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PENNSYLVANIA GOES FOR OBAMA. ALSO, EXIT POLLS THAT DEFINITELY LOOK WRONG.
MSNBC just called Pennsylvania for Obama -- which is to say, they called it as soon as the polls closed, at 8pm, suggesting the final exit polls were insanely lopsided. My understanding is that that basically ends the night for McCain. Meanwhile, I'm just going to post these crazy exit polls I got. But I'm putting them under the fold, because they're probably completely wrong. Before reading, I'd suggest people recall how they felt in 2004 after reading the exits.
Obama's estimated margin comes first:
Florida: 52-44
Georgia: 47-51
Michigan: 60-39
Minnesota: 60-39
Pennsylvania: 57-42
Virginia: 55-45
Wisoconsin: 58 42
Ohio: 54-45
North Carolina: 52-48
Indiana: 52-48
Missouri: 52-48
Nevada: 55-45
New Mexico: 56-43
I've seen a few sets, but this one looks like basically all the others. so here it is. The margins are almost certainly wildly inflated, but this is what's flitting around e-mail inboxes in Washington, and it's informing the television commentary.
COMMENTS (6)
Damn you, Ezra! Spoilers!!!
Posted by: chrismealy | November 4, 2008 8:11 PM
I'm sure it's Erick Erickson's "Operation Chaos". Just imagine those seething hordes of RedStaters throwing off the exit polls. And what if they managed to recruit the PUMA millions into their campaign of disinformation?!
Posted by: charles | November 4, 2008 8:30 PM
Well, exit polls always are biased in favor of Democrats. The margins will be a little smaller than this.
Posted by: Asher | November 4, 2008 8:35 PM
Wait..what? I'm sorry I was distracted by CNN's holographic reports.
Posted by: Adrock | November 4, 2008 8:41 PM
As not-truly random samples, exit polls are prone to bias and, as clustered samples, the leeway is roughly 1 1/2 times bigger than an equivalent individually random sample poll.
So they are not expected to be "right" in the sense of being accurate predictors of results.
Posted by: BruceMcF | November 4, 2008 8:41 PM
The Arizona poll just dropped and McCain's only up by a point. 16 points in Michigan. I'm thinking these are just some crazily skewed polls. 538 did a post earlier today about how exit polls skew to Democrats.
Posted by: Asher | November 4, 2008 9:05 PM