FUDGING FACTS ON THE NEVADA CAUCUS
So yesterday Bill Clinton was asked by a reporter about the lawsuit filed by Clinton supporters in Nevada trying to squash the at-large caucus sites at which casino workers would be able to vote in Saturday's caucus, and he got all up in the dude's grille:
Clinton, just inches from his face, fired back.''There were teachers who filed the lawsuit. You have asked the question in an accusatory way, so I will ask you back,'' the former president said. ''Do you really believe that all the Democrats understood that they had agreed to give people who worked in the casino a vote worth five times as much as people who voted in their own precinct?''
''Did you know that? Their votes will be counted five times more powerfully, in terms of delegates to the state convention, compared to delegates to the national convention.''
Matthews noted the state party approved the set up.
Clinton: ''What happened is nobody understood what happened ... they uncovered it. And now everybody's saying, ''Oh, they don't want us to vote...what they really tried to do was to set up a deal where their votes counted five times, maybe even more, as much.''
Well that sounds terribly unfair -- the casino workers' votes will count five times as much? Awful! Except it seems to be completely false. So where did Clinton arrive at this number? I can't say for sure, but it seems he just made it up.
As is often the case in the Rube Goldberg delegate allocation system used in caucuses, there is an absurdly complex formula to determine how many delegates each precinct receives. But the Las Vegas Sun crunched the numbers, and according to their calculation, if 10,000 people voted at the at-large precincts, they would make up around 6 percent of the total delegates for the state. Now, does that mean that the votes of those who vote there will count five times as much as anyone else's? Only if you assume that statewide turnout will be so large the at-large precincts will only make up 1.2 percent of the vote (6 percent divided by 5). That would mean, under this scenario, that total turnout in the Democratic caucus would have to be 833,333.
Will turnout be that high? Well, no. As the Sun recently reported, "Democratic circles are abuzz with excitement about Nevada’s caucus, and people are starting to think that the state party’s early estimate - recently repeated by Sen. Harry Reid - of 100,000 people might just be possible."
In order for the at-large precincts to be over-represented, the turnout there would have to be incredibly low, while turnout everywhere else in the state is incredibly high, and there is no reason to think that will happen. I don't expect some local TV reporter to go toe-to-toe with Bill Clinton when he probably didn't have all the information at his disposal anyway, but somebody should confront Clinton on why he keeps just making stuff up.
And isn't it about time we did away with caucuses altogether? Is there any reason to do things this way? Might be something to add to the democracy agenda, after we fix our voting machines and amend the constitution to eliminate the electoral college.
UPDATE: Turns out I didn't give the reporter enough credit. Now that the video of the local news segment has emerged, we see that he did in fact correct the Big Dog on his fact-fudging. Here's the video:
-- Paul Waldman
Feeds: 


COMMENTS (17)
What! Bill Clinton making shit up? Nooooo!
Posted by: Dawn | January 17, 2008 1:19 PM
And abolish the US Senate while we are at it!!!
Posted by: Preznit | January 17, 2008 1:39 PM
I'm sick of the poor press coverage. The underlying story describes Bill Clinton as "just inches from his face".
Well.
Go watch the video and see what passes for "just inches from his faace." Gimme a break.
The article also says "Clinton's final round, eyes blazing."
Was there ever a time when people just reported the facts? C'mon.
Posted by: Mike | January 17, 2008 1:50 PM
I'm sick of the poor press coverage. The underlying story describes Bill Clinton as "just inches from his face".
Well.
Go watch the video and see what passes for "just inches from his face." Gimme a break.
The article also says "Clinton's final round, eyes blazing."
Was there ever a time when people just reported the facts? C'mon.
Posted by: Mike | January 17, 2008 1:52 PM
So what is the disadvantage that the teachers see in the current set up? And the advantage that the Obama camp sees in the current set up? Obviously, if the Obama camp is so adamant about keeping the current set up in place, they see some advantage to them in doing so. What is it? I wish someone would spend som time explaining this -- rather than reporting about who is supporting whom in the fight and why they're evil.
Posted by: esmense | January 17, 2008 2:42 PM
The reason we do things this way is because the parties treat Iowa and New Hampshire as sacred. And that means that if the Democrats wanted to move Nevada up to give it more influence, they had to make it a caucus so as not to offend New Hampshire with its primary. Even though caucuses may work at least in a mediocre fashion in Iowa, but don't work at all in a state with even a midsized population and a major city like Nevada has.
Posted by: Dilan Esper | January 17, 2008 2:46 PM
There are lots of other people who are against the "special" caucus arrangements, including some culinary workers themselves.
Why? Because they say that the way the on-the-job caucuses work is that UNION BOSSES will be breathing down your neck to make sure you vote for the "right" person (which in this case is Obama).
Everyone gathers in a big room and their votes are KNOWN.
So, do you think workers who are for Hillary or Edwards would DARE GO AGAINST THEIR UNION BOSSES' WISHES?
It's much more democratic and fair to allow workers to caucus in their neighborhoods where they have much less pressure to vote for the candidate their BOSSES are supporting.
That's the real reason why it is not a good idea to have people cast open votes at the place of work, especially when their union bosses are supporting someone.
Posted by: Citation | January 17, 2008 2:47 PM
I've read a little more about this since last posting, and I have to say -- it sounds like a plan that's intention was to give the Culinary Workers Union greater control over and a larger voice in the process.
Work place caucusing is a great idea -- but it's not a fair or democratic idea if only applies to some limited number of workplaces.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 17, 2008 3:03 PM
Clintons twisted the Nevada rules to their favor before, assuming they would win the union vote. now when they lost the union vote, they proclaim their own twist as unfair. This is why America doesn't want hil-bily
Posted by: Fair is fair | January 17, 2008 4:17 PM
Clintons twisted the Nevada rules to their favor before, assuming they would win the union vote. now when they lost the union vote, they proclaim their own twist as unfair. This is why America doesn't want hil-bily
Posted by: Fair is fair | January 17, 2008 4:19 PM
Don't be so naive. Do you think the Obama people are so pure that they wouldn't do the same if they were in the Clintons' position?
This whole union caucusing thing is a pure power play to force union members to vote the way the leadership wants them to!
The reason the Culinary Workers' Union was such a juicy endorsement for Obama is because the membership is 30 to 35 percent Latino. If left alone, the great majority of Latinos will vote for Clinton but under the "sponsorship" or dictatorship of the union bosses, they will be coerced into voting for Obama.
The point is the whole caucus idea is not a great one, given the open nature of the voting and the fact that with strong union bosses bearing down on you, it's very difficult to cast a vote for anyone other than who your bosses want you to vote for.
Posted by: Citation | January 17, 2008 4:42 PM
In other words, the leaders of the Culinary Union now have a "CAPTIVE ELECTORATE" who will surely deliver virtually all their votes to Obama--not because they want to but because they have to if they don't want to antagonize the BOSSES who will be breathing down their necks.
Is this fair to the workers? Is this a mockery of democracy?
Is this enfranchisement or disenfranchisement?
Is this any different from the old days when minorities were deprived of an opportunity to vote under various guises?
Is this, as the Culinary Union bosses claim, "encouraging diversity," OR IS IT COERCION when they well know that they will do everything in their power to DELIVER THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THEIR UNION MEMBERS' VOTES TO OBAMA, WHOM THEY HAVE ENDORSED?
There are no white knights in shining armer! Everyone has an ulterior motive, including the Culinary Union leadership who claim to be ensuring that everyone votes but in reality, they want to ensure that EVERYONE VOTES THEIR WAY and the only way they can guarantee that is to GET THEM TO VOTE IN PUBLIC AT THEIR PLACES OF WORK UNDER THE GLARE OF BIG BROTHER.
Posted by: Citation | January 17, 2008 4:56 PM
"Do you think the Obama people are so pure that they wouldn't do the same if they were in the Clintons' position?"
I doubt there would be a lawsuit if Clinton had won the Culinary Workers endorsement, yes.
Posted by: Korha | January 17, 2008 5:54 PM
"So where did Clinton arrive at this number? I can't say for sure, but it seems he just made it up."
Well that all depends on what the definition of 5 is.
But seriously folks, no real Democrat can support 11th hour lawsuits of this nature. Filing a law suit a mere hours before an election is done for only ONE purpose -- and that is voter suppression.
Posted by: NevadaforRichardson | January 17, 2008 6:40 PM
Anything that encourages more people to vote I think is a good thing. Though I think they should allow people that live in the vicinity to also vote at this mega voting centers there should be a way to track all of this. Im a little suspicious of this ivotronic voting machines until there is a paper ballot to trace every vote i think they should not be used. Too many glitches and the whipe out of votes secret programs could be used to whip out votes in certian areas. Like in Michagan nobody is talking about it but its a reality 26 counties in michagan had there votes wiped out in the uncommited vote.. Well where did they go and how much...looking at the the uncomited vote was 12 % higher on paper ballots then these electronic voting machines.. this seriously needs to be discused and addresed Good for Kisenich to stand up and demand a recount.
I do sorta agree that this open style of announicing who u are voting for in a union style setting may not be tottaly fair. Maybe they should allow certain ones who want privacy with there vote to have it. THough i think these are the type of things that should be worked out years b4 election not a week b4. It was agreed to by all parties involved including the clinton camp who figured she would just walk into nevada and get that endorsement she didnt get it now she cries foul. One thing about obama u got to like is he always manages to keep his cool and will make his judgements on the long term intrests of all of us not a select few. I think Billary is pretty good on policy issues though she bases her campaign out of fear and twists everything and it looks dishonest and not genuine. Hopefully america looks for a future than a past..
Posted by: Hill bill | January 17, 2008 6:49 PM
All the people complaining about the (supposed) lack of purity by Obama's campaign need to keep one thing in sight and that is this:
The state party agreed on this last year. Some of the people brining this suit were at those discussion and voted for the plan (or at the bare minimum, didn't challenge it). The bottom line is that it would not in any way have been hard to game out scenarios in which any candidate won the endorsements of the unions. That Obama won Iowa and then got the union endorsements in Nevada was the trigger for the suit; the teacher's union assumed the other unions would line up behind Hillary and they were wrong. It happens. But it's dirty pool to change the rules at the 11th hour because you're shortsighted.
Posted by: Mike P | January 17, 2008 7:37 PM
Stop calling him "the Big Dog." Really.
Posted by: Christmas | January 18, 2008 8:21 AM