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Momma said wonk you out

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE ISRAELI STRIKES.

Karen Tumulty asks "whether the surprise intensity of Israel's retaliation is related to the fact that this country is in the midst of a presidential transition." There's a political logic to Israel's timing. The Bush administration is, for Israel, predictable in their support. Indeed, Secretary Rice responded to the attacks by saying, "The United States strongly condemns the repeated rocket and mortar attacks against Israel and holds Hamas responsible for breaking the cease-fire and for the renewal of violence in Gaza."

The Obama administration is less predictable. They may not support a massive air campaign that kills 300 Palestinians. Or they might. But it's a chance Israel is better off not taking. They don't want to begin their relationship with Obama by launching massive air strikes against his express objections. Hence the timing. Conducting the strikes in the final days of Bush means you don't have to conduct them in the first days of Obama. That ensures that the conflict will not take place over explicit American opposition, with all the potential diplomatic consequences that would entail. This way, Israel can accomplish its military objectives before Obama enters office. They can even let him help broker a ceasefire and secure an early international accomplishment.

The other factor is Israel's domestic politics. Tzipi Livni and her allies in Kadima face a tough election against Benjamin Netanyahu and his more aggressively hawkish coalition. But there's no space to the right of this campaign. Netanyahu cannot pledge to kill 500 Palestinians, rather than Kadima's 300. And electorates tend to prefer the status quo in times of war. The vote is on February 10th.



COMMENTS

One waits to hear Ezra Klein's recommendation for what Israel should do when the Palestinians fire rockets at their people. Eat popcorn and watch, I guess.

Watching Livni today on Fox News Suunday, I was struck by the immediate sensation that she was running for something. Her responses, her justifications... all spoke to the audience she needs to win the election, and I am convinced this "retaliation" is meant to show Kadima's willingness to not just talk tough, but to act. And that's easy to do when Israelis, and many Americans have little sympathy for the Palestinians.

I don't know what an Obama Administration should do, but what I think we do know is that the current approach Livni and Barak are taking doesn't ultimately solve the problem; unless Israel wants to occupy the Palestinian territories forever (assuming that anyone would let them), they have to have a Palestinian government they can work with, and abide with, in peace. These attacks get them no closer to that goal, and probably, yet again, make things worse. But after years of America doing little to try and solve this, I'm not sure anyone can say what an Israeli government should do instead. And I have little hope, in the short run, that Obama, Clinton, or anyone else has good answers for what next.

"This way, Israel can accomplish its military objectives before Obama enters office."

What military objectives? Seriously, the huge problem is that neither side has any long term plan. Hamas seems to think that this time, for sure, killing a handful of Israeli civilians will scare the Israeli government into giving up the entire country. Israel seems to think that this time killing a bunch of Hamas's terrorists and a bunch of civilians will teach them a lesson and be sure to scare them into stopping their attacks.

Either both sides are stupid, or the politicians on both sides realize they stay in power as long as everyone is scared. So there are no military objectives, only political ones.

The supposed military objective of this campaign is to destroy Hamas's security infrastructure: The barracks the police stations, the training facilities, etc. Much of that will no doubt be accomplished. The odd reality is that that will make it easier for Hamas to act as a terrorist group -- suicide bombers don't need barracks -- and harder to act as a government.

Netanyahu cannot pledge to kill 500 Palestinians, rather than Kadima's 300.

Oh, he can, albeit without quantifying. He can also make appeals to the batshit settlers in the West Bank who have been running their own terror campaigns of late.

"One waits to hear Ezra Klein's recommendation for what Israel should do when the Palestinians fire rockets at their people."

I would suggest that ending a 40 year illegal occupation might be a good start.

As Ezra said in his earlier post, the checkpoints, road closures, restricted movement, terrible joblessness, unflinching oppression, and daily humiliations should be ended as well. Maybe treat these people as people and not dogs.

The Israeli's have been playing the United States for chumps over the course of decades. It's as though America has lost its collective mind, lost its sense of pride and power by reflexively kowtowing to a vain and reckless foreign power.

"I would suggest that ending a 40 year illegal occupation might be a good start."

Well, at least some of Klein's commenters are more candid than Klein when they write that violence against Israelis is OK and acceptable.

Well, the timing is first and foremost because Hamas continued shooting rockets into neighbouring Israeli towns, and the Israeli public demanded military action.

Also, I really don't think Arabs are angry at the US now. If anything they are angry at Arab governments such as Egypt that are as anti-Hamas as Israeli is. Remember, Hamas and Al-Qaeda are about throwing secular Arab regimes - the US is only of secondary concern to them.


I find violence against any peoples unacceptable. At some point someone has to break this cycle of lunacy. And I simply am suggesting that enough is enough.....and that rather counting who has dropped how many bombs, etc, that the occupier take the first step and withdraw.

poverty, hopelessness, lack of opportunity, an empty future, lack of dignity, worth and education breeds despair and violence.
until that ends, nothing can change.

hurting people hurt other people.

Ezra is fundamentally wrong in writing that "the Obama administration is less predictable." During the campaign, Obama made crystal clear that he would steadfastly stand behind whatever Israel did under the ostensible purpose of protecting itself. As he said during the campaign, "I have been proud to be a part of a strong, bipartisan consensus that has stood by Israel in the face of all threats . . . I will bring to the White House an unshakeable commitment to Israel's security. That starts with ensuring Israel's qualitative military advantage." Anyone who believed that he would make any departure from America's staunchly pro-Israel stance was either self-deluded or willfully ignorant.

"One waits to hear Ezra Klein's recommendation for what Israel should do when the Palestinians fire rockets at their people. Eat popcorn and watch, I guess."

Do you have anything else (hopefully something of at least dubious substance) to say? Because posting your braindead bullshit on every thread simply makes you look even more stupid than you appear to be.

300 vs. 500? When the US retook Fallujah in November 2004, we killed between 2,000 and 10,000, mostly civilians. When the Jordanians put down the Palestinian attempt to establish independent enclaves in Jordan in 1970, they killed at least 10,000, mostly civilians. Three hundred dead is not even a start if this is a genuine effort to cripple Hamas.

Obama has declared himself a lapdog of Zionist extremism. Take a look at his speech to AIPAC. Take a look at the ultra-Zionist goon who is Obama's chief of staff. Take a damned look. It sure looks like an Obama administration will be at least servile in its pro-Israel stance as Bush.

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About Ezra Klein

Ezra Klein is an associate editor at The American Prospect. An archive of his articles for The American Prospect can be found here.

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