Feeds: 
symbol identifies content for paid subscribers only.
WHY THE RIGHT NEEDS CRAZY.
Michael Cohen is right to say that the NIE on Iran heralds a return of deterrence theory to American foreign policy. But in some ways, the more important takeaway from the passages Cohen quotes pertain to rational choice theory. Put simply: The Iranian regime was rational. It wasn't some eschatological head trip seeking the biggest weapon possible to speed the return of the 12th Imam. Instead, "Iran halted the [nuclear weapons] program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicat[ing] Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs."
The imputation of crazy was not only key to the case against Iran -- you don't want crazies controlling atomic weapons, after all -- but crucial to how we were supposed to respond to Iran. The government's religious fanaticism, we were told, made them impervious to traditional incentives-based approaches, and thus rendered regime change the only viable option. If we assumed a rational Iran -- one, for instance, that wouldn't want to be obliterated by Israel's submarine mounted, second strike capacities -- it wouldn't have made any sense to treat their pursuit of weaponry as an existential threat rather a play for power and prestige.
That's why an irrational Iran was so important. If you wanted to invade, you needed to make them crazy. So Frontpage was writing things like,"it is the apocalyptic element to Ahmadinejad’s faith combined with Iran’s nuclear ambitions that should draw the most serious attention. He believes that a great cataclysm of bloodshed anticipates the return of the 12th Imam, in particular the destruction of infidels – Jews and Christians – that will usher in a new dawn of Islamic worldwide dominance." The Telegraph helpfully informed us that "[Ahmedinejad] actively seeks to bring about an apocalyptic struggle between the righteous and the wicked to accelerate the return of the mahdi or Hidden Imam." Daniel Pipes spoke of his "mystical menace."
All crap, as it turned out. Ahmadinejad doesn't have his finger on the button, as we always knew. But more to the point, Iran doesn't have a button. And they don't have a eschatological theory of foreign relations. They're just a country, like any other, trying to pursue interests, maximize power, and ensure survival. In this, they undoubtedly make mistakes. Rationality is not the same as infallibility. But they, like the Soviets before them, can be dealt with. Those painting them as crazy jst want to bring about war.
COMMENTS (9)
Uh oh, looks like the RSS feed doesn't get the whole post in. Is that a bug, or a feature?
Posted by: verplanck colvin | December 11, 2007 9:38 AM
A lot of RSS feeds don't copy the portion in the extended entry. Just how it goes, I fear.
Posted by: Ezra | December 11, 2007 9:46 AM
Just to clarify. Ahmadinejad is crazy. But he doesn't run the country.
Contrast with America. Cheney is crazy. And he does run the country.
Posted by: Joe S. | December 11, 2007 10:02 AM
the more important takeaway from the passages Cohen quotes pertain to rational choice theory. Put simply: The Iranian regime was rational.
Although it's worth pointing out that there was never any serious doubt about this. War-happy buffoons on the right are constantly insisting otherwise, but I think even most of them realize that what they are spouting is complete B.S., and can't resist the easy rhetorical crutch of having an answer to any possible counter-argument: the Iranians are lunatics who can't be reasoned with.
The truth is that there has never really been a nation that operated this way. Nations do not operate by the same logic that a suicide bomber does. People point to Japan and Germany. But while a lot of Hitler's behavior looks suicidal in retrospect, at the time his failure wasn't at all inevitable. Japan was supposedly willing to fight to the last man, but Hiroshima and Nagasaki hastened a surrender that was already in the works.
Obviously, regimes are capable of miscalculation; it wasn't really in Germany's interest to invade the USSR. But they thought they would emerge victorious. I guarantee you there is no way that the Mullahs in Iran believe they would come out ahead in a war with the U.S. and Israel, even with nukes. They have shown no indication of such a delusion, and indeed have acted quite to the contrary.
Posted by: Jason C. | December 11, 2007 10:47 AM
Seems to me the Right needs teh crazy in both their allies and their foes. It's only the crazy out there that keeps them from having to address the fact that teh crazy is inside their own skin.
Posted by: bystander | December 11, 2007 12:13 PM
"But more to the point, Iran doesn't have a button."
Who says Iran doesn't have button? The NIE? The same agency that said Saddam had a button? Why are they right this time?
Posted by: abg | December 11, 2007 2:31 PM
Forget whether you agree with the NIE's conclusion on the cessation of Iranian weapons programs. No one I know of has ever argued that Iran has already developed a bomb.
Posted by: Ezra | December 11, 2007 3:00 PM
Surely someone's done it. It wouldn't be the first utterly reality-free stance from the wingers. Hell, Falwell's 'Clinton Chronicles' sold 150,000 copies.
Posted by: Glenn Fayard | December 11, 2007 10:24 PM
"...Joe Biden is now the third best bet for the nomination. I'm hearing a lot of buzz about him from people who pay attention."
- Chris Matthews, MSNBC (12/10/07)
The Biden for President Campaign would like YOU to go to IOWA. This once-in-a-lifetime opportunity would allow you to see a caucus and presidential campaign first-hand in the earliest voting state. We need your help, so please join us as we strive to get Senator Biden elected the next PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
Dates: Anytime between December 14, 2007 - January 4th, 2008
Accommodations: Provided by the campaign. (Contact for more details)
Please join us for this INCREDIBLE opportunity. If you would like to find out more information, please e-mail our campaign: Becky McAndrews at Becky@joebiden.com or Josh Kagan at Joshua@joebiden.com with the subject line: IOWA. You may also call the campaign at (302) 574-2008!
Thank you and we hope to see you out in IOWA!
- The Biden for President Team
Posted by: STEW | December 14, 2007 9:11 PM