of McCain's early legislative accomplishments was overturning the Medicare Catastrophic Benefit because it was insufficiently and generous and needed to be paid for up front."
Posted by: Stephen | October 6, 2008 4:10 PM
The guy whose reputation is taking the biggest hit from this campaign is McCain himself, of course. But Holtz-Eakin is finishing a strong second in this category. He used to be a respected economist, trusted by people on both sides; now he's a cheap political rent-a-hack.
Hope he got paid enough to make it worth his while.
Posted by: low-tech cyclist | October 6, 2008 4:24 PM
Ha. See my comment on the post below.
I'll just add that you never made similar points on the Wyden plan's "assumptions," but rather touted that it was budget neutral by 2014.
Posted by: wisewon | October 6, 2008 4:36 PM
So it works like this:
Senator Wyden proposes a health care plan and calls it revenue neutral based on a ridiculous and unrealistic assumption, Ezra says "Brilliant! This plan looks great!".
John McCain proposes a health care plan and calls it revenue neutral based on a ridiculous and unrealistic assumption, Ezra says "Shenanigans! Liars! Frauds!"
Why should one take anything you say about health policy seriously anymore?
Posted by: AB | October 6, 2008 4:50 PM
PS A pretty interesting Marist poll on health care today, with some surprising results:
http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/usapolls/HC081006.HTML
http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/usapolls/HI081006.htm
Posted by: wisewon | October 6, 2008 4:51 PM
While it is unlikely that McCain's plan is budget neutral, you are unfairly ignoring the point that focusing on lowering costs (instead of merely increasing the number of insured) can actually increase the amount of money available for the latter goal.
Posted by: someone | October 6, 2008 5:49 PM
Medicare, Medicaid, and the rest of the welfare state will be cut to shreds when the pols finally acknowledge that this country is bankrupt.
Social Security too will get hit and hit hard, so seniors better make sure they have a reliable can opener so that they can dine on cat food.
Posted by: Anonymous | October 6, 2008 6:15 PM
I've always heard the "assume a can opener" line applied to mathematicians, although I suppose it works for economists too.
Posted by: Julian Elson | October 6, 2008 9:33 PM
soon to be retirees are the only ones who think that SS will still exist. gen xyz have all realized that it wont exist by the time they get there.
Those people who put their retirement into 401ks were idiots. You never invest what you cant afford to lose. Unless of course your convinced to by sham investment banks like lehman bros.
Now we just spent 700billion so the latest crop of CEOs can bail without any pain. We
re still going to see the same major recession we were going to see before. But now we, each and every one of us, owes $2000 more to the chinese.
Nice.
Posted by: david b | October 6, 2008 9:52 PM
Just to update that joke - the physicist says smash it; the chemist says heat and explode it; the economist says assume a can opener; and then the sociologist picks up the can, pulls off the pop top that soup cans have now and eats the soup.
Posted by: Michael A. Shea | October 6, 2008 9:54 PM
Canned soup is icky.
Posted by: Herschel | October 6, 2008 11:47 PM
Herschel
You will soon have the opportunity to acquire a taste for it.
Posted by: Hank Paulson | October 7, 2008 5:03 AM
Speaking of poor job and conflicts of interest. The man at Fannie Mae who was creating the bad loan packages was none other then Barney Franks gay lover and live in Fannie boy.
Unqualified home buyers were not the only ones who benefitted from Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank’s efforts to deregulate Fannie Mae throughout the 1990s.
So did Frank’s gay lover, a Fannie Mae executive at the forefront of the agency’s push to relax lending restrictions.
Now that Fannie Mae is at the epicenter of a financial meltdown that threatens the U.S. economy, some are raising new questions about Frank’s relationship with Herb Moses, who was Fannie’s assistant director for product initiatives. Moses worked at the government-sponsored enterprise from 1991 to 1998, while Frank was on the House Banking Committee, which had jurisdiction over Fannie. …
The two lived together in a Washington home until they broke up in 1998, a few months after Moses ended his seven-year tenure at Fannie Mae, where he was the assistant director of product initiatives. According to National Mortgage News, Moses “helped develop many of Fannie Mae’s affordable housing and home improvement lending programs.”
Critics say such programs led to the mortgage meltdown that prompted last month’s government takeover of Fannie Mae and its financial cousin, Freddie Mac. The giant firms are blamed for spreading bad mortgages throughout the private financial sector.
-----------------------
Why are Barney Franks gay lovers allways in such legal messes?
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Posted by: timothy moriarty | October 7, 2008 6:40 AM
Economists' nasty tendency to make assumptions? Nasty? Surely you mean lazy, careless, slipshod, . . . or possibly even forthright, honest, or commendable. . . .
After all, empiricists have to make assumptions -- the world's too complicated to do otherwise. At least economists say so.
I'm almost tempted to take back the nice things I said about you yesterday.
Posted by: Stuart Eugene Thiel | October 7, 2008 11:42 AM
But read Ruth Marcus in today's Washington Post - she writes that most people will see a wonderful reduction in taxes under McCain's plan, without ever wondering where the money is going to come from. For Marcus, the line should be, "Assume we have an extra $1.3 trillion."
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