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WHAT DID NORTH KOREA GET?
The purpose of American foreign policy is to advance American interests. Yesterday, the Obama administration's diplomatic overtures secured the release of two American journalists from North Korea, Laura Ling and Euna Lee, and created a temporary thaw in relations that could potentially be used to curb North Korean nuclear ambitions. What did North Korea get? A photo-op with Bill Clinton. This is the equivalent of Tiger Woods telling a 12-year-old they have a nice swing. A little flattery goes a long way with this regime.
This however, isn't enough for John Bolton:
I worry that the outcome is a lot better for North Korea than for the United States. I mean this is a classic case of rewarding bad behavior, the seizure of these two basically innocent Americans. Obviously all of us want to get them out but we want it done in a way that doesn’t increase the risks in the future for other Americans seized by North Korea, seized by Iran, seized by other despotic regimes and then turned into pawns to get senior officials like former presidents to come and legitimize the regime in order to get them out.
Even if we aren't able to capitalize diplomatically on this moment, I'd argue that the lives of Ling and Lee are worth it. As Spencer Ackerman writes, "No minimally serious cost/benefit assessment can result in a conclusion that the United States lost more than it gained here."
It's not clear what American interests would be served by a violent alternative, and the journalists' release could not have been secured by Bolton-style bullying. The White House secured a favorable outcome for the administration and for Ling and Lee. You'd think the purpose of American foreign policy wasn't to further American interests but rather to make conservative pundits feel like big swinging sausages. Anything that doesn't do that is a failure.
-- A. Serwer
COMMENTS (5)
I was hoping John Bolton would offer himself up to take the place of the two incarcerated reporters -- thus getting them back while at the same time retaining someone in captivity so that we wouldn't loose face.
Posted by: leo | August 5, 2009 11:43 AM
You've got to love "negotiation must have clear benefits for both sides" from a guy whose appointment to the UN was equivalent to hauling a six-foot-tall cast iron statue of a hand flipping the bird into the Assembly and propping it up in our seat.
Posted by: U.A. | August 5, 2009 11:44 AM
Bolton's an ass, no doubt -- and he's the last person anybody who wasn't giddy for WWIII would listen to on this subject.
That said, there is, behind the bluster, a very basic point that strikes me as valid -- that NK looked to turn this situation to its advantage, and now they and regimes like them may find themselves more likely to do things like this* again.
That doesn't mean -- by a long shot -- that the risk isn't worth it. This case is a good illustration of that.
*this = kidnap and hold ransom Americans and foreigners, etc.
Posted by: Point | August 5, 2009 1:29 PM
Bolton's also a little moronic in not thinking how this move, a small but nonetheless heartwarming story of a very powerful American standing up for unfairly imprisoned journalists might just play well with journalists across the world, and be a nice little photo-op for the US too. It may just be a rumor, I heard once that journalists have a lot of sway on public opinion.
Posted by: Philly | August 5, 2009 3:29 PM
regimes like them may find themselves more likely to do things like this* again.
That's unlikely. First of all regimes (and their surrogates) have been doing this plenty over the years. At any time there are a number of American that have been kidnapped or are being held hostage. This release appears to have been low-cost. So far there is no evidence that money or other resources changed hands (cf. Reagan, Ronald W.) Rational actors will realize that this is a pretty inefficient way to get a visit from one of the Clintons. If you are seeking a domestic political boost there are easier and more effective ways to make yourself useful to the Obama administration.
Posted by: rk | August 5, 2009 4:09 PM