MAKING MONEY BY WATCHING TELEVISION.
Via Mike Scherer, the people on the financial news shows are idiots who are trying to make you poor. The video gets good four minutes in.
And of course they are. The gig is to make you feel like you can make money, so you keep watching for more awesome, money-making tips. That means they have to explain how you can do things that will make you money. And that means there have to be broad and obvious ways to make money. And more than that, it has to seem like the folks on the teevee know how to make that money. But they don't.
CXO Advisory Group tracked Jim Cramer's picks for awhile and concluded "Based on subsequent stock market performance and our judgments about his forecasts for overall stock market direction, Jim Cramer is right about 46% of the time with his stock market predictions, a little below average." Stunning performance. Meanwhile, anyone who has ever read Larry Kudlow wonders how he's able to manage a folding chair without assistance, much less other people's money. He's the sort of guy who monocausally attributes market movement to Obama's standing in the polls. Indeed, if markets are half as efficient as he believes, than his show exists in stark contradiction to the implications of efficient markets. But he has a finance show. Because like with political commentary, ratings come from entertainment, not insight and accuracy. And a broadcast that was all doom and destruction and frank admissions of ignorance wouldn't be very fun to watch.
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COMMENTS (20)
"anyone who has ever read Larry Kudlow wonders how he's able to manage a folding chair without assistance"
your funniest line ever, Ezra.
Posted by: rob! | December 2, 2008 5:16 PM
When was this video from?
Posted by: John | December 2, 2008 5:18 PM
Just to harp on this fact even more so, even Shif, as right as he was about the coming collapse, was totally wrong on the effects. He prediction that the dollar would crash has been way, way off. The dollar has gained in strength. He predicted that gold would be good, but the price of gold has dropped dramatically.
So in that entire video, EVERYONE was wrong. Shiff is a slightly better dunce than the rest of them.
Posted by: Charles George | December 2, 2008 5:28 PM
To be fair, the dollar did collapse until the whole global financial system went into meltdown and US Treasuries became the only asset class in the world that anyone wanted to hold.
Posted by: Ginger Yellow | December 2, 2008 5:40 PM
The video is interesting... but I think it leads to easy to score zings like Ezra's offering and the reality's a bit more complicated - in retrospect Schiff was clearly far more accurate; but nay saying and doomsday speak not only doesn't play well, it wasn't where anyone else was. I don't necessarily fault someone like Stein for believing, in good faith, that he was assessing things based on his understanding. For these guys, who really saw one way of stock analysis only, their numbers told them a story that looked good (that's also true of Cramer), it just turns out their analysis was utterly wrong. And anybody who makes investment decisions based on soundbites from a TV show is really getting what they deserve. In hindsight, it's easy to tease and make fun of them... but honestly - we'll buy new snake oil from the next convincing salesperson. That's the American way.
Posted by: weboy | December 2, 2008 5:49 PM
Schiff is no angel. His book "C- P-" is full of advice to buy gold overseas and liquidate all your dollar-denominated assets.
While his advice is interesting and perhaps profitable in the short term, I suspect that his book has made him far more money than he has saved for people.
Posted by: Klug | December 2, 2008 6:26 PM
Ben Stein is incredible. How is it that Bush didn't make him Secretary of the Treasury? The amazing thing is that Ben is the son of the distinguished economist Herb Stein. He really makes the expression "regression to the mean" come alive.
Posted by: Paul Gottlieb | December 2, 2008 6:32 PM
Watched the clip 3 times, found it grimly fascinating. I liked Schiff, but I also found myself sympathizing with the stock market bulls he was debating. They're very good salespeople, but they need to be selling a better product than easy money in the stock market, unmoored from fundamentals.
Anyway, the clip had me googling this excerpt from a great Dorothy Sayers essay, "The Other Six Deadly Sins":
http://gashwingomes.blogspot.com/2008/02/seven-deadlies-covetousness.html
Posted by: roublen | December 2, 2008 8:00 PM
Also reminded me of this: "A Bit of Fry and Laurie - Market Forces"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOMqfx5Ers4
Posted by: roublen | December 2, 2008 8:03 PM
Ginger Yellow:
Gold did top $1,000 very briefly. I don't know why it dropped down as low as $700 since then(meaning the fundamentals).
Posted by: Joe Klein's conscience | December 2, 2008 8:53 PM
i give peter schiff credit.
peter schiff has been predicting this scenario for a very long time.....
he was being insultingly mocked by cavuto and his round~table and kudlow, laffer and friends even two years ago, i think.
i think he has been the only one, to the best of my knowledge, on these financial news shows, to speak honestly about what he saw in the future....while jim kramer was busy going through his frenetic antics with raging bulls and people calling in from tennessee and new jersey, yelling, "booyah" and proclaiming him a genius.
kramer espouses the wonderful philosophy that if you want to make money, forget about high-minded morality when choosing your investments.
does he still have his show?
do people still want his advice?
i have marvelled at the absolute lack of knowledge of the squawkbox commentators and the bevy of "money honeys" pretending to be economists, as they fly off to interview warren buffet, sultans and ceos on skiing trips at gstaad.
it seems the only one who has been honest enough to speak truthfully about the disaster which has become the economy, has been peter schiff.
Posted by: jacqueline | December 2, 2008 9:48 PM
He prediction that the dollar would crash has been way, way off. The dollar has gained in strength. He predicted that gold would be good, but the price of gold has dropped dramatically.
He was a Ron Paul advisor...goldbug, maybe? That would of course add to the ridiculousness of him being the only one with a half a clue.
What's most amusing to me is the idiots' reaction to Schiff. It's like they're having a delightful conversation at a cocktail party and he just dropped his trousers and took a dump.
Posted by: djw | December 2, 2008 10:55 PM
That analyst said the Dow would go to 16,000!! And he laughed at Schiff when he said the market was going to collapse.
I've never even heard of this guy, but he foresaw the collapse of the financial giants-- he was right. They were toxic.
But, on Ezra's larger point, even Schiff himself is a part of the entertainment packaging of financial news. He is the "court jester", or "village idiot" if you prefer, whose only purpose served is to be beaten down by all the other so-called experts. Without his counterpoint, it would simply be boring experts nodding in agreement. That wouldn't be anymore entertaining than the doom and destruction Ezra mentions. FOXSPEWS only books the doomsayers who offer clear entertainment value. Ditto for the fake 'moral outrage' of O'Reilly, Olbermann, etc. Let's face it, most viewers don't care, or don't even know what the hell they are screaming about half the time. They just like to see someone get angry on TV.
Posted by: AaronJ | December 2, 2008 11:17 PM
I think that there are some good, legitimate ways to make good money on the internet. The trick is to be careful.... there are a lot of great internet making tips in Ken Lizotte's book, "The Expert's Edge."
Posted by: Becky | December 3, 2008 1:01 AM
That video is shocking. I knew the financial press was silly, but I didn't know it was worse than the political press.
Posted by: Shoe | December 3, 2008 4:37 AM
it just turns out their analysis was utterly wrong.
Well, yes, that's the point, isn't it? "Merrill Lynch is an astonishingly well-run company."
Posted by: Matt Weiner | December 3, 2008 7:48 AM
Financial advisers are selling a product, and they make money if you buy it. End of story.
Part of the problem is that actual, useful financial advice tends to be boring, somewhat technical, and long term. The basic rule is that personal finance is the opposite of sex-- if your finances are exciting, you're doing it badly.
Posted by: MattF | December 3, 2008 8:43 AM
MattF is right. The selling of expert financial opinion is about creating the best sounding noise, not genuine insight. And to be fair, on average, everybody is equally bad at fortelling the future. Those who are successful at this game simply advertise the times they were randomly right, rather than the times they were randomly wrong. For example, Jimmy Rogers is oftened referred to as someone who "correctly called the bottom in commodity markets in 1999." The problem is that he also called the bottom of the commodity markets in 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, etc..
The reason this works is that people want to believe there is some secret--and moreover, an amazingly simple secret--that will make them rich. The easiest way to part someone from his or her money is to appeal to greed. There is no sucker like a greedy sucker.
Posted by: PureGuesswork | December 3, 2008 10:28 AM
But he has a finance show. Because like with political commentary, ratings come from entertainment, not insight and accuracy. And a broadcast that was all doom and destruction and frank admissions of ignorance wouldn't be very fun to watch.
You know Ezra, I think you are interesting but this is pretty rich. Haven't you been on cable networks giving your opinion on the economy and the bailouts? (weren't you on the cable networks talking about Georgia and Russia?)
I'd be interested to know if you ever turned down an invitation to do a broadcast because you were ignorant about a subject.
Or is it just that other people shouldn't be opining?
Posted by: kaybeel | December 3, 2008 10:44 AM
This is really unbelieveable. If there were an award for wrongheaded smugness, these guys would be in the hall of fame. Wait! There is: a talking head slot on Fox!
Posted by: Don Duprey | December 3, 2008 6:02 PM