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The group blog of The American Prospect

WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTALS OF OUR ECONOMY ANYWAY?

Much to everyone's excitement, John McCain this morning pronounced the fundamentals of our economy to be strong. Now obviously we're having a variety of economic troubles right now, as McCain conceded, but perhaps the underlying fundamentals are still doing well. So I did a little research and e-mailed some experts about what counts as a fundamental, and it turns out that, well, no, the fundamentals are not in fact strong. Some examples:

  • GDP. This is most likely what McCain was referring to; last quarter the U.S. posted 3.3 percent growth. The previous two quarters were .6 percent and 1 percent. 3.3 percent isn't bad but the previous two quarters were awful. We also still haven't seen the final report from last quarter. In any event, one quarter of growth isn't conclusive.
  • Unemployment Data. Currently, unemployment is at 6.1 percent, or about 9.4 million Americans, and has been increasing. A measurement that reflects people who cannot find full employment or who have been unable to find employment after 15 weeks would put the rate at 10.7 percent. These are high rates -- the highest since 2003.
  • Real Median Income. The median income of all Americans has actually gone down $324 since 2000 -- the first time it hasn't risen since at least 1969. This reflects the drop in real wages.
  • Consumer Confidence. Up a little in the last two months -- 56.9 percent, with only 13.2 percent saying business conditions are good -- but still at it's lowest level since 2003.
  • Inflation. Inflation has been increasing -- 5.6 percent -- but my understanding is that while this development isn't great, there is no need to be worried right now.
  • The Markets. These markets are down. Uh -oh.
  • Deficits. The U.S. deficit is currently $389.4 billion, double what it was last year. Our trade deficit, reflecting that the U.S. imports far more than it exports, has grown in the last year to $62.2 billion.

Do you think the fundamentals of our economy are strong?

--Tim Fernholz



COMMENTS

What McCain means is that a depression can actually be good for the beer business.

So you got your guns but you can't afford your mortgage, what then? When will Americans wake up from the illusion of the GOP Wizards? Republicans are terrible on Economics and they are terrible on National Security and they have been terrible stewards of the Earth. They have Led us into a Fake & Phony war and have yet to fully implement the recommendations of the 911 Commission to keep this country safe and secure. That is not being Strong on National Security! Ground Zero is still a Dark Hole and an open Wound and a symbol of Republican failed polices! We are in an Economic meltdown and Enough is ENOUGH! Let’s expose the myth, deception and lies of the Wizards—GOP (Grand Opposition Party)! Let’s get off the Yellow Brick Road of lies and deception and realize that the power lies within the people to so produce a working government for the people not a government hiding behind a Curtain of corporate greed and special interest groups! They have failed the American people and they have failed themselves. There is no lasting prosperity for thieves and liars and the wrong one does will eventually come back to be reckoned with. This is their reckoning. Even Alan Greenspan has said Americans cannot afford the $3.3 trillion dollar tax cuts proposed by Senator McCain which is not surprising since McCain has admitted knowing nothing about the Economy and told Detroit auto workers their jobs would not be coming back. He cannot even envision a future of 21st Century cars run on solar or another greener more cleaner alternative fuel? And would McCain's Social Security bill on Privitization be subject to the same fate as Lehman Brothers? Yikes! That is not Change we can believe in!

Now the Grand Wizard, McCain, who is 72 years old has allegedly put his Country First and nominated for V.P. someone totally lacking in national and foreign policy experience, who would be a heart beat away. Woodward in his recent book “The War Within” states that the two sleeping giants when someone takes the oval office come January 2009 will be Iraq and Afghanistan, something Bob Woodward says Bush was disconnected from. Can you imagine that, a President so disconnected from a war he asked Americans to die for? Sadly, there will also be another Giant to face—that of the economy. Brokaw said to Sen. Schumer on Meet the Press Sunday past—I thought when one picks a V.P. pick that they pick the most qualified candidate, referring to Obama not picking Clinton and choosing Biden instead. This goes both ways and McCain did not pick the most qualified person in fact he picked the least. A president will have the Weight of the World on his or her shoulders. Unfortunately for this Country McCain has made a very bad judgment call and a terrible risk. May be he did not use his good judgment in this pick but something less honorable. Barack and Biden are ready to lead and to take up that weight. I do not think McCain and Palin are ready for such a daunting task. We need true leadership and not a false and deceptive wizard giving lip service to lies and deceit instead of truth and light. If we pull the Curtain back from our eyes, we will see he has no Power and McCain the Grand Wizard, is not the person he says he is!

And lastly, all those who fear if they pick Obama/Biden will have to give up their guns is a false/negative. What does having a gun and hunting mean, if their are no jobs to go to? If gas at the pump is $7.00 a gallon? What does it matter if food is sky high and one is unable to prepare even the most basic meals. What does it matter if you get sick and you have no health care—unable to afford a doctor or even medicine? What does it matter if you have your Gun but yet cannot afford the mortgage payments on your home? What does it matter if through a war mentality World War III breaks out and possible nuclear annihilation? Will your guns matter then? We must deal with real issues and not superficial things that will not matter to us in the end and we wished we had of chose wisely instead of through fear, beguilement and deceipt!

One problem with using GDP as a measure of the economy is that it includes payments for mistakes. Exxon Valdez cleanup? Increases GDP. Iraq War? Increases GDP. Bear-Stearns bailout? Probably does, too.

Excerpts at Time's website make it seem like he citing the American labor force as fundamentals, which seems a direct cover of Gramm's "whiners" comment:

"But let me say something: this economic crisis is not the fault of the American people. Our workers are the most innovative, the hardest working, the best skilled, most productive, most competitive in the world. My opponents may disagree, but those fundamentals of America are strong."

When has the Obama campaign 'disagreed' with the account of the American worker produced here? I guess McCain can't very well say "My former advisors may disagree, but..."

"So you got your guns but you can't afford your mortgage, what then?"

Actually, the guns will come in handy when the sheriff comes to serve that notice of foreclosure.

Actually there are even mainstream economists who sincerely doubt the GDP numbers for 2nd quarter revised as they included a huge increase in corporate profits. They ask where outside of energy, could a big increase in profits originate in this economy.

Tim, thanks for calling attention to the U-6 unemployment measure published by the BLS. I have felt for years that it is a more accurate measure of the actual level of unemployment in the US.

"Actually, the guns will come in handy when the sheriff comes to serve that notice of foreclosure."

What, for suicide? Or just to make a bad situation worse. I like guns, but that's absurd.

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