CZECH COLLAPSE CREATES MORE DIFFICULTY FOR EUROPEAN MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD.

Internal political developments in the Czech Republic may affect the Obama administration's calculations on missile defense, and on economic stimulus. Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek lost a no-confidence vote in parliament yesterday, possibly forcing his resignation. Topolanek has been an advocate of deploying a US anti-ballistic missile system on Czech territory, but the rest of the Czech political class is rather less enthusiastic; Topolanek decided not to push for ratification of the treaties necessary for the missile defense system out of fear that he would lose those votes. This morning, Topolanek further complicated the situation by announcing that President Obama's stimulus measures "will undermine the stability of the global financial market," and represented a "way to hell." The Czech Republic currently holds the rotating Presidency of the European Union, giving Topolanek's comments an unusually high profile. The Obama administration has pushed for more vigorous European effort at economic stimulus, and a number of independent analysts have questioned Europe's relatively slow response to the economic crisis.

None of this is likely to make President Obama feel very generous towards the Czech Prime Minister. As Obama has already indicated a profound lack of excitement about the European anti-ballistic missile system, it's unlikely that the Czechs will be able to force any cooperation from the United States on the issue. However, the difficulties in the Czech Republic may make the "grand bargain" between Russia and the U.S. over the issue of missile defense less likely. As I argued last month, bargains involve giving something in order to get something; it's becoming increasingly apparent that the European ABM is DOA, with our without Russian concessions on Iran.

--Robert Farley