PLAY MISTY FOR ME.
After Hillary Clinton had her now-famous Misty Moment (no one has come up with a name for it, so that’s my nominee) on Monday, right-wing commentators were quick to insist that it was all planned. As Michelle Malkin wrote, “Anyone who believes Hillary spontaneously teared up and got emotional on the campaign trail has been in a coma the last three decades.” Because she’s Hillary Clinton, in their view, she is incapable of anything resembling a genuine feeling – all is calculation, sinister manipulation, the dark arts of politics. The evidence is that she’s been a mean person for a long time, and therefore this must have been fake.
They may be blinded by hate, but in this one case, I think they’re actually right. It was planned.
Before we get to the reasons why, let’s set the context. As the first woman with a real chance to win the presidency, Hillary Clinton is subject to a whole set of double standards and Catch-22s that male candidates don’t have to worry about. If she doesn’t show emotion, she’s cold, an ice queen, a bitch. If she does show emotion, she’s unstable, not tough enough to be commander in chief. If she lives up to gender stereotypes, she gets criticized, and if she counters the stereotypes, she gets criticized.
This is the reality that Clinton has always had to deal with. And you can bet that just as Barack Obama has thought very carefully about how his race would affect his bid for the presidency, Clinton gave plenty of consideration and planning to the ways her gender would play out during the campaign.
So why do I think the Misty Moment was planned? The evidence is circumstantial, and I have not spoken about this to anyone in the Clinton campaign, the Obama campaign, or any other campaign. But I do think it’s compelling. So stay with me to the end. Let’s break it down:
1. The key indicator in Iowa was that Barack Obama actually beat Clinton among women by 5 points. The Clinton campaign knew full well that if they didn’t beat Obama among women by a significant margin, there was simply no way for them to win New Hampshire.
2. As the weekend turned to Monday, the Clinton campaign was facing an existential crisis. Multiple polls showed Obama up by double digits, and it was obvious that if he won in New Hampshire after winning Iowa, he would be virtually unstoppable. Faced with this prospect, Clinton had two choices. She could essentially do nothing -- just ride it out, try to have good events, do well enough during the debate, and hope for some unexpected change of heart among the voters. This was a recipe for defeat.
The other option was to do something. There is nothing harder in politics than creating a happening that captivates the press and ultimately moves votes. But the idea that faced with their demise, the Clinton campaign wouldn’t try something, anything to turn things around seems highly unlikely.
3. If they were going to try something, it had to be something that would stir the press to focus on it, and affect how significant numbers of voters looked at her, or at Obama. Since women voters were both their biggest problem and their biggest area of opportunity, the logical place to go would be for an appeal to them. And how could she appeal to them? It wouldn’t be enough to just make a new argument – she had to create an event that would pull women toward her. She had long ago established that she was tough, so doing something to appear strong wouldn’t make a difference. But if she countered the image she had labored so hard to create, by actually reinforcing some stereotypes from which women suffer, it was a good bet that it would dominate the last news cycle of the race, and that misogynistic creeps like Chris Matthews and Rush Limbaugh would be all over her for it.
If all went well, this would pull women toward her in two ways – sympathy for the struggles she has undergone and is undergoing, and anger at the men who were now in effect saying that she shouldn’t be president because she’s acting like a woman.
Do not underestimate the power of those emotions, particularly from women who came of age before or during the feminist movement of the 1970s. This is obviously a topic worthy of lengthy discussion, but to put it briefly, most young women have experienced sexism, but older women, particularly those who ever had any ambitions for a career, have experienced a kind of vicious, humiliating sexism in the workplace as a matter of routine that, while it hasn’t disappeared, has become much more rare. Seeing someone like Clinton being pilloried by the likes of Matthews for daring to get choked up reminds them, in an incredibly powerful way, of all that they had to endure. (If you don’t quite get what I’m talking about, ask your mom.) There isn’t a lot you can do when those wounds get poked, but one thing you can do is stand with someone who is experiencing what you experienced.
4. Throughout the Clinton presidency and her Senate campaigns, it was always the case that whenever Hillary Clinton got attacked, her approval numbers rose. Whether it was Ken Starr, Rick Lazio, or the legions of Clinton-haters, she has always thrived – particularly with women – whenever under assault, particularly by men who look like bullies. She and her people understand this very well.
5. Now let’s look at what actually happened on Monday. As she begins to answer, her voice cracks, and it sounds as though she’s fighting back tears. Now let’s remember that Hillary Clinton is a professional. She’s been through lots of campaigns, and lots of other pressure-packed situations. I am most definitely not saying that it would have been impossible for her to get choked up. What I am saying is that it is almost impossible to believe that if she wanted to, she would not have been able to compose herself. She could have paused, taken a breath, and continued to answer without her voice cracking. But that wasn’t what happened. She keeps talking, and for a full thirty seconds, she sounds as though she’s crying. Her voice gets a little stronger for a bit, and then just at the end, when she says, “The voters get to decide,” you hear it again. (The video is here if you want to watch it again.)
It’s could be that it happened spontaneously, and Clinton said to herself, “Well, I’m just not going to try to get myself together here.” But for a woman who has worked so hard to overcome sexist stereotypes, it’s unlikely that would be her first thought.
All of these factors combine to suggest strongly that the Misty Moment was planned. If that’s the case, it was absolutely brilliant, and our hats should be off to them. When the exit polls came back, Clinton won women in New Hampshire by 12 points, and she won among late-deciding voters. In her speech last night, she drove home the point with women, saying that in New Hampshire, “I found my own voice.” This is a key feminist idea: women were held back not only by laws that kept them from voting or owning property, but by being silenced, told that their opinions didn’t matter, that they didn’t have a right to speak and be heard.
For months, the Clinton campaign has danced around making explicit appeals to women and seeking to widen the gender gap. They wanted to do it subtly, without making it to obvious so as to avoid alienating male voters. But from this point on, they just might make it the cornerstone of their strategy.
--Paul Waldman
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COMMENTS (36)
Wow. Yeah, she's that good of an actress. Brilliant, really.
She was dead tired from campaigning. According to that rationale, there's nothing she could ever do to make you change your mind. You can't prove a false negative! She's stuck.
Let it go, already. And no, I'm not a Clinton supporter.
Posted by: Davidson | January 9, 2008 11:59 AM
Or perhaps she was simply tired and emotionally drained? Jeebus.
Posted by: Passing Shot | January 9, 2008 12:00 PM
her mistiness at the tragic prospect of our country being denied her leadership was probably sincere.
Posted by: benjoya | January 9, 2008 12:02 PM
Isn't it almost worse if it wasn't planned?
Your husband going on national TV to lie about his affair? Not a single tear. A whole right wing publishing industry dedicating to attacking you in the sleaziest, most disgusting manner possible? Steely resolve. She was incredibly strong throughout horrible, vile muck of the 1990s -- more than about any pol could have been.
But the possibility of a setback -- just a setback, not a loss-- in an election? Many, many other Democrats have been right there. Have, in fact, LOST the early primaries to come back roaring. NO other Democrat has experienced the hell that was the "vast right wing conspiracy". Given everything else that has happened to Hillary Clinton in the public eye, this is the thing that gets her sobbing? If it was planned, it's brilliant. If it WASN'T planned then it says something a little odd about priorities, doesn't it?
Posted by: ChicagoDem | January 9, 2008 12:11 PM
This is a joke, right? You could not possibly be so cynical, so dunderheaded, as to think she contrived this moment. For christ sakes, look at the tape. This was, for good or ill (and most people thought for ill before the vote), a moment when a woman who felt herself under siege showed genuine emotion. Stop with this sort of overly clever analysis.
Posted by: dmh | January 9, 2008 12:14 PM
Whether it was planned or not (and I am glad to see that someone else can objectively suggest that it may have been) is not what infuriated me when I saw it. It is the hypocracy of what she actually said when she was tearing up. When she said it was personal, she was literally plagerizing from John Edwards. And that is not to say that it is only personal for John Edwards and no one else. The point is that when Obama used the theme of hope and Edwards used the theme of passion and it being personal, Hillary criticized them rather coldly as being unrealistic and naive. She took a very negative tone and was in attack mode. Edwards was correct Saturday night in pointing out that she was in attack mode because she was behind. Lo and behold, two days later Hillary tears up and says its personal. Very convenient. I wonder where she heard that before. It's not the words themselves that bother me as an Edwards supporter, it is the hypocrisy and the convenience of it in my eyes. It won her the primary.
Posted by: Dave | January 9, 2008 12:20 PM
A brilliant take-- the best evidence that the moment was planned is that Hillary then segued so effortlessly into her talking points against Obama. She's a seasoned pro and knew that a bad loss in NH would probably have doomed her last chance to become president. I salute her for that and will vote for her in November, if she's the nominee. But believing that she acted spontaneously is clearly the triumph of "hope" over "experience"!
Posted by: MichaelK | January 9, 2008 12:28 PM
As much as I hate Hillary -- this is one life-long Democrat who will sit out the election rather than vote for her -- I have a hard time believing that was planned.
It WOULD, however, be interesting if someone could track down the woman who asked her the question that set her off. Now, if that question was planted...
Posted by: Traven | January 9, 2008 12:31 PM
I think your tin foil hat is on too tight.
Posted by: AJ | January 9, 2008 12:33 PM
Scratching my head over how this can qualify as news, but Yahoo news is showing that the supposed plant is voted Obama. And if this were scripted, then I think she deserves an Oscar along with Gore. C'mon - faking genuine emotion has never been HRC's strong suit.
Posted by: DB | January 9, 2008 12:42 PM
How about adding that she had been on the TODAY SHOW that same morning saying that women have all these "emotions" that need to be expressed, and then suddenly, hours later, she expresses them?
Yes it was planned. It's probably also genuine. The two aren't mutually exclusive, as anyone who does extensive public speaking can tell you.
Posted by: geml | January 9, 2008 12:49 PM
Whether it was actually planned or a momentary lapse based on tiredness is less important than the rest of what Paul says, which is spot on. Women now in their 50s and up, maybe 45 and up, can all remember being bullied by men like Chris Matthews. As an Obama supporter I felt some sympathy for her, and if I had been one of those people still making up my mind, I might have voted for her just to stick it to those media jerkfaces. (And let's not forget Gloria Beoerger and Mo Dowd here either, those Heathers we all hated in high school.)
It detracts not a bit from the voters to say that the media's breathlessly and gleefully declaring Hillary dead may have given her the margin she needed to pull ahead. These very shallow and self-absorbed twits really need to deal with their shallowness, pettiness and biases. And Matthews should be canned.
Posted by: Mimikatz | January 9, 2008 12:50 PM
I'm sure you're right. Of course, the whole Monica Lewinsky thing was planned too. As Chris Matthews said, HRC would never have won a senate seat had not the wives of millions of New York skirt-chasers marched en masse to vote her into office as a poke in the eye to their own straying spouses. Yeah, that's the ticket. Bill & Hill set the whole Lewinsky thing up, plus the crying thing, etc. These incidents were all part of their well-scripted plan to dominate American politics for the now and forever, amen.
Posted by: Betty Cracker | January 9, 2008 1:00 PM
You are a moron.
And, by the way, I am an Obama supporter
Posted by: Janice | January 9, 2008 1:06 PM
I think they’re actually right. It was planned.
The human colon is 5-6 feet long. I'd say you needed every last inch to pull this out of your backside.
I'm voting Edwards in the primary but as a woman this whole hypothesis you've spun is ridiculous and unworthy of serious consideration.
Posted by: corinne | January 9, 2008 1:14 PM
It makes no difference whether it was planned or spontaneous. What made it powerful was the reaction of the media/pundits to it. I'm a male, Bill Richardson supporter and when I saw the ABC news story about her "inability to control her emotions" I was absolutely disgusted by the media's patronizing tone. If I was in NH, I might have switched my vote. If I was undecided, I definitely would have switched.
So if the Clinton campaign is so sharp that they knew the "Tweety" effect would kick in, God bless 'em!
Posted by: Not the senator | January 9, 2008 1:17 PM
Probably all politicians successful at this level know how to use emotion at appropriate times. The point is that Hillary is treated differently on this - when others do it, it is business as usual, but when Hillary does it is something that has to be exhaustively analyzed, and given the bias of the media, interpreted unfavorably.
Posted by: skeptonomist | January 9, 2008 1:19 PM
Dear Paul,
Maureen Dowd hasn't resigned her position at the Times yet. You can stop applying for it.
Best,
CJR
Posted by: CJR | January 9, 2008 1:30 PM
Paul Waldman, the Tears Whisperer.
Posted by: Kevin K. | January 9, 2008 1:53 PM
My God, talk about misogyny, not just about Hillary but about women voters.
Listen, you jerk, women are not such fools as all that -- as Hillary herself very well knows, even if you don't -- to go, "Awwww," and vote for someone because they teared up.
What is happening, and what may have had a significant effect in NH, is that particularly older Dem. women, who generally like Hillary, are fed up to the gills with creeps like you and Matthews and the brutal treatment Hillary has been subjected to and decided that a punch back against that bias was worth throwing-- especially given that most of us think all three top Dem candidates would make pretty terrific presidents.
I'm planning to vote for Edwards, but the more of this garbage I see, the more I'm tempted to vote for my second choice, Hillary, so I can watch all your heads explode.
Arrrrggghhhh.
Posted by: gyrfalcon | January 9, 2008 2:10 PM
More mind-reading tripe. Oh, how sick of it I am.
P.S. I support Obama.
P.P.S. Fix your CAPTCHA, *please*.
Posted by: Ben Rosengart | January 9, 2008 2:35 PM
"I have so many opportunities from this country. I just don't want to see us fall backwards."
If the thought of falling backwards (as we are) doesn't make you feel the pain, sonny, you are either stupid or dead.
True, it's the only thing she's said all year that worked for me, but you're just being a pig.
Posted by: Avedon | January 9, 2008 2:40 PM
I don't know whether she was for real or not, I haven't the slightest idea. However, the woman who asked the question reported, "10 seconds of Hillary, the caring woman" and then an immediate stiffening back into political posture. I'm afraid that does make it sound a little exaggerated, if not specifically planned and executed.
Posted by: Jenni | January 9, 2008 2:40 PM
That's like saying that FDR knew that aircraft carriers would dominate the Pacific War, so he let the Japanese destroy the battleships in Pearl Harbor.
Posted by: American Citizen | January 9, 2008 3:03 PM
There is literally nothing in Hillary Clinton's 16 years of life on the national stage that would lead anyone to think she is capable of turning into Meryl Streep at a moment's notice.
The only reason this is even discussed is because some people are complete slaves to the narrative that everything Hillary does is scripted, calculated, poll-tested and focus-grouped. It's shameful when progressives buy into that crap.
Posted by: Steve | January 9, 2008 3:19 PM
Wow, what utter cynicism, with an ugly taste of mysogyny. This analysis is entirely backwards-looking, post-facto, and frankly mean-spirited. Specifically:
1. When Clinton was under siege at the White House (whether for the health plan or Bill's mistakes), she simply retreated to the inner compound and didn't make herself available to the press. But she can't take a day off when running for prez. It's far more likely she was simply exhausted and beaten-down.
2. A show of emotion is an extremely tricky thing that could have easily backfired. I bet if even a single tear had run down her face, messing up any makeup, and leading to actual sniffles, there would have been a much more negative reaction. That is a tremendous risk to take, probably much larger than necessary.
3. Thus you're basically saying that Clinton is a natural, superstar actor than can precisely calibrate every twinge of emotion.
4. Even if Clinton and her inner camp decided beforehand that it was best to let loose some emotion, there's nothing to say that such a show of vulnerability wasn't genuine. You're basically saying that not only did they plan it (down to the last cracked strain in her voice), but that because they decided it was ok, her emotions are entirely unreal. That's the kind of insensitive (often male) dismisal that makes most women I know very upset.
By the way, I'm a man and I support Obama.
Posted by: polthereal | January 9, 2008 3:26 PM
I partially agreed.
The initial bit of emotion was genuine. But HRC realized in an instance how valuable the moment was. So she milked it.
Is this not obvious to you people?
She utterly shameless. (Is this not obvious to your people?)
Posted by: Peregrine | January 9, 2008 3:41 PM
"If all went well, this would pull women toward her in two ways – sympathy for the struggles she has undergone and is undergoing, and anger at the men who were now in effect saying that she shouldn’t be president because she’s acting like a woman."
Wow! So undecided women voters either let their bleeding hearts or their vengence get in the way of rational thought. It couldn't be, in your manliest of manly worlds, that these late deciding voters cast their votes based on the issues, could it? No, I didn't think so. If your mother came of age in the 70's, then you should be expecting a call from her, sending you to the corner for time out.
Posted by: my2petpeeves | January 9, 2008 3:49 PM
1. My suspicion is it was planned for the reasons stated by Waldman.
2. Nonetheless, Hillary and her supporters are absolutely right that she is being constantly held to sexist double-standards in this campaign, whether it is about showing emotion, the way she dresses, showing cleavage, being "cold and calculating and ambitious", or anything else.
3. NONE OF THIS SHOULD HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH PICKING A PRESIDENT. Hillary shouldn't be disqualified because she shows emotion or doesn't show emotion. Hillary should also not get votes just because sexist men are attacking her. As she herself says in the moment she is crying, the election is about far more important things than that.
We really need to get past this idea that these sorts of personality-driven issues should determine who becomes President. We just elected someone who a lot of Americans thought was a really great guy for 2 terms. What we got is the Iraq War. And, not to put to fine a point on it, but Hillary's support for that war is a lot more important than whether she cries or doesn't cry, or what she wears, or any of these other things.
Posted by: Dilan Esper | January 9, 2008 4:37 PM
This is a provocative piece; thanks for it. It may be attributing too much instrumentality to a moment defined retrospectively by the media but maybe not since campaigns know that they have to produce the nightly sound bite. The contingency of the moment -- her tiredness, the context and audience -- was genuine but clearly once it happenned the campaign knew exactly what it had unleashed and tied it into a consistent storyline that resonates with many women ("found my voice" etc). The problem is that message plants the Dems on turf which leaves little margin for error in November. She could win it but Obama's plants them on discursive turf which is clearly more favorable to creating a majority (and helping other Dems get elected).
Posted by: discourseanalysis | January 9, 2008 4:58 PM
paul, you should put this in tandem with a transcript of comments hillary made earlier that day. earlier, she had made comments where it was clear she was playing the gender card.
put in context, it's obvious she was looking for a 1, 2 punch.
her camp has floated rumors of obama being a drug dealer, engaged in bigoted muslim baiting, sent out mailers that lied about obama's record, etc. etc. but yet media has framed obama as the attacker, suggesting he has been "ganging up" on hillary, when that wasn't the case.
corporate media owes the clintons big time for bill having signed the telecom act.
the woman is running a morally bankrupt campaign.
Posted by: jello | January 9, 2008 5:28 PM
However, they couldn't have planned the misogyny in the days leading up to Misty. If it was planned, it was within the same day or at most, two days.
Posted by: donna darko | January 9, 2008 6:36 PM
I wonder if it could have been a soft or flexible plan. I could imagine a strategy session (or internal monologue)in which Hillary resolved to "show a bit of emotion" when the right opportunity appeared.
Posted by: Asp | January 9, 2008 7:10 PM
Oink, oink!
Posted by: Meridy | January 9, 2008 10:14 PM
OF COURSE it was planned. She effortlessly segued from tears into an attack on Obama in the very next sentence! But people only saw the extended clip if they watched it in real time (as I did) or if they saw Keith Olbermann.
Hmm. The ONE time she cries in her entire political career is right before the 5pm final news cycle on the final day of the NH campaign in her darkest hour?
Posted by: Wendy | January 10, 2008 12:07 AM
It was she started parroting John Edwards script "it's personal" that made me less than sympathetic. And today she made the top ten list of most corrupt politicians of 2007 on Judicial Watch. Also on the list were Rudy, Reid and senator Craig.
Posted by: Marnie | January 10, 2008 11:10 PM