SHAKE-UP IN NY-20.

The special election to claim Senator Kirstin Gillibrand's recenly vacated seat in congress took a curious turn yesterday after an independent poll revealed that Democrat Scott Murphy had climbed to within four points (45 - 41, MOE 3.7) of Republican Jim Tedisco -- remember, the guy who won't tell people what he thinks of the stimulus bill? Now Tedisco, who led by 12 points three weeks ago, is shaking up his campaign and blaming the National Republican Congressional Committee for negative ads in the district. The GOP candidate plans to "distinguish 'the real Jim Tedisco' from the partisan negativity his own national party has displayed in the campaign so far."

"We're going to be running it right here from Albany," Tedisco said. "I'll be fully in charge of it." It's a statement that must raise questions among voters about who was running the campaign before. Though the district leans conservative and most expected the Tedisco, a leader in the state assembly, to win by dint of his party and name recognition, a spirited campaign effort from Murphy has resulted in gains among independent voters. Whether the conflict between Tedisco and the NRCC is real or a manufactured campaign tactic -- national Republicans say they'll still "hold Scott Murphy accountable," so their advertisements will still be up in the district -- it's a move that conjures up comparisons to John McCain's presidential campaign, which repeatedly unveiled "the real McCain."

But the broader question is what the race -- and the stunt -- mean nationally. Both parties are spending serious money in the district, and Democrats have parachuted in top national operatives. Some argue that RNC Chairman Michael Steele's job hangs in the balance; winning the special election will give the GOP a much-needed talking point, but now if the race goes the Tedisco's way it will be difficult for national Republicans to claim it was their message that resonated, given their own candidates' disavowal of their strategy. On the other hand, if the Democrats can stay close in the R+3 district, they can probably win the ensuing spin battle, and if they take the seat it will be a major win for the party and could be seen as an important endorsement of the government's economic policy, the central theme in this race.

The election will be held on March 31, just 18 days from today.

-- Tim Fernholz