IF OBAMA LOSES.
In this weekend's Washington Post, Randall Kennedy considers the effect of an Obama loss on the black community:
I anticipate that most black Americans will believe that an Obama defeat will have stemmed in substantial part from a prejudice that robbed 40 million Americans of the chance to become president on the day they were born black. They will of course understand that race wasn't the only significant variable -- that party affiliation, ideological proclivities, strategic choices and dumb luck also mattered. But deep in their bones, they will believe -- and probably rightly -- that race was a key element, that had the racial shoe been on the other foot -- had John McCain been black and Obama white -- the result would have been different.
This conclusion will be accompanied by bitter disappointment, and in some quarters, stark rage. In the early stages of the Obama campaign, his rival, Hillary Clinton, outpolled him among blacks in part because many didn't believe that he stood a chance of prevailing. Then came Iowa. And the near-victory in New Hampshire. When blacks realized that Obama's candidacy represented a serious drive for electoral power with an appreciable chance of success, they gravitated overwhelmingly to the Illinois senator.
There's been a some racist fearmongering from the usual suspects about riots about the aftermath of an Obama loss (something that is extremely unlikely). It's important to remember the utter skepticism among black folks that originally greeted the Obama candidacy, skepticism that melted away in the wake of his primary victory in Iowa. Black folks simply didn't see this coming, but I think there are few illusions about the possibility of his loss. In fact, I think black folks on the whole are probably more pessimistic about Obama's chances, and that pessimism will go a long way towards insulating people from disappointment if Obama loses. I think for the most part, people will shrug their shoulders and move on. There will be some people saying they "knew he couldn't win" who aren't saying that now.
If Obama does lose, count me among those who will count race as a major factor. The double standards in this race are absurd -- imagine if one of Obama's daughters had been pregnant, or consider that arugula, which is available to the rich and famous at any local McDonalds, is "exotic" while moose is now as American as Thanksgiving turkey.
I'm actually more concerned about what the reaction will be if Obama wins without a majority of the white vote. How will the conservative movement, whose standard-bearer this year has relied explicitly on identity politics and an exclusive conception of "Americanness," react? Will they spend the next few years arguing that Obama isn't "their president" and working to convince whites that they've been disenfranchised simply by virtue of a black man being in the White House?
--A. Serwer
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COMMENTS (18)
Will they spend the next few years arguing that Obama isn't "their president" and working to convince whites that they've been disenfranchised simply by virtue of a black man being in the White House?
Since the wingnuts were sporting "my President is Charlton Heston" bumper stickers ten years ago, I'm sure they'll do their best to discredit any Dem President.
I doubt they'll say that because Obama's black, that whites are somehow not represented - that would backfire, so they'll do it more indirectly. Kinda like Lee Atwater said.
But you'll know it when it happens. They'll say they didn't mean anything racial, and there'll be a patina of deniability, but it'll be BS.
Posted by: low-tech cyclist | September 15, 2008 3:29 PM
If Obama can't win -- a nonthreatening, basically moderate, inclusive, mixed-race male in a year that should be disastrous for the Republican (whites-only) party -- then NO black man can win, ever. Unless he's an Uncle Tom Republican, who would represent the beliefs of about 5% of African Americans.
Think of the contrast with 1992. Again, we have a sour economy, a Republican administration, an elderly, nonarticulate Republican nominee, and a young, knowledgeable, articulate Democrat. Yet at this point in 1992 Bill Clinton was ahead of George H.W. Bush almost 2 - 1 in the polls.
Posted by: captcrisis | September 15, 2008 3:47 PM
From Andrew Tobias:
This letter to the editor recently appeared in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
What if John McCain were a former president of the Harvard Law Review? What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating class?
What if McCain were still married to the first woman he said “I do” to? What if Obama were the candidate who left his first wife after she no longer measured up to his standards?
What if Michelle Obama were a wife who not only became addicted to painkillers, but acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?
What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard? What if Obama were a member of the “Keating 5”?
What if McCain were a charismatic, eloquent speaker?
If these questions reflected reality, do you really believe the election numbers would be as close as they are?
This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and minimizes positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative qualities in another when there is a color difference.
— Kelvin LaFond, Fort Worth
Posted by: John McCain: Serial Liar | September 15, 2008 3:49 PM
If Obama wins, it will almost certainly be without the majority of the white vote. But then, that's the same way Gore or Kerry would have won, too. Winning the majority of the white vote would be an electoral landslide for Dems, given the high polling numbers among blacks and Hispanics, and a landslide just isn't gonna happen.
Posted by: Chris O. | September 15, 2008 3:50 PM
I think it will prove what black people already feel--that they will never be a true part of the American family.
Obama has given them hope to believe that maybe they have been wrong. If he loses they will think, "Nope, I guess I was right. Only someone not descended from slaves would have been so optimistic."
But OTOH, Obama has shown such excellence that he has raised the bar for all who come after him. More will reach higher.
And maybe, as I type, there is a young black mother who will name her son John Smith. He will go to West Point instead of Hampton or Harvard. He will be raised in a predominantly white mainstream church. He will marry an elementary teacher with light skin. He will fight in the war against Venezuela. He will someday become governor and later Senator. He will snow board, bowl, play tennis and fish. He will write a highly regarded essay on the pathologies and limitations of his fellow African Americans. He may even execute a few. He will be smart but not too smart, folksy but not "common".
By the time he runs, he will be the establishment candidate. He will be a Republican, anti-tax, pro war and tolerant or even open to creationism in the classroom.
Posted by: kate | September 15, 2008 3:55 PM
I don't think a Democrat has won the majority of the White vote since LBJ.
Posted by: Arthur | September 15, 2008 4:01 PM
When McInsane loses, all the white f@cks will riot like hell. Pity the poor person born black or brown on that day. I'll be heading for Canada to get away from the militia skinhead neonazi freaks, that is about half the white population.
Posted by: Shakin and Quakin in Buffalo | September 15, 2008 5:29 PM
My elderly mother said she thought black people would riot if Obama lost. I reminded her that white republicans rioted in Florida in 2000 when they were afraid a recount would show Gore had won. Then I told her she should play it safe and vote for Obama.
Posted by: Th | September 15, 2008 6:42 PM
Color me optimist. I have a strong feeling that Obama will win this election.
He is a brilliant candidate, a better orator and a bigger visionary than Bill Clinton. He truly inspires many people. It is not a joke to raise 66 million dollars in a month.
Posted by: Ni | September 15, 2008 10:48 PM
"He is a brilliant candidate, a better orator and a bigger visionary than Bill Clinton. He truly inspires many people. It is not a joke to raise 66 million dollars in a month."
I disagree with all these things. Part of Obama's appeal is his race but he lacks the accomplishments to back it up.
I don't think race will be a major factor in his lost. If Colin Powell had run he would easily beat McCain. I don't see Obama is bigger visionary when his Senate career seem to suggest otherwise and his skills orator seem to melt away when he talks about policy (unlike Bill Clinton).
So far Obama has inspired a little less than half the Democratic electorate and the other half mostly voted for him because they are Democrats and because of the "lesser of two evils" argument.
I think if Obama loses it will because he didn't have Hillary Clinton on the ticket. A grand coalition of blacks, whites, women, working class people, independents and moderate republicans who would have crossed over to support a ground breaking ticket. But without you have dreams deferred and the rise of Sarah Palin. We might have lost some white male votes and some detractors of both Clinton and Obama but the benefits looking at how much they brought out would have lasted us for at least 12 years of electoral wins. Bill Clinton could have introduced Michelle to Georgia, North Carolina and advocated hard for why his wife and Obama are the future. But that is a lost opportunity.
Posted by: Cord | September 16, 2008 1:12 AM
Barack Obama is the kindest, bravest, warmest, smartest most wonderful human being and the best political candidate of our lifetime.
Posted by: Bennett Marco | September 16, 2008 2:51 AM
"Black folks"?? Are you serious?
Sounds like a condescending white boy trying to relate to the "black folks".
Get real.
Posted by: Barry | September 16, 2008 11:21 AM
oh please...if Obama loses it is because he was a weak candidate that was overhyped from the start...a candidate that due to the insane Democratic delegate and caucus system got almost as many or more delegates because of urban districting than the candidate that won the state and because his delegate count went up in winning republican states he has no chance of winning in the general election...and on top of that, the DNC took delegates he did not earn and pressured other delegates to select Obama for the sake of 'party unity'...
Obama's selection was based on a frail 'house of cards' and a wing and a prayer...Obama will lose because people were voting for other candidates and did not want the most inexperienced candidate in the race, despite his charisma...
Obama's career would have been better served to have gotten more experience in the senate and run on the Clinton/Obama winning ticket...
...as it is, even his supporters are complaining his campaign will not listen to anyone, must control everything from Chicago and pride and arrogance will be their downfall
...the DNC and the Obama camp will be the cause of his loss...they will have blown a sure thing...
Clinton/Obama was the winning combination
Posted by: S | September 16, 2008 1:16 PM
oh please...if Obama loses it is because he was a weak candidate that was overhyped from the start...a candidate that due to the insane Democratic delegate and caucus system got almost as many or more delegates because of urban districting than the candidate that won the state and because his delegate count went up in winning republican states he has no chance of winning in the general election...and on top of that, the DNC took delegates he did not earn and pressured other delegates to select Obama for the sake of 'party unity'...
Obama's selection was based on a frail 'house of cards' and a wing and a prayer...Obama will lose because people were voting for other candidates and did not want the most inexperienced candidate in the race, despite his charisma...
Obama's career would have been better served to have gotten more experience in the senate and run on the Clinton/Obama winning ticket...
...as it is, even his supporters are complaining his campaign will not listen to anyone, must control everything from Chicago and pride and arrogance will be their downfall
...the DNC and the Obama camp will be the cause of his loss...they will have blown a sure thing...
Clinton/Obama was the winning combination
Posted by: S | September 16, 2008 1:17 PM
What if Americans are finally waking up to the fact that Obama would destroy this country if he were elected. Just because you believe this does not make one racist. As a matter of fact all of this racial BS is turning off some obama supporters.
Posted by: yolo | September 16, 2008 2:21 PM
Let's see. In this comment thread, we have someone who believes Obama will destroy the country, and that same person is also comfortable stating what Obama supporters are thinking. We have a Clinton dead-ender. An inexplicable "Manchurian Candidate" reference. And a muddled argument about gender politics in the VP selections, including this gem - "[...] Obama has inspired a little less than half the Democratic electorate and the other half mostly voted for him [...]" Check your math, please.
Better trolls, please.
Posted by: albany layman | September 16, 2008 3:47 PM
Having a black President would be great - Michael Steele, J.C. Watts, Condoleezza Rice - I would be very glad about those leaders in the Oval Offcice. But Sen. Obama, with his miserable voting record, and his plans to use government as an instrument of wealth redistribution, rather than a means to secure life and liberty, is unacceptable regardless of his ethnicity. Anyone, of any color, of any gender, who favors the "progressive" agenda, will have a hard time getting my vote.
Posted by: MKS | September 16, 2008 3:51 PM
yolo wins the prize for "wackiest comment on the Interwebs" for this week.
No more submissions, please.
We have a winner.
Posted by: Chup | September 17, 2008 12:12 AM