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THE MOST INFLUENTIAL MOMENTS IN THE RACE THUS FAR.

It feels negligent not to be blogging away about Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont today, but really -- what can one say? When I got on a plane to Des Moines on Dec. 28, I thought I'd be witnessing something decisive over the next eight days. And indeed, Barack Obama's Iowa victory, from this vantage point, was one of the biggest turning points in this race: It proved he could win big among white voters, proved he could mobilize first-time voters and Independents, and proved his organizing chops were more than just a talking point.

But today, on March 4, despite numerous shifts in the contours of this race, it almost seems as if Iowa and the subsequent 40 states and territories to have gone to the polls hardly matter: We're still looking at Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, arguing about the role gender and race will play in this election, and wondering if Clinton will risk everything, even the unity of the Democratic Party, in a delegate race all the way to the Convention. So here, as an Election Day distraction, is a list of the top 10 most influential moments or issues in the Democratic campaign so far, from my perspective, and in no particular order. Do you agree? What did I miss? What's overplayed?

1. Obama's Iowa victory -- see above.

2. Hillary's New Hampshire "comeback" -- showed her strength among women, and their disgust with the media's treatment of her.

3. Obama's deficit among Latino voters, and his too-late focus on fixing the problem: It cost him Nevada, California, and maybe today, the popular vote in Texas.

4. John Edwards' exit from the race, leaving no doubt that this year's Democratic nominee, just by being in the competition, will make history.

5. And while we're talking about Edwards, we can't underestimate his policy influence. He's the reason we ever began arguing about health insurance mandates; Edwards simply insisted that universality be the Democratic standard.

6. Obama's sweep of caucus states. This guy can organize, and he's applying Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy to presidential politics.

7. Hillary surrogates play the race/drugs card in South Carolina and around the country, strengthening Clinton fatigue on the Left.

8. The ongoing fight -- with possible huge battles yet to come -- over whether to seat Convention delegates from Michigan and Florida, which broke DNC rules by moving their primaries forward, and thus disenfranchised their own citizens. Clinton agreed to the rules, but now she doesn't want to play by them.

9. The economy and jobs overtake the Iraq war as voters' number one concern. It's too late to help Edwards, but Clinton attempts to seize the mantle in Ohio.

10. Obama's success with voters under 30. But can he use his popularity among young people not just to win elections, but to imbue an entire generation with progressive principles?

--Dana Goldstein



COMMENTS

I am too tired to check this out for veracity, but I can tell you that the FIRST event that occurred that changed the dynamic of the race was the October 30th debate (or thereabouts) where Clinton "bungled" (not really) the debate question from Pumpkinhead asking about illegal immigrants and drivers licenses in NYC. Much, much less noticed was that the following week or so Obama gave the same answer, sans any criticism.

This event sticks out to me and I know it sticks out to Somerby (bigtime!).

If I remember correctly, I think Clinton bungled the driver's license question in part because Dodd caught her off guard. It was kind of like she gave one answer, Dodd said "No, it's a privilege," and then she back tracked and changed what she said. I can't remember-- is that the same debate that Edwards used to construe her as a triangulator?

Obama (ooh, ooh, he's long winded) gave more around about explanation that didn't come off like a flip / flop.

It's the flip / flop triangulating you can't trust her to tell you what she's going to do thing. This seems a clear case where it's not so much some ephemeral "sexism" that's doing her in. It's her inescapable Billary-ness. With regard to which-- she's running on it.

Also, I think the drug thing went all the way back to Iowa.

Can't forget President Clinton's role in the steady collapse of the Clinton campaign.

The turning point in the race is today. Obama is done. If anyone is paying attention, it's clear that the Rezko connection is going to sink his campaign. He is more thoroughly compromised than can be imagined:
http://the-reaction.blogspot.com/2008/03/why-obama-should-withdraw-now.html

If that isn't bad enough, rumors are floating around Chicago that "illegal campaign financing, outright theft of American taxpayer money, and shady connections to a country who's economic and physical future is dependent upon who will be the next President." are just the tip of the iceberg. Even if none of it is true, Obama is toast. It's time for him to drop out and back Clinton for the general.

Even without his history of corruption coming to light, Obama has no chance. The exit polls show Clinton headed for double digit wins today, and the superdelegates and FL and MI delegates give Clinton more than enough delegates for the nomination. The fairy tale is over.


EARLY EXITS:

OH: 58 Clinton, 37 Obama, 4 JRE
TX: 56 Clinton, 43 Obama

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