The Meek Shall Inherit The Earth?
The general election scenario that would give Democrats the best chance at winning the seat is a straight on contest between Rubio and Meek. The Republican leads 44-39 in that match up, and because there are a lot more undecided Democrats (20%) than Republicans (12%) the race is realistically probably even closer than 5 points. Rubio benefits from a more unified party with 77% of Republicans already committed to voting for him compared to 67% of Democrats who say they'll vote for Meek. But Meek leads 41-34 with independents, a very rare outcome in this political climate when independents are usually leaning strongly toward the GOP.
With the ultra-conservative Rubio leading in the primary and Crist strenuously denying that he'll run as an independent, this trend is surprisingly good for Meek.
-- Tim Fernholz
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