i'm too lazy to do the electoral count, but i say Obama wins every single toss-up state EXCEPT Ohio. i think they have a special kind of homespun, i-still-wish-it-was-the-50s
kind of racism and/or aversion to all things new that will keep the state in McCain's column.

i'm almost inclined to say they aren't "real America", but only an a-hole would say that about any part of the United States.

I won't make any predictions about Congressional races, but I do think that the presidential will look something like this:

Obama: 52-54% of popular vote, with a 6-7 million vote lead and 338 electoral votes to McCain's 200.

311 Electoral votes for Obama
57 seats in the Senate
A pick up of 25 seats in the house.

Electoral College Obama = 326 McCain = 212
Popular Vote = Obama 52% McCain 47% Other = .5%
Senate = DEMS +8
House = DEMS +27

I waited in line for 45 minutes at 6 a.m. today to vote. In Connecticut. It was the first time I've ever waited to vote (and a guy in line said it was his first time seeing a line in 30 years of voting). And everyone just seemed happy to be there.

this post over at Atrios' is consistant with your theory:

http://www.eschatonblog.com/2008_11_02_archive.html#8698052315105108945

Lines

Around the block here in New York. Longer than I've ever seen. At 6:15 AM. And none of our votes really matter. Heckuva job, Bushie.

-Jay Ackroyd 06:50

You grossly underestimate how much pop. vote is connected to the Electoral College.

51.8% Obama
364 EVs Obama
+8 DEM Senate
+26 DEM House

I've been doing this over here since yesterday. I'm more optimistic than Kos, which is a problem, but I think we run the table, taking everything in play. 397 EVs in all.

Okay, I'll play:

Obama over McCain 54 to 44%
Dems get 57 senate seats and pick up 29 house seats.

Oh, whoops:

..and Obama gets 364 EV's

-Obama wins, 51-46% in the popular vote, and 352-146 in the Electoral College. Bob Barr & Ralph Nader each get less than 2%.
-Dems gain 6 Senate seats; Al Franken is one of them despite earning less than 45% of the vote.
-Dems gain 25 House seats

With or without the use of "Price is Right" rules, I'm going to aim big.

President:

Obama, 53 percent of the popular vote. 396 Electoral votes, including very close but ultimately successful victories in Indiana, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, and North Carolina.

House:

Add in another 25 House seats. I'm not really sure where, but I have this feeling that there will be a strong anti-incumbent sentiment working against Republicans, even the ones in open seats.

Senate:

Something tells me we are going to fall just short of the magic number of 60. We're going to win Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Oregon in a walk. We're also going to do well in North Carolina, Alaska, and Minnesota. If we get lucky, we'll win both Kentucky and Georgia, even if it's in a run-off election in a few weeks, but I expect us to win at least one of them. Perhaps Mississippi is in the mix, too, but a lot of things would need to go wrong for the Republicans for that to happen at this point. But man, would I love, love, love to be wrong here. As for a specific number, I'm going to go with 57.

Popular: Obama 53%, McCain 45%, Other 2%

EC: Obama 338, McCain 200

Senate: Dems 58 (including Lieberman and Sanders)

House: Dems +31 over current.

Obama: 53% popular vote, 350 electoral votes.
Senate: plus 6 democratic seats
House: plus 28 democratic seats

Obama: 362
Senate: +8
House: +31

The long lines tell me that it'll be a landslide for Obama, and that means that more people will pull the lever for Democratic house aspirants.

"In California, a tactical voter might vote, depending on mood and convenience and schedule, because it's vanishingly unlikely their vote will matter." For president, maybe, but the ballot is longer than one line. A lot of people will show up to vote against (or more likely for) Proposition 8 in California.

54-46
317-221
+8 Senate Seats
+29 House Seats

Obama by 5 - 52-47. Dems get to 58 Senate seats (counting Sanders and Lieberman). Dems add 31 in the House.

oh, and 329 EVs.

EV: Obama 355, McCain 183
(headlines, Obama takes VA, NC, IN, GA, OH, ND - loses FL, MO)

Popular vote: ooooh, Obama 52%, McCain: 47%.

Obama gets 53% of the popular vote, and 338 electoral votes.

Dems end up with 57 Senate seats (counting Lieberman and Sanders)

Dems add 28 seats in the House

%: 53-46-1 (Obama-McCain-Other)
EV: 352-186
Senate: 59-41
House: 257-178

Obama 54%, McCain 44%
Obama 364, McCain 174
Senate: Dems +9
House: Dems +32

Obama 354, McCain 184
Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Senate D+8
House D+28

Obama 54%, McCain 44%
Obama 364, McCain 174
Senate: Dems +9
House: Dems +32

i'm too lazy to do the electoral count, but i say Obama wins every single toss-up state EXCEPT Ohio. i think they have a special kind of homespun, i-still-wish-it-was-the-50s
kind of racism and/or aversion to all things new that will keep the state in McCain's column.

We also have a special kind of homespun, "our church was a stop on the underground railroad" old-school Republican anti-racism ... Ohio is one reason why Republicans needed to put their racism in dog-whistle form, to pull the racists into their base without driving away the anti-racists.

I don't think McCain/Palin kept the frequency high enough this time around ... in their desperation to hold onto the racist part of their base acquired over the past forty years, they've gone a bit too far for the some of their original 1950's type Ohio Republicans.

Plus, in the economy, Obama looks more likely to bring back a 1950's economy of making stuff that does stuff than McCain does ... Obama came off in the economic crisis as a safe center fielder, while McCain came off looking like errors waiting to happen.

It'll be close, and may not swing to Obama until the early voting paper ballots in the rural counties come in late, but short odds are Obama wins Ohio today.

Electoral: Obama 353, McCain 185
Popular: Obama 76,150,291; McCain 63,450,910 That works out Obama 53.5, McCain 45.

Senate: Dems hold everything, gain VA, NM, AK, CO, NH, NC, OR, but not MN or any of the Southern seats. Martin makes it to a runoff.

House gain: Dems plus 26.

Prop 8 fails by about 4 points.

Oops. Forgot the popular vote. We have to nail it exactly to get your book? Oh-kay. Obama will get 65,231,077 votes, or 54.14874%.

I think you're overestimating the extent to which people are going to come out and vote for Obama because they want to participate in this historic moment. I think thats absolutely true for African-Americans, for many young people, and many well-educated people. But I think there's a substantial portion of the Democratic base who aren't thrilled about Obama, they're just SICK of the republicans. I doubt this crowd makes the extra effort to turnout in Cali, Mass, NY, etc. The one possibility is if they really want to make sure their vote is cast as a final repudiation of the Bush administration - but I don't think negative motivations are quite as powerful as positive ones when it comes to voting in states where Obama will win comfortably by double digits.

As for my election predictions:

Obama 53%
McCain 45%
EC - Obama 353 to McCain 185

Senate - 7 seats flip, which is only good because it means the Dems don't need to suck up to Lieberman to keep 60 and they give that jerkoff the boot

House - 27 seats flip

One more thing. I sincerely doubt there's any chance of this happening, but how funny would it be if McCain lost Arizona? After the campaign that he's run, I don't just want to see him lose...I want to see him embarrassed and feeling completely and utterly rejected.

EV: Obama 380
Pop: Obama 71,325,963/McCain 57,023,178
Senate: Dems +10
House: Dems +45

I think tomorrow Republicans are going to be saying "holy shit, I can't believe it."

I'm just aping Sam Wang.

Pop Vote:
BO: 53%, JM 46%

EV
BO: 352, JM: 186

Senate
56 DEM, 42 REP, 2 IND

House
257 DEM, 178 REP

"i doubt this crowd makes the extra effort to turn out in cali..."

are you out here in california?

a HUGE number of californians are incredibly enthusiastic about barack obama and the historical implications of this election.

CALIFORNIA IS FIRED UP AND READY TO VOTE!!!!!!!!

Electoral: Obama takes everything that's tossup except Montana and North Dakota and a surprise victory due to turnout surge in Georgia brings him up to 390; McCain 148.

Popular: 53%-45.5%

Senate: Dems +9, to 60 with Lieberman and Sanders; we win Georgia and Minnesota but lose Mississippi and Kentucky.

House: Dems +31

54%-45%
381-157

58-42 Senate
+35 in the House

"In Ohio, a tactical voter always votes, because her vote could always matter. In California, a tactical voter might vote, depending on mood and convenience and schedule, because it's vanishingly unlikely their vote will matter."

I guess that you forgot that there are more items on the ballot in Ohio and California than just the presidential election. People in every state are selecting members of Congress, some are choosing Senators or Governors, some states have ballot issues.
I hope Californians (and others) are not stupid enough to think their vote doesn't count because folks like you can't think of anything but the presidential campaign.
Low voter turnout is how GOP stooges took over many state legislatures, because so many Americans only think about voting when it comes to the presidential election.
Hopefully, some of the new/lapsed voters standing in line today will remember to get to their polling place for the next school board, town council, legislative race. Every vote does count.

No -- but many of us used the Presidential vote as a signalling device (I used to pick whatever lunatic leftist was on the ballot, to make a point). But I do think Ezra is wrong, because I think the rational version of that behavior ended with FL2K. I'm not really a Democrat, but until the GOP that pulled that one is burned to the ground, I'm voting a straight ticket.

On predictions, I just don't care about the Electoral College, most especially after FL2K. Popular vote, 50-46.

Obama: 52%, 359 EV's.
McCain: 45%, 179 EV's.

Senate: 59 Democrats (including Sanders/Lieberman), 41 Republicans.

House: 260 Democrats, 175 Republicans.

Popular vote:

Obama 54.1%
McCain 44.7%

Electoral College:

Obama 397
McCain 141

Senate Pick-ups:

Democrats +9

House of Representatives:

Democrats +31

Well, honestly, there are too many question marks for me to predict the Senate, and too many races for me to get a handle on the House.

But I'm going to go with Obama 53%, McCain 45%, and Other 2%. As for the electoral college, I think Obama will prevail with 321 electoral votes (losing Florida, but getting Ohio, Missouri, either Montana or ND, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and North Dakota), leaving McCain with the other 217.

Florida is the big question mark in my mind - it's increasingly liberal, particularly with growing populations in Tampa and West Palm Beach (and everything south of that), but there's an awful lot of Republican machinery used to monkeying with elections down there.

EV: 338-200
Pop. vote: 52-47
Senate: +8
House: +28

Popular Vote: Obama 52.4%, McCain 46.8%, other .8%.

Electoral Vote: Obama 311, McCain 227.

Senate: Dems +8

House: Dems +26

Nice. It's about time a completely unhealthy addiction to blog reading paid off. Boring book about health care, here I come! (I kid b/c I love.)

Pop vote: 52.1-45.4, Obama
E. College: 349.5-188.5, Obama
Senate: +8 Dems
House: +26 Dems

Obama: 53.1, 353 EV
McCain: 45.6, 185 EV

Senate: 57 Democrats (inc. S/L), 42 Republicans, 1 TBA (Chambliss)

House: 251 Democrats, 184 Republicans

EV: Obama 353, McCain 185
Popular: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
Senate: 8 seat gain for D's, runoff in Georgia.
House: +32 for D's.

57 Democratic Senate seats
41 Republican Senate seat
266 Democratic House seats
169 Republican House seats
367 Obama Electoral Votes
171 McCain Electoral Votes
51.3 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
47.2 McCain Popular Vote Percentage

Popular Vote:
Obama 52%
McCain 46%

Electoral College:
Obama 346
McCain 192

Change in Senate Seats:
Democrats +8
Republicans -8
Independents no change

Change in House Seats:
Democrats +33
Republicans -33

I'm going big cause I don't like to bet against my preferred outcome. Also, I buy Ezra's blue state pop vote boost theory.

EV: Obama 370, McCain 168
Popular: Obama 56% McCain 43%
Senate: +8 Dem, GA runoff
House: +28 Dem

Electoral Vote:
Obama 322
McCain 216

Popular Vote:
Obama 53%
McCain 46%

Senate Seats
Democrats +10

House Seats
Democrats +32

Dang, reading back my prediction (way earlier), realised I'd left off Senate and House predictions.

Senate: +8
House: +32

Thus speaketh the sage.

popular vote: 54% Obama 45% McCain

electoral college: 375 for Obama

Dems end up with 59 Senate seats (including the two Is)

Dems end up with 256 House seats

Ezra, you're spot on. This morning, I got to my polling place in Hell's Kitchen at 6:15, thinking I'd zip in and out. Not a chance. Line stretched the entire block, it took me till a little after 8:00 to finish. And I promise you, there was not a single race on the ballot the outcome of which isn't a completely foregone conclusion. Still, everyone waited through a near-chaos of intertwining lines and unhelpful poll workers because they just had to cast that vote. Made me feel great.

Here is my prediction:

Popular vote: 51.6%- 47.2% with Obama winning and 1.2% for third-party candidates.

Electoral college: 348-190, Obama winning FL, but not OH

Senate: Dems pick up 7 seats

House: Dems pick up 23 seats

Obama Electoral Vote: 333
Popular Vote: 52.5% O--46.5%
Senate: Dems +8
House: Dems +29

President, popular vote: Obama 51.4%, McCain 47.8%

Electoral college: Obama 314, McCain 224

Senate: 58 Dem

House: 27 pickups

Electoral College: Obama 353, McCain 185

Popular Vote: Obama 54.3, McCain 44.1

Senate: Dems +8

House: Dems +28

Popular vote:
Obama - 54.7% (69.2 million votes)
McCain - 44.4% (55.5 million votes)
Other - 0.9%

EC
Obama - 364
McCain - 174

Senate: Dems +9
VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, OR, and NC. Franken wins MN by about 5%, and GA goes to Martin in a squeaker, possibly a recount, as voter turnout is higher than anyone expected, even taking into account that people expected unprecedented turnout. Chambliss’s comment from a few days ago that “the other folks are voting” will be the focal point of media coverage of the result. Krugman will at some point cite the race as an example of how the Republican Party paid the price for being the party of intolerance.

House - Dems +31

As a White, Jewish American I cast my vote this morning at 6:00AM proudly for Barack Obama. I know that he will win and I am beaming with pride about America and I am very proud today to be an American. We've come a long way and we still have a long way to go but every American should be thrilled that we chose the content of someone's character rather than the color of his skin in deciding who our next President should be. I am fifty-eight and have grown up during a time when Blacks could not drink from the same water fountains as whites, use the same bathrooms as whites or eat at the same restaurants as whites. Finally, at long last, America has been transformed into a nation where we judge someone for their ability and not their race. I believe the greatness of America that so many people around the world admire and love will be restored by President Obama. Rejoice America!!!!! We did it right, we did it well, and we just elected a great President!.

Look, again, the polls have been suggesting a 6-point win. And you're saying the margin will be bigger. So say 7 points, 8 points. Ohio is not 7-8 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. No amount of quackery about how the McCain voters will come out to vote in the close states while staying home in the not-so-close states will change that. Obama's been ahead in about 18 of the last 20 polls there - but even if we had no Ohio polling I'd still be positive that Ohio's going Obama's way. Bush eked out a win in '04 there; why in the world would Obama not improve on Kerry's performance?

EV: Obama 318, McCain whatever that leaves
PV: 51.5%/48/other
Senate: D+7
House: D+20

PV: 52 to 48 - Obama.
EV: 291 to 247 - Obama.
Senate: D+8
House: D+20

PV: Obama 52%.
EV: Obama 306
Senate: D+7
House: D+23

Popular Vote:

O-54
M-44

Electoral College:

O-385
M-153

Senate:

Dems-58
Reps-41
Runoff-1(GA)

House:

Dems +37

Electoral Vote:
333 Obama to 205 McCain

Popular Vote:
54% Obama
44% McCain

Senate:
58 Dems

House:
Dem + 30

Obama with 353 Electoral Votes
54-43
59 senate
+33 house

No prediction.

But as a Canuck, Ezra, speaking from a country with more than a two-party democracy... everybody else in the world, and I mean everybody, uses the term tactical voting for a specific act. And it's not the one you're defining here.

Tactical voting is (quoting Wikipedia) "when a voter supports a candidate other than his or her sincere preference in order to prevent an undesirable outcome."

Tactical voting is what a die-hard Nader supporter voting Gore in 2000 would have been doing. An Obama voter voting Obama... just doesn't qualify. Terminology fail.

I want the win for Barak to be beyond the margin where the Rethugs can spin it as a victory for McDone and whatever.

It won't happen, but a Goldwater/LBJ outcome is what the GOP deserves (61.1/38.5% pop. vote) with 486/52 elect.vote).

Personally, I care most about seeing red states turn blue than the vote outcomes - as long as Obama wins an uncontested outcome. I'm over the whole red/blue state thing and hope the nation turns that page.

Oh, and the so-called Bradley effect needs to be interred without a RIP epitaph and I think it will.

Popular Vote: Obama 52%
McCain 46%
Others 2%

Electoral Vote: Obama 368
McCain 170

Senate: Dems 60
Reps 40

House: Dems +35

Popular vote: Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Electoral votes: Obama 357
McCain 181

Senate: Dems (counting Sanders and Joementum) +7

House Dems: +29

This probably won't count as a contest entry, but my prediction is that McCain gets no more than 7% of the vote in the District of Columbia.

53.9% Obama

382 EV

Dems gain 10 Senate seats for 61.

House gain of 35 (I think) for 268.

* PV: 53.2% Obama, 45.4% McCain, 1.6% other
* EV: 364 Obama, 174 McCain
* Senate: Dems gain 8 (lose GA in run-off)
* House: Dems gain 32 (including Tom Perriello in VA-5!)

338 EVs for Obama. 52.4% - 44.6% win for Obama. Senate +8 for Dems. House +26 for Dems.

Obama = 388

Senate : 59 Dems

McCain loses AZ

Obama loses IN

my picks from my local election pool:

obama 53.1 % mccain 45.9 %
obama 367 electoral votes
senate dems +8 (59)
house dems +25 (260)