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The group blog of The American Prospect

MUGABE ON HIS WAY OUT?

This is very exciting:

The opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is in talks with advisers to President Robert G. Mugabe of Zimbabwe, amid signs that some of those close to Mr. Mugabe may encourage him to resign, a Western diplomatic source and a prominent Zimbabwe political analyst said Tuesday. The negotiations about a possible transfer of power away from Mr. Mugabe come after he apparently concluded that a runoff election would be demeaning, a diplomat said.

A resignation by Mr. Mugabe, one of Africa’s longest serving leaders, would be a stunning turnabout in a country where Mr. Mugabe has been accused of consistently manipulating election results to maintain his lock on power.


Robert Mugabe has pretty much singlehandedly gutted the economy of Zimbabwe, and has lately done severe damage to the political system, as well. This article suggests that one of the central remaining obstacles is negotiations with Mugabe's security chiefs, who are attempting to carve their own place in a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe. In any case it's quite exciting, although if Mugabe attempts to hold power by trick or by force a serious crisis could erupt.

--Robert Farley



COMMENTS

The Guardian has been liveblogging the proceedings, and they seem markedly less optimistic (link - http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2008/04/zimbabwe_poll_crisis_live.html ).

A quote: "It should be pointed out that Makumbe has suggested before that Mugabe is on his way out. In 2006 he told the New Yorker that Mugabe had run out of solutions.

" 'People see a paper tiger and they think it's real. In fact, it's scared, wetting itself, with its tail between its legs.'

"Tsvangirai's people have denied that talks are taking place."

From the South Africa-based Mail & Guardian, with reporting from Zimbabwe:

Zim's MDC in talks with military
Chris McGreal | Harare, Zimbabwe | 01 April 2008 05:13

President Robert Mugabe is under growing pressure to recognise defeat in Zimbabwe's presidential election as the opposition held talks with military and security officials on Tuesday.

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) declined to discuss details of contacts with the military, but one party source said that the MDC was in touch with senior officers, which shows that support for Mugabe within the ruling Zanu-PF is beginning to erode after the shock of what appears to be a comprehensive defeat in Saturday's presidential and parliamentary elections...

..."Mugabe and some of those around him decided to try to brazen it out by fixing the results," said a senior MDC source. "But Zanu-PF is not united. It has taken a big blow that it didn't expect and there are important people in the party who recognise that they cannot go against the will of the people. They are shocked and do not have the spirit to go down fighting for Mugabe."

Senior Zanu-PF officials have conceded that Mugabe may have lost to Tsvangirai in the presidential ballot but that the vote was so close there would have to be a run-off election.

The MDC continued to say that Tsvangirai has the outright majority necessary for a first-round win. The party says its calculations give it 60% of the presidential vote to 30% for Mugabe. Independent poll monitors give Tsvangirai between 50% and 55% of the vote.

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=336007&area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__africa/

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