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The group blog of The American Prospect

IS THE ELECTORATE TILTING "PRO-LIFE?"

Earlier this week, Ross Douthat's latest column and a new Pew survey garnered attention for claiming that more Americans than ever support legal restrictions on abortion. This morning, Gallup released a poll with the cat-nip headline, "More Americans 'Pro-Life' than 'Pro-Choice' for First Time." You will be hearing about this. According to Gallup, one year ago, 50 percent of Americans considered themselves "pro-choice" and 44 percent "pro-life." But this year, Gallup's numbers have flipped, with 51 percent of Americans identifying as "pro-life" and 42 percent as "pro-choice."

Yesterday, Nate Silver did an admirable job of culling survey results on abortion over the last decade, showing that these latest number are, quite likely, outliers. What's more, while it's true that Generation Y is less firmly pro-choice than Gen X or the Baby Boomers, we are more pro-choice than our grandparents in the 65+ crowd. That is politically significant, because those oldest voters are the ones we are gradually replacing in the electorate. That means the United States is likely to remain a moderately pro-choice nation well into the future.

So what could account for the recent Pew and Gallup polls showing a significant change since last year in people's self-identification on "choice"? Explanations are speculative, especially since abortion has not been much in the news; concern about the economy, torture, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have been far bigger stories. Silver suggests the Palin family may have affected some voters, but I'm skeptical. Let's face it, Trig is pretty cute, but his parents are adults. Meanwhile, a lot of Americans wondered, out loud, whether 17-year-old Bristol Palin even considered an abortion. I don't think there are very many people who see the Palins as role-models.

A more likely explanation is that endless coverage of rare, late-term abortion -- combined with complacency due to abortion's long-term legality -- has made many Americans "squishy" on the issue, open to various restrictions while still supportive of general access to the procedure. In addition, Barack Obama hasn't gone out of his way to identify as "pro-choice" on the national stage, so the term may signal, to many young voters, a sort of old-fashioned, 1970s attitude. But in general, I think we should be wary of reading too much into two polls. Longer-term trend lines confirm that we are living in a country divided on abortion but with a clear preference for choice in most circumstances.

--Dana Goldstein



COMMENTS

Holy roller for a mother, adrenaline addict for a father, unmarried mother at 18. Yep, needs to be shipped to a ghetto for schooling in life.

Feel sorry for her but she is living in the creme de la creme. Try this in a little lower social level where mom is unemployable.

Here's the question I have: How did the poll standardize the numbers of Republicans, Independents and Democrats?

If they used old figures for that, they would have oversampled Republicans, given the recent changes, and they would also have oversampled more extreme opinions because the Republican party is shrinking towards its base.

The Gallup people mentioned that the change largely comes from conservatives and Republicans describing themselves as pro-life. The number went from 60% to 70%

Gallup’s poll is missing an important part of the equation: Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and Generation X. Google Generation Jones, and you’ll see it’s gotten a lot of media attention, and many top commentators from many top publications and networks (Washington Post, Time magazine, NBC, Newsweek, ABC, etc.) now specifically use this term.

Unlike pollsters who are up with current generational trends, Gallup is still using old school generational delineations. By lumping part of GenJones with Boomers, and part with GenX, Gallup’s generational data is seriously flawed. Several top pollsters---including Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen--- have shown that GenJones’ political behavior and voting patterns are clearly distinct from its surrounding generations.

It is important to distinguish between the post-WWII demographic boom in births vs. the cultural generations born during that era. Generations are a function of the common formative experiences of its members, not the fertility rates of its parents. Many experts now believe it breaks down this way:

DEMOGRAPHIC boom in babies: 1946-1964
Baby Boom GENERATION: 1942-1953
Generation Jones: 1954-1965
Generation X: 1966-1978

Here is a relatively recent op-ed in USA TODAY about GenJones as the new generation of leadership:
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20090127/column27_st.art.htm

One poll proves nothing because of statisical flukes not to mention bias in how quwstions are posed.

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'' That means the United States is likely to remain a moderately pro-choice nation well into the future ''

This is wrong and quite frankly an outrageous fantasy

Connect the dots and you will see why pro choicers are sliding

Most Americans whom are pro life believe abortion should only be done when a mother's life is in danger , are against federal funding of abortion and do not like the whole idea of paying taxes for it

Pro lifers in a very twisted way are more liberal than Pro choicers

Don't you see ? There are Single Mothers for Life and Gays for Life

Pro choicers believe in individualistic ends and this would go great with fiscal conservatism and it would be oddly considered '' socially conservative ''

Yet the pro choicers are loosing

Pro choicers become selfish , far too individualistic and ignore the humanity of the child and even ignore the mother many times

Why do you think pro lifers are surviving in a culture that was socially liberal since 1960 ( right now it's turning socially moderate ) ?

Why do you think even when marriage is failing on a federal level and prayer in schools is not going the pro life movement is growing more and more ?

The pro choicers are touching on the feeling of harshness and too much individualism

Not enough community and humanity

The importance of abortion fell from 34 % to 8 % today in Democrats

Don't you see ? Pro lifers are liberal

And they are for the preservation of that goodness

Pro choice = Choice , individual and don't preserve

Pro life = Humanity , community , life and preserve

Pro lifers kinda remind me of the classical liberals

Pro choicers are modern liberals

If you think I'm joking look at the connections between homophobia and pro choice

'' It's just a 'fetus' ''
'' It's a thing ''
'' It's your choice ''

And these aren't even my thoughts

My liberal friends tell me this

America is turning socially MODERATE with pockets of secular social conservatism , social libertarianism , moderate social liberalism and moderate religious social conservatism

Meaning neither socially liberal nor socially conservative

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