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CHECKING IN WITH GAY MARRIAGE BANS.
"The Bradley Effect" has become well-known this year -- it refers to the gap between African American candidates' polling numbers and their success on Election Day. Is there also a Bradley Effect for LGBTQ issues?
That's what supporters of California's Proposition 8, a gay marriage ban, said when polling showed their initiative trailing by 17 points. But after a far-reaching television and radio ad campaign funded by national Christian conservative groups, the newest numbers, by SurveyUSA, show Proposition 8 with a slight lead, though one within the margin of error. The commercials featured a clip of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom saying marriage equality was here to stay "whether you like it or not." It was a smart campaign; nobody likes to be told their opinion doesn't matter. And, depressingly, the shift in support toward Proposition 8 was in large part due to younger voters deciding they supported the ban. Americans under 30 are supposed to be on the vanguard of increasing tolerance for gay people.
And there's more bad news. There are gay marriage bans on the ballot in Arizona and Florida, too. In both states, supporters of the bans have vastly out-spent the opposition, and the initiatives are likely to pass. Arizona is an especially interesting case; in 2006 it became the first state in the nation to reject an anti-marriage equality ballot initiative. But this year's initiative avoids penalizing unmarried hetrosexual couples, and thus has garnered more support.
--Dana Goldstein
COMMENTS (6)
in large part due to younger voters deciding they supported the ban.
You can read that as depressing, or you can read that as a sign that the poll might not be particularly accurate.
In either event, why is it that I keep seeing people fretting about the polls and not just linking to the damned No On 8 donation page? If you're frightened about this, give more money and encourage your friends to do the same.
Posted by: Mike B. | October 9, 2008 3:53 PM
The landscape is littered w/GOTV initiatives of this kind. They're the final GOP line of defense, and especially useful in a year when the GOP "base" willing to support the top of the ticket has shrunk to a tiny handful of abjectly gullible, uninformed, self-destructive chumps. Here in Washington we have Tim Eyman's conservative Waldorf Salad on offer, AKA proposition 985. It's chock-a-block full of juicy little morsels to attract otherwise undermotivated conservative voters to the polls. 985 will be of tremendous benefit to Dino Rossi. Who says legislation written by a guy in his bathrobe and sitting in his basement can't be a gamechanger?
Posted by: Doug Bostrom | October 9, 2008 3:53 PM
I get the LGBT. But what's with the Q? Has something new been invented in the last couple of years and I missed it?
Posted by: WR | October 9, 2008 6:02 PM
The "Q" stands for queer, as in genderqueer. I'm not that old (28), but it seems to be a way that the younger gays can distinguish themselves as unique from the rest of the LGBT people.
If I understand it correctly, genderqueer refers to someone who doesn't label themself as male or female. Rather, they identify as both genders or neither or something in between.
Posted by: Brandy | October 10, 2008 12:41 AM
This to me is a non-issue. If you don't agree with marriage equality, don't marry someone of the same sex! As a school teacher, I don't ever recall reading/citing the words..."with liberty and justice for ALL" and seeing the word, "except". Separate but equal does not, has not and should not work. We can not "eenie meenie miney moe" through our neighborhoods and point to who is allowed marriage or not. As a christian and American, I am for equality, love, and acceptance to all human life. God bless, Stephanie
Posted by: Stephanie Kansas | October 11, 2008 1:55 PM
God bless Stephanie Kansas! (and she even linked her name to the No On 8 site.)
Here's hoping more and more "Christians" step up and fight for equality.
Posted by: hillary hartley | October 14, 2008 5:27 AM