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IMMIGRATION STRIKES BACK. To say a bit more on this, Reid and McConnell have struck a deal they think will shepherd the bill through the Senate. The key is a pay-to-play structure, in which precisely 22 amendments will be offered, and every Senator who offers an amendment agrees to vote for cloture in return. This, theoretically, will get the bill through cloture -- and Reid and McConnell wouldn't be bringing it back if they believed it would fail a second (well, technically, a fifth) time.

The next steps look like this. Reid could bring the bill to the floor as early as Monday, through a Rule 14 motion, wherein the Majority Leader pushes the legislation to the floor. A filing for cloture could come on Wednesday, and the vote could hit on Friday.

The question, of course, is what's different this time -- why will the bill succeed when it previously failed? There are a couple answers I'm hearing: One is that Bush is back (he was at the G-8 during the last push), and he's leaning hard. The second is this pay-to-play system. A surprisingly large amount of opposition came because various senators felt they were being shut out of the debate -- and anger was intensified because the next agenda item was the no-confidence vote on Gonzales. To close debate on the immigration bill for that the no-confidence vote caused serious resentment. Third is Trent Lott, who sees redemption in this bill, and says he's whipped enough GOP votes to clear cloture. Fourth is a counter-backlash from business and pro-immigration groups furious about the bill's original failure. Fifth is internal pressure from GOP strategists and party-builder types who don't want to lose the Hispanic vote for, well, ever.

Will these pressures pass the bill? Who knows? Reid and McConnell, however, would not be bringing it back up if they thought they were facing a second embarrassment. There's a second question, also, as to what the bill will look like when the amendments are closed. Dorgan's amendment to sunset the guest worker program remains in the legislation, and the other senators would be presumably less eager to enter into the pay-to-play structure if they didn't think they could alter the legislation, too.

--Ezra Klein



COMMENTS

I have no idea if this will be a good bill, but anything that upsets this many nutjobs can't be all wrong.

"Reid and McConnell, however, would not be bringing it back up if they thought they were facing a second embarrassment."

Politics is often a zero-sum game. What is an embarrassment for Reid is often not an embarrassment for McConnell, and vice-versa.

Failure to get cloture last time around seemed clearly to be what Reid wanted, which is why he pushed forward the Dorgan gambit. Thus it seems beyond odd to me to describe it as an embarrassment for Reid.

I think McConnell wouldn't be trying to bring it back if he saw disaster ahead, but I think Reid is happy to let the GOP bloodletting go on as long as they like whether the bill lives or dies; lots of lefty types aren't really that invested in this bill, and failure won't arguably hurt the Dems when it can be blamed on the "fences and deportations" crowd on the right. And they are still furious and ready to show it. Nor has the bigger picture changed: time has only shown up the weaknesses in this bill, and it remains an awkward combination of bad elements no one really likes. It's pretty baldly clear that the pro-undocumented folks on the left are all but counting on the most egregious enforcement and punitive elements to get stripped out in the House version; if that happens, I'd bet money that the conference bill would die in the Senate, again. I'd rather see it die; but seeing it die with another month of the GOP tearing itself apart? Not sure if that's necessarily a bad thing.

At this point, I just hate Ezra Klein. I'm really starting to just hate all Democrats, and a year and a half ago I counted myself proudly among their number. Well, maybe not proudly after the MCA. They can go to hell, if they care this little about low income Americans. There's never anything in these bills to help them, only empty promises that something will done down the road. After 2 decades of these promises, there has still been nothing of substance done about wage stagnation. Yet democrats will try without end to offer the business community more cheap labor to further depress wages. The Democratic party can go to hell, this bill proves they don't really give a damn about anything but serving the powerful.

That post is all about the politics of the bill, not the wisdom of it.

Wouldn't the Democrats be able to get a more favorable bill after the 2008 election? It's looking like a Democrat will win next year, and I imagine the Democrats will win a few more seats in the Senate as well. It may be difficult to pick up any seats in the House because of gerrymandering, but it's not the house that has trouble passing a bill.

soullite, the illegal aliens we are most concerned about are the ones who are already here, have been here, and who not even Mickey Kaus proposes deporting. Bringing those people out of the shadows, so that employers can't exploit their illegal status to hire them on the cheap and violate their rights as workers, benefits low-skilled citizens far more than any enforcement effort can ever hope to.

Twenty-two amendments? What kind of hideous mutant legislation is going to emerge from that? I don't even like the bill as it stands; what kind of crap is going to get slopped onto the bill at the end of that mess?

I'm glad that Dorgan is sunsetting the guest worker program, but the current legislation still changes immigration rules in a way that'll break up the families of low-skilled workers. On top of that, it places such onerous and ridiculous obstacles on the "path to citizenship" - including the pointless "touchback" trip - that the "earned amnesty" section of the bill is nearly worthless. This bill is worse than the status quo. Let it die and make a new amnesty bill in a couple years when we've got a better Congress.

At this point, I just hate Ezra Klein. I'm really starting to just hate all Democrats, and a year and a half ago I counted myself proudly among their number. Well, maybe not proudly after the MCA. They can go to hell, if they care this little about low income Americans.

Maybe Ezra thinks it would actually be good for low income Americans if there weren't an undocumented underclass of millions of people working at less than the prevailing wage and taking many of the jobs the low income Americans might otherwise compete for.

Maybe it's not feasible to deport the current round of illegals. (I don't believe that, myself; Eisenhower did a fine job of this with Operation Wetback, which caused a massive boost to American wages.)

But the American people aren't willing to accept amnesty because it won't be the end of the road. The last time there was amnesty, the same arguments were advanced - we have to do something about all the illegals who are already here. But that wasn't the end of the road. Those illegals were legalized, and the corporations then brought in EVEN MORE illegal low-wage scabs. We're getting into a pattern where amnesty is almost routine every 20 years or so. And this bill offers no effective enforcement strategy, no way to ensure that these illegals will be the LAST ones. Many people don't even want them to be. They don't believe in nationalism and think we shouldn't have borders. Those people are dangerous kooks.

Pushing through the bill is grossly antidemocratic. By and large, Americans know that immigration and globalization has been hurting them for decades and they want it to stop. But right now our political process is under the control of corporate overlords who want an unlimited supply of cheap labor. The Democratic Party must be purged of their influence - and of the La Raza race baiters as well. We need to return to the old Democratic Party, the Democratic Party of FDR and LBJ that actually represented the AMERICAN working class.

Josh says
Eisenhower did a fine job of this with Operation Wetback

A fine job? Operation Wetback was a civil rights nightmare, and still moved less than 100,000 illegal immigrants. That's a drop in the bucket.

also

I have never seen a good cite for this. Most people agree that Eisenhower was worried about corruption, not raising wages for Americans.

Josh says
Eisenhower did a fine job of this with Operation Wetback

A fine job? Operation Wetback was a civil rights nightmare, and still moved less than 100,000 illegal immigrants. That's a drop in the bucket.

also

Operation Wetback caused a massive boost to American wages

I have never seen a good cite for this. Most people agree that Eisenhower was worried about corruption, not raising wages for Americans.

Looking at the number of deportees fails to see the entire picture. Many illegals left on their own when they realized that the authorities would no longer be turning a blind eye to them.

As for motive, it's irrelevant. Regardless of intent, limiting the supply of illegal labor boosted the wages of American citizens.

This article has some excellent information on Operation Wetback:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0706/p09s01-coop.html

This country will be better off once it becomes part of Latin America. Then all those wingnuts will have to shut the hell up.

Yes, Antonio, if only the US could have the social cohesion, egalitarianism, and economic vibrancy of Guatemala, everything will be awesome!

"the illegal aliens we are most concerned about are the ones who are already here, have been here, and who not even Mickey Kaus proposes deporting. Bringing those people out of the shadows, so that employers can't exploit their illegal status to hire them on the cheap and violate their rights as workers, benefits low-skilled citizens far more than any enforcement effort can ever hope to."


Well, unless I really misunderstand it, that's not at all what the bill does. What the bill does is bring them out of the shadows and LEGITIMIZES their abject servitude, which just make exploiting unskilled American citizens that much more okay.

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