"IT IS NOT ABOUT US."
Thus concludes a senior administration official on the situation in Iran. And that SAO is right -- as is Spencer -- in observing that the last thing the Iranian opposition needs right now is an aggressive response from the United States. The tone struck by the administration thus far has been the appropriate one: questioning the announced results of the election, condemning human rights abuses, but not prejudging the outcome or explicitly allying themselves with opposition candidate and "real" election winner Mir Hossein Mousavi. For one, as many have observed, a Mousavi victory will not necessarily change the balance of interests in the region, but even if he will put a more pragmatic face on Iranian policy-making, explicit U.S. support will hurt his popular legitimacy and give Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies credence in claiming authenticity. This last point will probably strike many as pretty obvious, but it's apparently never occurred to Bill Kristol.
More interesting is this: Throughout the election process, sober-minded types loved to recall that at the end of the day the real power in Iran would continue to be held by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. But the regime's apparent decision to alter the election results has suddenly thrown even Khamenei's position into question, giving rise to the possibility for a truly game-changing shake-up. But until we see how events turn out -- and it does seem the that regime is starting to backtrack a little -- the most that United States policy-makers should do is express solidarity with those demonstrating peacefully and condemn the human rights abuses of the state.
-- Tim Fernholz
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COMMENTS (28)
We would look particularly foolish given our own recently rigged contests (the 2000 presidential election as well as the 2008 Democratic nominating process); we aren't actually the bastions of voting authenticity required for such judgements here.
Posted by: Anonymous | June 15, 2009 3:16 PM
WTF? I'm no wingnut. There are not many people to the left of me but let's be honest, the White House cannot sit on their hands while Iran implodes. We don't have to get beligerent but we also can't go all wobbly and pretend we don't have any vital interest in the eventual outcome.
Posted by: ny nick | June 15, 2009 3:24 PM
There was a rigged 2008 nomination process? Is this a "Obama beat the odds" thing or a "poor, abused Washington Establishment" thing?
Posted by: Punditus Maximus | June 15, 2009 3:29 PM
Iran isn't imploding. There are protests in one section of a single city.
People who think this is a country-wide crisis or that the regime is going to fall are hyperventilating based on the tweets of a few rich college kids.
Posted by: soullite | June 15, 2009 3:30 PM
what part of "it's not about us" means "we don't have any vital interest in the eventual outcome"? also, remember when the dulles boys refused to "sit on their hands"? how'd that work out?
Posted by: Anonymous | June 15, 2009 3:31 PM
that picture was taken a few hours after the tehran phillies won the iranian world series
Posted by: cha cha cha | June 15, 2009 3:34 PM
There was a rigged 2008 nomination process? Is this a "Obama beat the odds" thing or a "poor, abused Washington Establishment" thing?
I thought it was a "poor, abused Florida and Michigan thing." Which is still stupid, but not as stupid.
Posted by: Cyrus | June 15, 2009 3:35 PM
I chat with many nationalities on a game website.
Iranians are very repectful and warm, so much so that I don't mind losing to them. :)
The last one I played with would not tell his country at 1st (he could not get his flag to display) because, "You will hate me."
All I have encountered do not dislike the US (maybe because they are young), just the reverse and are eagar to interact with Americans.
Now Turks .....
Posted by: agave | June 15, 2009 3:37 PM
I thought it was a "poor, abused Florida and Michigan thing."
Your easy recognition supports the point well enough. Thanks.
Posted by: Anonymous | June 15, 2009 3:51 PM
There are protests in one section of a single city.
And reports of protests in lots of other cities. Your position's starting to look a bit stale, soullite.
Posted by: pseudonymous in nc | June 15, 2009 3:58 PM
The "it's not about ut" position is correct. Wew have interests all over teh place. But fundamentally it's not our country. They get to do what they want. I said that in 1979 when my dad was yelling at me that "Carter lost Iran!" No, he didn't, because we never "had" Iran. We don't have it now.
Our regional interests are served by being able to open a dialog with whoever is on power. They are not well served by pointing a gun.
Posted by: Daddy Love | June 15, 2009 4:10 PM
I should preview more often.
Posted by: Daddy Love | June 15, 2009 4:11 PM
wouldn't it be more accurate to say the ahmadenijad regime is imploding and not the country of iran?
Posted by: Anonymous | June 15, 2009 4:11 PM
Florida and Michigan have no one but the leaders of their state Dem parties to blame. And guess what? They got to have their delegates seated anyway. Break the rules, pout and fume, never get punished.
That's why we need The American Plan for the 2012 primaries -- so we don't wind up with Michigan holding its 2012 primaries in August of 2011: http://www.fairvote.org/?page=965
Posted by: Phoenix Woman | June 15, 2009 4:36 PM
It would be more accurate to say "we don't know what the f--k is going on there right now."
We need to seriously keep our cool here. If there is a revolution brewing, it would make this an extraordinarily dangerous time, especially for Iran, but possibly for us as well.
Let's assume that the young masses (median age in Iran = 27) are really roiling and want to "overthrow" the established order, which I do not suggest is happening nor that it is what they want. In 1979, they could coalesce around the clergy, which represented basically the only organized group around which they could coalesce. If they revolt against the clergy, with whom can they ally?
The revolutionary atmosphere in general is one in which anything can happen. The military could step in or take over. Iran could be invaded. The clergy could ruthlessly retaliate with an ever more conservative and oppressive clampdown. The clergy could offer reforms that preserve their power (a la China).
Who knows? We need to at least keep our options open and our (official) mouths shut for now.
Posted by: Daddy Love | June 15, 2009 4:45 PM
we also can't go all wobbly
By "go wobbly", do you mean "not threaten military intervention"?
I am horribly dismayed by the course things appear to be taking in Iran right now. But 99% of what happens in Iran (or any country) is going to be determined by the people living in that country.
It's too bad that many Americans seem to be burdened with the idea that a crisis within a distant land is primarily a test of our moral character.
Posted by: MaximusNYC | June 15, 2009 5:03 PM
Psuedo, my position is that I don't care and that those of you who do are either tools or morons. This won't affect us. You're either cheering on a right-wing corporatist because you like fascism or because you're too stupid to realize this guy isn't any kind of a democrat. This is a power struggle between members of an oligarchy, not a struggle of freedom against tyranny.
But hey, go back to your 'bomb Iran' candy-land fantasies. We get all kinds of 'reports'. 10 hours ago people like you were trumpeting fake election results to contradict the official fake results.
Posted by: soullite | June 15, 2009 5:50 PM
Really, if you don't get why folks like me are behaving this way, you seem to forget the last decade.
Someone needs to push back against you so-called liberals aid and abet neocons becaue you've got a bug up your asses about a middle eastern country. You're one of those guys who was cheering when Obama withheld those torture photos and game rapists a pass, so don't pretend you've all the sudden learned the value of human rights.
Posted by: soullite | June 15, 2009 5:55 PM
"Iran isn't imploding. There are protests in one section of a single city."
I was in Moscow in August 1991 during the abortive putsch. Two streets over from where the action was at the Russian Parliament building, people were doing their shopping for bread and vegetables as if nothing was happening. And in that case, there were barely 20,000 appeared at the Russian Parliament in a city of 8 million.
The protests in Tehran, proportionately, are a heck of a lot larger. We'll know in 2-3 days what the upshot is: my guess right is that it's going to be hard for the Ahmedin-Nejad camp to calibrate the violence they'll need to stay in power.
When it comes down to it, Soullite, you're as parochial and blinkered as any redneck.
Posted by: Sock Puppet of the Great Satan | June 15, 2009 6:47 PM
I hope they have a civil war and overthrow this regime. But it isn't our business. It's their war not ours.
Pity we didn't have the sense to take to the streets in 2000 when our election was stolen.
Posted by: H. E. Baber | June 15, 2009 7:36 PM
Florida and Michigan have no one but the leaders of their state Dem parties to blame.
I suppose it's easier to forget that these were actual voters -you know, people? - when you personify the state names instead. Clever that...but not enough to claim moral superiority to Iran in this case.
Posted by: Anonymous | June 15, 2009 9:17 PM
Comparing the 2008 Democratic primary to the obvious election fraud in Iran is asinine and insulting to the Iranians currently risking their lives for democracy---and I say this as a Michigan resident denied the chance to vote for the candidate of my choice in the 2008 Democratic primary by my own state party leaders.
Posted by: mss | June 15, 2009 9:33 PM
and I say this as a Michigan resident denied the chance to vote for the candidate of my choice in the 2008 Democratic primary by my own state party leaders.
or did your candidate perhaps remove his name from the ballot at his own choosing, in order to reap the rewards later as happened? And you apparently speak for ALL the disenfranchised as well as have crystal balls looking into what's happening in Iran right now. Bravo, madam!
Posted by: Anonymous | June 16, 2009 2:25 AM
Heh, I see the Democratic primary deadenders are still going strong.
Anonymous, your argument isn't credible; it's also a year old and grown stale. If you had a legitimate point, things would be different.
As for this posting, I really thought "It Is Not About Us" referred to the rah-rah bloggers and twits here in America that think changing their webpage font color is on par with the actual democratic protesters.
Posted by: Slim Tyranny | June 16, 2009 8:51 AM
Anonymous, your argument isn't credible; it's also a year old and grown stale. If you had a legitimate point, things would be different.
When YOU have one feel free to write again. Um, a year old and stale doesn't change the process to legit, but thanks for playing.
My original point was to only say that, given, recent history, the US has no moral standing to question the legitimacy of Iran's election. So far, no one here has offered any evidence to dispute that.
Posted by: Anonymous | June 16, 2009 11:29 AM
The question of whether or not the 2008 Democratic primaries were rigged or not isn't the point here, people. Comparing what's going on in Iran to a minor fraud that may or may not have even happened here in the States is asinine at best, anyway.
However, comparing the Iranian election fraud to Bush stealing the 2004 race from Gore, now that's a bit more astute.
In any case, it would be rash and ridiculous of the US to go into Iran guns a-blazing over this when the mere fact that the populace isn't sitting back and letting Ahmadinejad have his fraud and eat it too is sign enough that times are changing for Iran and that the people there have had enough. Revolutions are rough, bloody, and ultimately necessary. Hell, we had one of our own, if you'll all remember your history.
Posted by: Kat | June 16, 2009 3:24 PM
Comparing what's going on in Iran to a minor fraud that may or may not have even happened here in the States is asinine at best, anyway.
However, comparing the Iranian election fraud to Bush stealing the 2004 race from Gore, now that's a bit more astute.
Um. Ain't no "may or may not" about it. Care to explain that magical difference between your two examples, other than that your candidate won?
Minor election fraud. Hah!Like a little pregnant I guess.
Posted by: Anonymous | June 16, 2009 4:05 PM
People who think this is a country-wide crisis or that the regime is going to fall are hyperventilating based on the tweets of a few rich college kids.
Posted by: ball valve | November 19, 2009 3:44 AM