IS ARLEN SPECTER SCREWED?

Last night, the Senate Democratic Caucus voted for Arlen Specter to lose his seniority on all committees; instead of having the clout of a 28-year member, he'll have the clout of, say, newly elected Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska. This despite Majority Leader Harry Reid's apparent promise that the Republican-turned-Democrat would maintain some of his seniority, or gain it back after his election in 2010. While Reid might have been able to get his colleagues to show some forbearance toward the latest member of the flock, Specter's various politically tone-deaf comments about supporting Norm Coleman and denying Democratic priorities made that extremely unlikely.

What will Specter do about this -- whine a little, sure, but then what? It's not like he can go back to the GOP; he's made clear his top priority is re-election, and the only path to that is with Democratic support. If he's not casting the right votes on the president's agenda, Democrats can always unleash Joe Sestak, who has been making plenty of noise about going after the seat. No one should forget that Sestak's first political mentor was Rahm Emanuel, then the DCCC chair who convinced the retired admiral to run for office, now White House chief of staff. Emanuel developed a close if tempestuous relationship with Sestak, whom he considered one of his star candidates in the '06 cycle. They know each others' cell phone numbers and aren't shy about expressing themselves. I wouldn't say that Sestak has WH permission for his mentioning campaign, but if the WH was concerned about his freelancing, Emanuel will let him know.

The latest poll for Sestak isn't good but likely reflects name recognition more than anything else. Both the White House and Sestak know that the insurgent congressman will only have a chance if Specter doesn't make good on his promises to support at least some of the Democratic agenda, and in that case, their interests are aligned. Despite WH Press Secretary Robert Gibbs' statements yesterday about the president's full support of Specter, there's about a year between now and real brass tacks time for the 2010 elections.

-- Tim Fernholz