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TWO PRE-SUPER TUESDAY POINTS.
- Josh Patashnik tries to make the case that Survey USA will look worse after we see which of the dueling polls is closer to being right in California, and makes some good points. I have no idea if he will turn out to be right , but I do think that his analysis makes clear that one shouldn't be too hard on the pollsters. The primary particularly emphasizes questions of turnout that are inherently unknowable but are pretty much the whole ballgame. The result will prove that either Zogby of Survey USA can't predict the precise composition of a primary electorate, but that's not about scientific polling per se; getting it wrong means they made a bad prediction not that their polls were wrong per se.
- Marty Lederman makes a good point about the potential effects of a near-deadlock after Super Tuesday. I would like to think that if one candidate goes into the convention with a significant lead that the superdelegates would think enough about their party not to throw the nomination to the other candidate. It's hard to say that it would be "undemocratic" otherwise because the primary process is so arbitrary, but it's still better on balance for the leader going in to be the leader going out.
COMMENTS (3)
Lets not kid ourselves, if super delegates decide on a winner other than the one ahead in pledged delegates, there's really no way we're going to win in November. The hardcore supporters on both sides of this fight dislike each other intensively, the last thing the Democratic party needs is for any of them to have an excuse not to vote.
Posted by: Anonymous | February 5, 2008 5:55 PM
If Obama is in the lead by a 20 delegates partly as a result of his support from Republicans or independents I would have no problem with superdelegates in the Democratic Party siding with the person with the most votes from Democrats. The rules which were established in August of 2006 do not mandate that superdelegates support the candidate leading in pledged delegats.
Posted by: party | February 5, 2008 6:19 PM
The superdelegates are not throwing a race from one candidate to the other under any circumstance (other than a convention that gets past the first ballot). You remember how Democrats felt "disenfranchised" after Florida in 2000? Just wait until some party official tells them their primary votes don't count.
Posted by: Dilan Esper | February 5, 2008 9:15 PM