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WARGAMING THE GENERAL ELECTION.
Back in late February, SUSA released a report that used polling data from all 50 states to game out hypothetical Clinton-McCain and Obama-McCain general election matchups. The results showed each Democrat would win, but in quite different fashions. Unfortunately the polls had small samples and large margins of error which is problematic since many states had margins of victory less than the margin of error of the state poll (see a more in-depth analysis here).
Another study (both of these were recently highlighted at the Monkey Cage) used a variety of current polls to compile a 50-state electoral map that not only showed a more narrow Obama win, but also a Clinton loss to McCain (most current version here).
Just to make all this even more confusing, electoral-vote.com has its own matchup maps, these generated from recent polls in each state. The results are strikingly unconvincing. Clinton loses to McCain 304-203 (31 tossups) and Obama loses to McCain 303-226 (9 tossups). The problem with these matchups is that many of the polls are old (data from late February) and from less reputable sources. Perhaps the lesson is simply that predicting electoral results this far in advance is a rather futile exercise. The results are neither consistent nor wholly convincing.
But that doesn't mean we should stop doing it. The pols can tell us which states are likely to be competitive. In the tossup column, Obama and Clinton have six states in common (IA, MI, NM, NH, OH and PA), which leaves FL (27 EVs) for Clinton but not Obama to contest and CO, MO, NV and VA (38 EVs) for Obama but not Clinton. Not surprisingly, this meshes well with each candidate's campaign pitch: Obama says he'll bring more states into play for Democrats; Clinton argues that we can't afford to gamble on an untested candidate and uncompetitive states. It's hard to see what McCain's strategy is at this point, but it's clear, from this data at least, which candidate he would rather face.
--Mori Dinauer
COMMENTS (11)
Close results....especially considering that McCain has raised about half as much as each of the Democrat candidtates.
But of course, the Democrats were the ones that wanted to get big money out of politics, weren't they?
Posted by: El Viajero | April 3, 2008 4:23 PM
Does it really make sense to just look at polls for this kind of thing? Lots of information can be found from looking at old election results, demographics, and so forth. Polls are one useful measure, obviously, but polls this far out aren't terribly commanding in terms of what they mean.
They're just a lot easier than doing the hard work of actually understanding how a state ticks.
Posted by: John | April 3, 2008 4:35 PM
Why no love for fivethirtyeight.com?
It's far superior to electoralvote.com.
Posted by: Jim D | April 3, 2008 4:38 PM
A close race in march, when one candidate has locked up the nomination and repaired the wounds of the primary, means it's not likely to be all that close come November.
John McCain should be ahead by 10 points right now, on the backs of angry Hillary supporters alone.
Posted by: Soullite | April 3, 2008 5:59 PM
But that doesn't mean we should stop doing it.
Actually, it does. Am I the only one who remembers the polls showing Rudy Giuliani crushing Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup?
Posted by: Jinchi | April 3, 2008 6:50 PM
YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)
If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary's than they had ever been before or since.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. :-)
Best regards
jacksmith...
Posted by: jacksmith | April 4, 2008 3:04 AM
DON'T BE DUPED !!!
Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses from early on. Because they feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. And because they feel that a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket would be unbeatable. And also because with a Clinton and Obama ticket you are almost 100% certain to get quality, affordable universal health care very soon.
But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. NOW! is the time. THIS! is the moment you have all been working, and waiting for. You can do this America. “Carpe diem” (harvest the day).
I think Hillary Clinton see’s a beautiful world of plenty for all. She is a woman, and a mother. And it’s time America. Do this for your-self, and your children’s future. You will have to work together on this and be aggressive, relentless, and creative. Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are living through now.
Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than it shows. And higher than Obama’s. She also leads in the electoral college numbers that you must win to become President in the November national election. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!
As much as 30% of Obama's primary, and caucus votes are Republicans trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses where it is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating help.
Hillary Clinton has been OUT MANNED, OUT GUNNED, and OUT SPENT 4 and 5 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous, and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton. YEP! she's a fighter by God!
If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in November he will be slaughtered. Because the Republican vote cheating help will suddenly evaporate. All of this vote fraud and republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much stronger candidate than he really is. YOUNG PEOPLE. DON’T BE DUPED! Think about it. You have the most to lose.
The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. I suggest a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket. Everyone needs to throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.
I think Barack Obama has a once in a life time chance to make the ultimate historic gesture for unity, and change in America by accepting Hillary Clinton’s offer as running mate. Such an act now would for ever seal Barack Obama’s place at the top of the list of Americas all time great leaders, and unifiers for all of history.
The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and caucuses.
Fortunately the Clinton’s have been able to hold on against this fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic comebacks of Hillary Clinton’s. Only the Clinton’s are that resourceful, and strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have ever seen.
Sincerely
jacksmith...
Posted by: jacksmith | April 4, 2008 3:06 AM
Jacksmith, would you stop spamming threads with absurd crap that has been debunked a long time ago?
"But of course, the Democrats were the ones that wanted to get big money out of politics, weren't they?"
Moron, there is a difference between $40 million from 40 "big money" donors and $40 million from 400,000 donors. Guess which the Democrats are most interested in "get[ting] out of politics"? And guess which is most corrosive and antithetical to representative politics?
Posted by: PaulB | April 4, 2008 9:51 AM
Close results....especially considering that McCain has raised about half as much as each of the Democrat candidtates.
Actually, that's why these results are not that great for McCain.
Depending upon your source for statistics and posited Democratic candidate, McCain is projected to be either ahead or behind in a competitive race at this moment. When the Democrats decide upon a nominee, that's when fundraising dollars will really come into play.
If I were McCain, I wouldn't count on making a contest out of New Jersey or Oregon, and I wouldn't think Wisconsin or Virginia were in the bag. No matter what the polls look like now, the Democrats will have the resources to not only hold on to what they have but also to play offense. McCain may not.
Obviously, actual campaigning may mean more than money, but to the extent that the campaigns are equally matched this could well be McCain's high-water mark.
Posted by: cminus | April 4, 2008 10:21 AM
if you're stealing shtick from jeff foxworthy:
You Definitely Are An Idiot!
Posted by: mencken | April 4, 2008 5:05 PM
Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton)...
Did you actually write that 4 times in support of Hillary Clinton's "35 years of experience".
You might be an idiot if you think that's a convincing argument.
Posted by: Jinchi | April 4, 2008 5:10 PM