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Momma said wonk you out

THE YOUTH VOTE.

Over at The Next Right, Patrick Ruffini has some interesting reflections on the importance of an overwhelming youth vote -- though not necessarily an increased youth turnout -- for Obama's victory. Among voters between 18-29, Obama held an incredible 66-32 margin. But more importantly, congressional Democrats received virtually the same share: 63-34. That suggests that this wasn't just an Obama phenomenon, but that this demographic is firming up a Democratic political affiliation. Which, after the past few years, is rather what you'd expect. But it's worth saying that this wasn't inevitable. There's a belief out there that young voters are always and everywhere Democratic. But that's not been true in recent years:

A fairly good indicator of the health of a party is the attitudes of young voters who are being exposed to it for the first time. In the 1990s, Generation X was coming of political age, and according to polls conducted by the Pew Research group, Republicans held a 1 percent edge in party identification. In 2008, it is Generation Y that is choosing political allegiances for the first time, and these under-30-somethings show an astonishing 24 percent preference for the Democrats. Even Generation X, which gave Republicans a 3 percent edge as recently as 2004, now prefers Democrats by a margin of 12 percent.
Moreover, young voters have become more Democratic by the year. In 2004, Kerry took them 54-45. In 2006, Democrats won young voters 60-38. And in 2008, Obama took them 66-32. As Ruffini says, "18 percent times a 25 percent increase in the Democratic margin equals 4.5 points, or a majority of Obama's popular vote margin. Had the Democratic 18-29 vote stayed the same as 2004's already impressive percentage, Obama would have won by about 2 points, and would not have won 73 electoral votes from Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, or Indiana." Not good news for Republicans, because the thing about young voters is that they're around for a very long time, and even if voting preferences aren't perfectly stable over a life cycle, early party affiliation is a fairly good predictor of later party affiliation.



COMMENTS

I wonder if the culture war emphasis by the right has produced this result.

While abortion and same-sex marriage may fire up the republican base, I think their children don't have such entrenched feelings about those issues and are more concerned about other issues such as the environment, the economy, and the war.

I think it's a hell of a lot simpler than that--George W Bush has been president my entire adult life. Sure there was his wacky dad who seemed ok and occasionally vomited on asians, and then everybody's fun uncle who couldn't help but get his dick sucked all the time, but I learned about them after the fact. Supposedly at one point we elected a brain-damaged actor but that just seems preposterous. The entire time I have been mature and aware of the doings of the federal government George Bush has been in charge. Look up "president" in my mental dictionary and there he is. That's how it always was, and that was how it was always gonna be--by definition, the world was run by an incompetent asshole who hates my guts.

Tuesday didn't feel like an election, it felt like being teleported into a magical fantasy world where elves and faeries dance in the street annd drafts are always a dollar because WHEE IT'S YOUR BIRTHDAY! You mean the president isn't always a mean spirited morally retarded dry drunk? How novel!

The youth vote is one of the lowest information groups. I always think about Jay Leno stopping young people on the street and asking who our international neighbors to the south are, etc.

Moreover, young voters have become more Democratic by the year.

Seems about right...

It was much more than just showing up at the polls. Young people worked their bums off in the volunteer centers. I also volunteered in 2004 and 2006 for the campaigns, and from my perspective 2008 was astoundingly different. It was as if a whole new army of enthusiastic, able young people swoooped in and immediately set out to work. Within a couple of weeks there were 25, 22 year olds supervising calling groups and organizing schedules and doing a damn good job with it too. In 2004 at the volunteer centers there was plenty of sitting around and griping about how lousy Bush had been , but in 2008 such conversations were likely to be cut off with a "yep, it's been bad, now let's get to work." For someone like me who had grown pretty mean and cynical these last few years, it was quite inspiring. These kids didn't talk so much about partisan bickering so much, they were more interested in citizenship, being active in your government. I have little doubt that at least a few of these new volunteers that I met will be great citizens for years and years to come. They turned my red state blue.

If you are going to talk about historical trends it is more helpful to examine history a little more deeply. Many current Republican baby boomers started out as liberal democrats in the 60s, but a combination of liberal overreach & shifting party platforms changed that. Such a combination could also occur in our near future, making your rosy predictions seem naive a few short years from now. Liberals & Democrats need to pay attention to our history & learn from past mistakes, & successes, if we are to build on our current success.

. Many current Republican baby boomers started out as liberal democrats in the 60s, but a combination of liberal overreach & shifting party platforms changed that.

Perhaps that is true, but I want to see the data demonstrating this. I get the impression that a significant move to conservatism as voters age is mostly a myth. GenX'ers grew up during Reagan and, to my generation's shame, skews heavily conservative based on that experience. The WWII-generation became heavily Democratic under FDR and has remained that way ever since. The Millenials grew up with Clinton and Bush/43 and as a result identify more closely with the Democratic party and have a set of voting habits that have been solidified as Democratic and will likely stay there.

the real shame of GenX is many of them are not very bright

GenX has never "skewed heavily conservative." In 1992 GenX combined with late Boomers were more likely to identified as Republican by 1%. From 1996 onward GenX has always been more likely to self-identify as Democrats.
Only by including late Boomers and the hedge "lean" did the numbers slightly favor Republicans in 2004

Maybe you should have just posted a link to the Pew data instead

fail, who pissed in your cornflakes?

Based on 2004 exit polls, the 30-44 demographic went for Bush over Kerry 53-46, while boomers went 51-48 and the 19-29 demographic went for Kerry 54-45. 60+ was the highest for Bush at 54-46, but by 2004, that demographic skewed heavily in favor of the Silent Generation, diluting the FDR effect of voters on the older end of that scale.

So you're telling me that a group that votes more conservative than the generation before them and the generation after them is not a conservative one?

no I am telling you that you should have posted a link to the Pew article/data because it makes your case batter than you do http://pewresearch.org/pubs/813/gen-dems

more conservative sure
skews heavily conservative not so much
you should have gone with more conservative than 18-29 year olds should ever be

and to answer your question - Yes on 8 and Stevens voters

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About Ezra Klein

Ezra Klein is an associate editor at The American Prospect. An archive of his articles for The American Prospect can be found here.

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